Next Ontario Provincial Election Projection


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last updated: Wednesday, June 1, 2022 at 23:40 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
PC Party Tory logo
35.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
38.8%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 38.8%
Change since last election: ▼1.7%
42.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
New Democrat NDP logo
21.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
23.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 23.4%
Change since last election: ▼10.2%
25.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
23.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
25.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 25.4%
Change since last election: ▲5.8%
27.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
6.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.9%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.3%
7.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5.5%
Change since last election: ▲3.8%
6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
PC Party Tory logo
62 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
79
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 79
Change since last election: ▲3
82 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
New Democrat NDP logo
19 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
26
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 26
Change since last election: ▼14
35 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
14 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
18
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 18
Change since last election: ▲11
33 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
1 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm:Date:PCNDPLib.GreenOtherPoll weight:
Forum2022-06-0140.323.224.56.55.50.105
Mainstreet2022-06-0138.922.824.29.44.70.113
Research Co.2022-06-01392326660.113
Ekos2022-06-013723.524.78.76.10.113
Abacus2022-06-01402227470.08
Ipsos2022-05-31412524640.096
Mainstreet2022-05-3135.423.926.29.25.30.028
Leger2022-05-30402425560.094
Innovative2022-05-30342429850.047
Mainstreet2022-05-3039.322.526.86.450.018
Mainstreet2022-05-2936.623.527.26.85.90.012
Counsel2022-05-2839.622.525.17.15.70.075
Mainstreet2022-05-2837.323.226.37.16.10.008
Mainstreet2022-05-2739.120.826.57.85.80.005
Mainstreet2022-05-2638.321.626.97.65.60.005
Angus Reid2022-05-25382426750.055
Mainstreet2022-05-253623.526.18.55.90.004
Mainstreet2022-05-2435.323.127.286.40.003
Leger2022-05-23382426660.003
Innovative2022-05-23352330930.001
Mainstreet2022-05-2335.424.225.27.87.40.003
Mainstreet2022-05-223523.825.18.27.90.003
Abacus2022-05-21362428570.001
Mainstreet2022-05-2134.425.126.77.25.60.003
Mainstreet2022-05-2035.526.125.76.56.20.002
Ipsos2022-05-19382328650.002
Innovative2022-05-19362628820.001
Mainstreet2022-05-1936.924.726.25.17.10.002
Counsel2022-05-1836.924.327.56.15.20.002
Mainstreet2022-05-1837.223.424.86.77.90.002

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name:IncumbentPCNDPLib.GreenOtherProjected
winner
AjaxPC40123774LEANS PC
Algoma—ManitoulinNDP214910613NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillPC5782834PC
Barrie—InnisfilPC53122474PC
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedontePC4863772PC
Bay of QuintePC46271468PC
Beaches—East YorkNDP30233783LIB
Brampton CentreNDP51182037PC
Brampton EastNDP39243124PC
Brampton NorthNDP42183244PC
Brampton SouthPC53152345PC
Brampton WestPC44183234PC
Brantford—BrantPC393410710LEANS PC
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundPC501912910PC
BurlingtonPC43123654PC
CambridgePC35282296PC
CarletonPC481818610PC
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonPC5030965PC
DavenportNDP6434272TOSS-UP
Don Valley EastLIB17166052LIB
Don Valley NorthPC42123852LEANS PC
Don Valley WestLIB26125472LIB
Dufferin—CaledonPC491612177PC
DurhamPC51142942PC
Eglinton—LawrencePC32105251LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—LondonPC5327866PC
EssexNDP4144762LEANS NDP
Etobicoke CentrePC43103862LEANS PC
Etobicoke NorthPC54102933PC
Etobicoke—LakeshorePC44143543PC
Flamborough—GlanbrookPC41281579PC
Glengarry—Prescott—RussellPC321835510LEANS LIB
GuelphGRN17159536GRN
Haldimand—NorfolkPC53229610PC
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockPC55211077PC
Hamilton CentreNDP125811910NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekNDP263220715LEANS NDP
Hamilton MountainNDP25481089NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasNDP28381978NDP
Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonPC48271277PC
Humber River—Black CreekNDP28254044LIB
Huron—BrucePC50241466PC
Kanata—CarletonPC422315813PC
Kenora—Rainy RiverPC46331262PC
KiiwetinoongNDP174820106NDP
Kingston and the IslandsNDP183431106LEANS NDP
King—VaughanPC5653333PC
Kitchener CentreNDP253819108NDP
Kitchener South—HespelerPC363114117LEANS PC
Kitchener—ConestogaPC373214108LEANS PC
Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexPC5228768PC
Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonPC49251178PC
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesPC59161375PC
London North CentreNDP28431576NDP
London WestNDP26491068NDP
London—FanshaweNDP2750977NDP
Markham—StouffvillePC4973643PC
Markham—ThornhillPC5183524PC
Markham—UnionvillePC6262823PC
MiltonPC4583853LEANS PC
Mississauga CentrePC43113637LEANS PC
Mississauga East—CooksvillePC4294135TOSS-UP
Mississauga—Erin MillsPC44113736PC
Mississauga—LakeshorePC43103673PC
Mississauga—MaltonPC421432210PC
Mississauga—StreetsvillePC42104135TOSS-UP
Mushkegowuk—James BayNDP22491747NDP
NepeanPC43241887PC
Newmarket—AuroraPC4993345PC
Niagara CentreNDP432812611PC
Niagara FallsNDP33461065NDP
Niagara WestPC50251186PC
Nickel BeltNDP19569510NDP
NipissingPC4631959PC
Northumberland—Peterborough SouthPC44202277PC
OakvillePC4454532TOSS-UP
Oakville North—BurlingtonPC49103543PC
OrléansLIB33183757LEANS LIB
OshawaNDP48232045PC
Ottawa CentreNDP14423067NDP
Ottawa SouthLIB27243865LIB
Ottawa West—NepeanPC31282767LEANS PC
Ottawa—VanierLIB19264079LIB
OxfordPC52257710PC
Parkdale—High ParkNDP8423992LEANS NDP
Parry Sound—MuskokaPC42130396LEANS PC
Perth—WellingtonPC47251198PC
Peterborough—KawarthaPC37213265LEANS PC
Pickering—UxbridgePC46143244PC
Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokePC66131056PC
Richmond HillPC5163832PC
Sarnia—LambtonPC5031668PC
Sault Ste. MariePC383310513LEANS PC
Scarborough CentrePC38223155LEANS PC
Scarborough NorthPC47163242PC
Scarborough SouthwestNDP25293862LIB
Scarborough—AgincourtPC44103943LEANS PC
Scarborough—GuildwoodLIB17175754LIB
Scarborough—Rouge ParkPC38243153PC
Simcoe NorthPC452317105PC
Simcoe—GreyPC541814105PC
Spadina—Fort YorkNDP10344772LIB
St. CatharinesNDP31401567NDP
Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryPC59181265PC
SudburyNDP20432179NDP
ThornhillPC6172525PC
Thunder Bay—AtikokanNDP27263458LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthLIB15333859LEANS LIB
Timiskaming—CochraneNDP185310515NDP
TimminsNDP2463049NDP
Toronto CentreNDP4365063LIB
Toronto—DanforthNDP6473692NDP
Toronto—St. Paul'sNDP13235662LIB
University—RosedaleNDP103444103LIB
Vaughan—WoodbridgePC5054122PC
WaterlooNDP2953586NDP
Wellington—Halton HillsPC5792382PC
WhitbyPC51222044PC
WillowdalePC41163652LEANS PC
Windsor WestNDP26471566NDP
Windsor—TecumsehNDP2452978NDP
York CentrePC43153454PC
York South—WestonNDP501325111PC
York—SimcoePC46152892PC

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