Next Ontario Provincial Election Projection


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last updated: Friday, May 13, 2022 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
PC Party Tory logo
34.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
37.1%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 37.1%
Change since last election: ▼3.4%
40.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
New Democrat NDP logo
21.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
23.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 23.5%
Change since last election: ▼10.1%
25.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
26.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 28.4%
Change since last election: ▲8.8%
30.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
4.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.9%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 4.9%
Change since last election: ▲0.3%
5.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
5.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▲4.3%
6.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
PC Party Tory logo
55 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
67
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 67
Change since last election: ▼9
76 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
New Democrat NDP logo
20 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
25
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▼15
34 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
22 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
31
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 31
Change since last election: ▲24
39 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
1 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm:Date:PCNDPLib.GreenOtherPoll weight:
Mainstreet2022-05-1236.622.628.65.270.192
Mainstreet2022-05-1138.821.128.15.46.60.061
Mainstreet2022-05-103922.327.14.670.038
Abacus2022-05-09382229560.085
Ekos2022-05-0933.925.429.35.16.30.107
Leger2022-05-09392526460.127
Innovative2022-05-09402428620.063
Mainstreet2022-05-0936.523.5294.96.10.024
Nanos2022-05-0835.423.730.44.26.30.065
Mainstreet2022-05-08372330550.016
Mainstreet2022-05-0736.324.230.24.64.60.011
Mainstreet2022-05-0638.324.529.1440.008
Mainstreet2022-05-0537.425.728.14.64.20.006
Leger2022-05-05362529550.007
Forum2022-05-04372629440.084
Mainstreet2022-05-0436.725.127.15.75.30.005
Innovative2022-05-02372429720.001
Leger2022-05-01352428760.004
Ipsos2022-05-01392526650.092
Mainstreet2022-04-2738.118.130.45.18.30.002

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name:IncumbentPCNDPLib.GreenOtherProjected
winner
AjaxPC30174535LIB
Algoma—ManitoulinNDP283815414NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillPC49113325PC
Barrie—InnisfilPC55122084PC
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedontePC451819117PC
Bay of QuintePC37232957PC
Beaches—East YorkNDP13354057LIB
Brampton CentreNDP30303028TOSS-UP
Brampton EastNDP38302625PC
Brampton NorthNDP35302537PC
Brampton SouthPC32203747LIB
Brampton WestPC49182426PC
Brantford—BrantPC33371848LEANS NDP
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundPC57121787PC
BurlingtonPC41192847PC
CambridgePC27223885LIB
CarletonPC56921410PC
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonPC43321735PC
DavenportNDP8493364NDP
Don Valley EastLIB24254335LIB
Don Valley NorthPC26125534LIB
Don Valley WestLIB3694834LIB
Dufferin—CaledonPC461523106PC
DurhamPC53152543PC
Eglinton—LawrencePC34144534LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—LondonPC45241966PC
EssexNDP51311143PC
Etobicoke CentrePC28135324LIB
Etobicoke NorthPC48153043PC
Etobicoke—LakeshorePC30313144TOSS-UP
Flamborough—GlanbrookPC33242968LEANS PC
Glengarry—Prescott—RussellPC46932310PC
GuelphGRN171721396GRN
Haldimand—NorfolkPC60141466PC
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockPC54201348PC
Hamilton CentreNDP9532288NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekNDP343317511LEANS PC
Hamilton MountainNDP20521747NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasNDP33302666LEANS PC
Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonPC47271448PC
Humber River—Black CreekNDP14275026LIB
Huron—BrucePC59141746PC
Kanata—CarletonPC37232649PC
Kenora—Rainy RiverPC52231653PC
KiiwetinoongNDP184716712NDP
Kingston and the IslandsPC17284284LIB
King—VaughanNDP6422635PC
Kitchener CentreNDP19402957NDP
Kitchener South—HespelerPC412320105PC
Kitchener—ConestogaPC36331679LEANS PC
Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexPC45251857PC
Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonPC58151458PC
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesPC53142445PC
London North CentreNDP33342275LEANS NDP
London WestNDP24521249NDP
London—FanshaweNDP21472066NDP
Markham—StouffvillePC5752935PC
Markham—ThornhillPC43103925LEANS PC
Markham—UnionvillePC6732423PC
MiltonPC44123356PC
Mississauga CentrePC31144438LIB
Mississauga East—CooksvillePC4973338PC
Mississauga—Erin MillsPC35173927LEANS LIB
Mississauga—LakeshorePC4754134PC
Mississauga—MaltonPC372223116PC
Mississauga—StreetsvillePC34124536LIB
Mushkegowuk—James BayNDP323519312LEANS NDP
NepeanPC36233046PC
Newmarket—AuroraPC5392945PC
Niagara CentreNDP324014411NDP
Niagara FallsNDP26432254NDP
Niagara WestPC60141466PC
Nickel BeltNDP14601638NDP
NipissingPC53231347PC
Northumberland—Peterborough SouthPC44192558PC
OakvillePC3345643LIB
Oakville North—BurlingtonPC5682835PC
OrléansLIB26155125LIB
OshawaNDP47271745PC
Ottawa CentreNDP13453148NDP
Ottawa SouthLIB19165744LIB
Ottawa West—NepeanLIB39183247PC
Ottawa—VanierPC14235336LIB
OxfordPC59171266PC
Parkdale—High ParkNDP8602454NDP
Parry Sound—MuskokaPC44260266PC
Perth—WellingtonPC57151468PC
Peterborough—KawarthaPC29293534LEANS LIB
Pickering—UxbridgePC48162854PC
Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokePC6791338PC
Richmond HillPC4044834LIB
Sarnia—LambtonNDP6020947PC
Sault Ste. MariePC323618311LEANS NDP
Scarborough CentrePC34223437TOSS-UP
Scarborough NorthPC43213025PC
Scarborough SouthwestPC16364144LIB
Scarborough—AgincourtLIB4973526PC
Scarborough—GuildwoodPC18225127LIB
Scarborough—Rouge ParkPC34253344LEANS PC
Simcoe NorthNDP45232075PC
Simcoe—GreyPC44132994PC
Spadina—Fort YorkPC17363755LEANS LIB
St. CatharinesNDP25333436LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryPC64101754PC
SudburyNDP194522410NDP
ThornhillPC5073337PC
Thunder Bay—AtikokanNDP26224039LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthLIB11304927LIB
Timiskaming—CochraneNDP224715411NDP
TimminsNDP22650311NDP
Toronto CentreNDP3414844LIB
Toronto—DanforthNDP9502966NDP
Toronto—St. Paul'sNDP13324933LIB
University—RosedaleNDP14383684LEANS NDP
Vaughan—WoodbridgePC5433625PC
WaterlooNDP22412575NDP
Wellington—Halton HillsPC6381873PC
WhitbyPC39282624PC
WillowdalePC39153834LEANS PC
Windsor WestNDP24501647NDP
Windsor—TecumsehNDP19491967NDP
York CentrePC49113037PC
York South—WestonPC18334423LIB
York—SimcoeNDP53132573PC

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