last updated: Friday, May 13, 2022 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
PC Party  | 34.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 37.1% Most likely vote total: 37.1% Change since last election: ▼3.4% 40.1% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
New Democrat  | 21.6% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 23.5% Most likely vote total: 23.5% Change since last election: ▼10.1% 25.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Liberal  | 26.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 28.4% Most likely vote total: 28.4% Change since last election: ▲8.8% 30.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 4.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.9% Most likely vote total: 4.9% Change since last election: ▲0.3% 5.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 5.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6%  Most likely vote total: 6% Change since last election: ▲4.3% 6.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| PC Party | 55 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 67 Most likely seat total: 67 Change since last election: ▼9 76 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| New Democrat | 20 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 25 Most likely seat total: 25 Change since last election: ▼15 34 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Liberal | 22 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 31 Most likely seat total: 31 Change since last election: ▲24 39 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Polling Firm: | Date: | PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-12 | 36.6 | 22.6 | 28.6 | 5.2 | 7 | 0.192 |  |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-11 | 38.8 | 21.1 | 28.1 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 0.061 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-10 | 39 | 22.3 | 27.1 | 4.6 | 7 | 0.038 | |
| Abacus | 2022-05-09 | 38 | 22 | 29 | 5 | 6 | 0.085 | |
| Ekos | 2022-05-09 | 33.9 | 25.4 | 29.3 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 0.107 | |
| Leger | 2022-05-09 | 39 | 25 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 0.127 | |
| Innovative | 2022-05-09 | 40 | 24 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0.063 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-09 | 36.5 | 23.5 | 29 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 0.024 | |
| Nanos | 2022-05-08 | 35.4 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 0.065 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-08 | 37 | 23 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 0.016 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-07 | 36.3 | 24.2 | 30.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 0.011 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-06 | 38.3 | 24.5 | 29.1 | 4 | 4 | 0.008 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-05 | 37.4 | 25.7 | 28.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 0.006 | |
| Leger | 2022-05-05 | 36 | 25 | 29 | 5 | 5 | 0.007 | |
| Forum | 2022-05-04 | 37 | 26 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 0.084 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-04 | 36.7 | 25.1 | 27.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 0.005 | |
| Innovative | 2022-05-02 | 37 | 24 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 0.001 | |
| Leger | 2022-05-01 | 35 | 24 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0.004 | |
| Ipsos | 2022-05-01 | 39 | 25 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 0.092 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-04-27 | 38.1 | 18.1 | 30.4 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 0.002 | |
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Trend lines of all regional polls published
| Riding name: | Incumbent | PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Projectedwinner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | PC | 30 | 17 | 45 | 3 | 5 | LIB |
| Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP | 28 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 14 | NDP |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | PC | 49 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 5 | PC |
| Barrie—Innisfil | PC | 55 | 12 | 20 | 8 | 4 | PC |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | PC | 45 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 7 | PC |
| Bay of Quinte | PC | 37 | 23 | 29 | 5 | 7 | PC |
| Beaches—East York | NDP | 13 | 35 | 40 | 5 | 7 | LIB |
| Brampton Centre | NDP | 30 | 30 | 30 | 2 | 8 | TOSS-UP |
| Brampton East | NDP | 38 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 5 | PC |
| Brampton North | NDP | 35 | 30 | 25 | 3 | 7 | PC |
| Brampton South | PC | 32 | 20 | 37 | 4 | 7 | LIB |
| Brampton West | PC | 49 | 18 | 24 | 2 | 6 | PC |
| Brantford—Brant | PC | 33 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 8 | LEANS NDP |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PC | 57 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 7 | PC |
| Burlington | PC | 41 | 19 | 28 | 4 | 7 | PC |
| Cambridge | PC | 27 | 22 | 38 | 8 | 5 | LIB |
| Carleton | PC | 56 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 10 | PC |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | PC | 43 | 32 | 17 | 3 | 5 | PC |
| Davenport | NDP | 8 | 49 | 33 | 6 | 4 | NDP |
| Don Valley East | LIB | 24 | 25 | 43 | 3 | 5 | LIB |
| Don Valley North | PC | 26 | 12 | 55 | 3 | 4 | LIB |
| Don Valley West | LIB | 36 | 9 | 48 | 3 | 4 | LIB |
| Dufferin—Caledon | PC | 46 | 15 | 23 | 10 | 6 | PC |
| Durham | PC | 53 | 15 | 25 | 4 | 3 | PC |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | PC | 34 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 4 | LIB |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | PC | 45 | 24 | 19 | 6 | 6 | PC |
| Essex | NDP | 51 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 3 | PC |
| Etobicoke Centre | PC | 28 | 13 | 53 | 2 | 4 | LIB |
| Etobicoke North | PC | 48 | 15 | 30 | 4 | 3 | PC |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PC | 30 | 31 | 31 | 4 | 4 | TOSS-UP |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | PC | 33 | 24 | 29 | 6 | 8 | LEANS PC |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | PC | 46 | 9 | 32 | 3 | 10 | PC |
| Guelph | GRN | 17 | 17 | 21 | 39 | 6 | GRN |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | PC | 60 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 6 | PC |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PC | 54 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 8 | PC |
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | 9 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 8 | NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP | 34 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | LEANS PC |
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | 20 | 52 | 17 | 4 | 7 | NDP |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | NDP | 33 | 30 | 26 | 6 | 6 | LEANS PC |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | PC | 47 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 8 | PC |
| Humber River—Black Creek | NDP | 14 | 27 | 50 | 2 | 6 | LIB |
| Huron—Bruce | PC | 59 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 6 | PC |
| Kanata—Carleton | PC | 37 | 23 | 26 | 4 | 9 | PC |
| Kenora—Rainy River | PC | 52 | 23 | 16 | 5 | 3 | PC |
| Kiiwetinoong | NDP | 18 | 47 | 16 | 7 | 12 | NDP |
| Kingston and the Islands | PC | 17 | 28 | 42 | 8 | 4 | LIB |
| King—Vaughan | NDP | 64 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 5 | PC |
| Kitchener Centre | NDP | 19 | 40 | 29 | 5 | 7 | NDP |
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | PC | 41 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 5 | PC |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | 36 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 9 | LEANS PC |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PC | 45 | 25 | 18 | 5 | 7 | PC |
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | PC | 58 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 8 | PC |
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | PC | 53 | 14 | 24 | 4 | 5 | PC |
| London North Centre | NDP | 33 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | LEANS NDP |
| London West | NDP | 24 | 52 | 12 | 4 | 9 | NDP |
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | 21 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 6 | NDP |
| Markham—Stouffville | PC | 57 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 5 | PC |
| Markham—Thornhill | PC | 43 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 5 | LEANS PC |
| Markham—Unionville | PC | 67 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 3 | PC |
| Milton | PC | 44 | 12 | 33 | 5 | 6 | PC |
| Mississauga Centre | PC | 31 | 14 | 44 | 3 | 8 | LIB |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | PC | 49 | 7 | 33 | 3 | 8 | PC |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | PC | 35 | 17 | 39 | 2 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | PC | 47 | 5 | 41 | 3 | 4 | PC |
| Mississauga—Malton | PC | 37 | 22 | 23 | 1 | 16 | PC |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | PC | 34 | 12 | 45 | 3 | 6 | LIB |
| Mushkegowuk—James Bay | NDP | 32 | 35 | 19 | 3 | 12 | LEANS NDP |
| Nepean | PC | 36 | 23 | 30 | 4 | 6 | PC |
| Newmarket—Aurora | PC | 53 | 9 | 29 | 4 | 5 | PC |
| Niagara Centre | NDP | 32 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 11 | NDP |
| Niagara Falls | NDP | 26 | 43 | 22 | 5 | 4 | NDP |
| Niagara West | PC | 60 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 6 | PC |
| Nickel Belt | NDP | 14 | 60 | 16 | 3 | 8 | NDP |
| Nipissing | PC | 53 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 7 | PC |
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | PC | 44 | 19 | 25 | 5 | 8 | PC |
| Oakville | PC | 33 | 4 | 56 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Oakville North—Burlington | PC | 56 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 5 | PC |
| Orléans | LIB | 26 | 15 | 51 | 2 | 5 | LIB |
| Oshawa | NDP | 47 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 5 | PC |
| Ottawa Centre | NDP | 13 | 45 | 31 | 4 | 8 | NDP |
| Ottawa South | LIB | 19 | 16 | 57 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | LIB | 39 | 18 | 32 | 4 | 7 | PC |
| Ottawa—Vanier | PC | 14 | 23 | 53 | 3 | 6 | LIB |
| Oxford | PC | 59 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 6 | PC |
| Parkdale—High Park | NDP | 8 | 60 | 24 | 5 | 4 | NDP |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | PC | 44 | 26 | 0 | 26 | 6 | PC |
| Perth—Wellington | PC | 57 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 8 | PC |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | PC | 29 | 29 | 35 | 3 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | PC | 48 | 16 | 28 | 5 | 4 | PC |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PC | 67 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 8 | PC |
| Richmond Hill | PC | 40 | 4 | 48 | 3 | 4 | LIB |
| Sarnia—Lambton | NDP | 60 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | PC |
| Sault Ste. Marie | PC | 32 | 36 | 18 | 3 | 11 | LEANS NDP |
| Scarborough Centre | PC | 34 | 22 | 34 | 3 | 7 | TOSS-UP |
| Scarborough North | PC | 43 | 21 | 30 | 2 | 5 | PC |
| Scarborough Southwest | PC | 16 | 36 | 41 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | LIB | 49 | 7 | 35 | 2 | 6 | PC |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | PC | 18 | 22 | 51 | 2 | 7 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | PC | 34 | 25 | 33 | 4 | 4 | LEANS PC |
| Simcoe North | NDP | 45 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 5 | PC |
| Simcoe—Grey | PC | 44 | 13 | 29 | 9 | 4 | PC |
| Spadina—Fort York | PC | 17 | 36 | 37 | 5 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
| St. Catharines | NDP | 25 | 33 | 34 | 3 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PC | 64 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 4 | PC |
| Sudbury | NDP | 19 | 45 | 22 | 4 | 10 | NDP |
| Thornhill | PC | 50 | 7 | 33 | 3 | 7 | PC |
| Thunder Bay—Atikokan | NDP | 26 | 22 | 40 | 3 | 9 | LIB |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 11 | 30 | 49 | 2 | 7 | LIB |
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP | 22 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 11 | NDP |
| Timmins | NDP | 22 | 65 | 0 | 3 | 11 | NDP |
| Toronto Centre | NDP | 3 | 41 | 48 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Toronto—Danforth | NDP | 9 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 6 | NDP |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | NDP | 13 | 32 | 49 | 3 | 3 | LIB |
| University—Rosedale | NDP | 14 | 38 | 36 | 8 | 4 | LEANS NDP |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | PC | 54 | 3 | 36 | 2 | 5 | PC |
| Waterloo | NDP | 22 | 41 | 25 | 7 | 5 | NDP |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | PC | 63 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 3 | PC |
| Whitby | PC | 39 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 4 | PC |
| Willowdale | PC | 39 | 15 | 38 | 3 | 4 | LEANS PC |
| Windsor West | NDP | 24 | 50 | 16 | 4 | 7 | NDP |
| Windsor—Tecumseh | NDP | 19 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 7 | NDP |
| York Centre | PC | 49 | 11 | 30 | 3 | 7 | PC |
| York South—Weston | PC | 18 | 33 | 44 | 2 | 3 | LIB |
| York—Simcoe | NDP | 53 | 13 | 25 | 7 | 3 | PC |
