last updated: Wednesday, June 1, 2022 at 23:40 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
PC Party  | 35.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 38.8% Most likely vote total: 38.8% Change since last election: ▼1.7% 42.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
New Democrat  | 21.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 23.4% Most likely vote total: 23.4% Change since last election: ▼10.2% 25.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Liberal  | 23.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 25.4% Most likely vote total: 25.4% Change since last election: ▲5.8% 27.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 6.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.9% Most likely vote total: 6.9% Change since last election: ▲2.3% 7.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5.5%  Most likely vote total: 5.5% Change since last election: ▲3.8% 6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| PC Party | 62 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 79 Most likely seat total: 79 Change since last election: ▲3 82 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| New Democrat | 19 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 26 Most likely seat total: 26 Change since last election: ▼14 35 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Liberal | 14 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 18 Most likely seat total: 18 Change since last election: ▲11 33 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Polling Firm: | Date: | PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forum | 2022-06-01 | 40.3 | 23.2 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 0.105 |  |
| Mainstreet | 2022-06-01 | 38.9 | 22.8 | 24.2 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 0.113 | |
| Research Co. | 2022-06-01 | 39 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0.113 | |
| Ekos | 2022-06-01 | 37 | 23.5 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 0.113 | |
| Abacus | 2022-06-01 | 40 | 22 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 0.08 | |
| Ipsos | 2022-05-31 | 41 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 0.096 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-31 | 35.4 | 23.9 | 26.2 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 0.028 | |
| Leger | 2022-05-30 | 40 | 24 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 0.094 | |
| Innovative | 2022-05-30 | 34 | 24 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 0.047 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-30 | 39.3 | 22.5 | 26.8 | 6.4 | 5 | 0.018 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-29 | 36.6 | 23.5 | 27.2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 0.012 | |
| Counsel | 2022-05-28 | 39.6 | 22.5 | 25.1 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 0.075 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-28 | 37.3 | 23.2 | 26.3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 0.008 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-27 | 39.1 | 20.8 | 26.5 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 0.005 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-26 | 38.3 | 21.6 | 26.9 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 0.005 | |
| Angus Reid | 2022-05-25 | 38 | 24 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 0.055 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-25 | 36 | 23.5 | 26.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 0.004 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-24 | 35.3 | 23.1 | 27.2 | 8 | 6.4 | 0.003 | |
| Leger | 2022-05-23 | 38 | 24 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0.003 | |
| Innovative | 2022-05-23 | 35 | 23 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 0.001 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-23 | 35.4 | 24.2 | 25.2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 0.003 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-22 | 35 | 23.8 | 25.1 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 0.003 | |
| Abacus | 2022-05-21 | 36 | 24 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 0.001 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-21 | 34.4 | 25.1 | 26.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 0.003 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-20 | 35.5 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 0.002 | |
| Ipsos | 2022-05-19 | 38 | 23 | 28 | 6 | 5 | 0.002 | |
| Innovative | 2022-05-19 | 36 | 26 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0.001 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-19 | 36.9 | 24.7 | 26.2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 0.002 | |
| Counsel | 2022-05-18 | 36.9 | 24.3 | 27.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 0.002 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-05-18 | 37.2 | 23.4 | 24.8 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 0.002 | |
| Riding name: | Incumbent | PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Projectedwinner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | PC | 40 | 12 | 37 | 7 | 4 | LEANS PC |
| Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP | 21 | 49 | 10 | 6 | 13 | NDP |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | PC | 57 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 4 | PC |
| Barrie—Innisfil | PC | 53 | 12 | 24 | 7 | 4 | PC |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | PC | 48 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2 | PC |
| Bay of Quinte | PC | 46 | 27 | 14 | 6 | 8 | PC |
| Beaches—East York | NDP | 30 | 23 | 37 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Brampton Centre | NDP | 51 | 18 | 20 | 3 | 7 | PC |
| Brampton East | NDP | 39 | 24 | 31 | 2 | 4 | PC |
| Brampton North | NDP | 42 | 18 | 32 | 4 | 4 | PC |
| Brampton South | PC | 53 | 15 | 23 | 4 | 5 | PC |
| Brampton West | PC | 44 | 18 | 32 | 3 | 4 | PC |
| Brantford—Brant | PC | 39 | 34 | 10 | 7 | 10 | LEANS PC |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PC | 50 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 10 | PC |
| Burlington | PC | 43 | 12 | 36 | 5 | 4 | PC |
| Cambridge | PC | 35 | 28 | 22 | 9 | 6 | PC |
| Carleton | PC | 48 | 18 | 18 | 6 | 10 | PC |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | PC | 50 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 5 | PC |
| Davenport | NDP | 6 | 43 | 42 | 7 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Don Valley East | LIB | 17 | 16 | 60 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Don Valley North | PC | 42 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 2 | LEANS PC |
| Don Valley West | LIB | 26 | 12 | 54 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Dufferin—Caledon | PC | 49 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 7 | PC |
| Durham | PC | 51 | 14 | 29 | 4 | 2 | PC |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | PC | 32 | 10 | 52 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | PC | 53 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 6 | PC |
| Essex | NDP | 41 | 44 | 7 | 6 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
| Etobicoke Centre | PC | 43 | 10 | 38 | 6 | 2 | LEANS PC |
| Etobicoke North | PC | 54 | 10 | 29 | 3 | 3 | PC |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PC | 44 | 14 | 35 | 4 | 3 | PC |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | PC | 41 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 9 | PC |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | PC | 32 | 18 | 35 | 5 | 10 | LEANS LIB |
| Guelph | GRN | 17 | 15 | 9 | 53 | 6 | GRN |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | PC | 53 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 10 | PC |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PC | 55 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 7 | PC |
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | 12 | 58 | 11 | 9 | 10 | NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP | 26 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 15 | LEANS NDP |
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | 25 | 48 | 10 | 8 | 9 | NDP |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | NDP | 28 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 8 | NDP |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | PC | 48 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 7 | PC |
| Humber River—Black Creek | NDP | 28 | 25 | 40 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Huron—Bruce | PC | 50 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 6 | PC |
| Kanata—Carleton | PC | 42 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 13 | PC |
| Kenora—Rainy River | PC | 46 | 33 | 12 | 6 | 2 | PC |
| Kiiwetinoong | NDP | 17 | 48 | 20 | 10 | 6 | NDP |
| Kingston and the Islands | NDP | 18 | 34 | 31 | 10 | 6 | LEANS NDP |
| King—Vaughan | PC | 56 | 5 | 33 | 3 | 3 | PC |
| Kitchener Centre | NDP | 25 | 38 | 19 | 10 | 8 | NDP |
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | PC | 36 | 31 | 14 | 11 | 7 | LEANS PC |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | 37 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | LEANS PC |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PC | 52 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 8 | PC |
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | PC | 49 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 8 | PC |
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | PC | 59 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 5 | PC |
| London North Centre | NDP | 28 | 43 | 15 | 7 | 6 | NDP |
| London West | NDP | 26 | 49 | 10 | 6 | 8 | NDP |
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | 27 | 50 | 9 | 7 | 7 | NDP |
| Markham—Stouffville | PC | 49 | 7 | 36 | 4 | 3 | PC |
| Markham—Thornhill | PC | 51 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 4 | PC |
| Markham—Unionville | PC | 62 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 3 | PC |
| Milton | PC | 45 | 8 | 38 | 5 | 3 | LEANS PC |
| Mississauga Centre | PC | 43 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 7 | LEANS PC |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | PC | 42 | 9 | 41 | 3 | 5 | TOSS-UP |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | PC | 44 | 11 | 37 | 3 | 6 | PC |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | PC | 43 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 3 | PC |
| Mississauga—Malton | PC | 42 | 14 | 32 | 2 | 10 | PC |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | PC | 42 | 10 | 41 | 3 | 5 | TOSS-UP |
| Mushkegowuk—James Bay | NDP | 22 | 49 | 17 | 4 | 7 | NDP |
| Nepean | PC | 43 | 24 | 18 | 8 | 7 | PC |
| Newmarket—Aurora | PC | 49 | 9 | 33 | 4 | 5 | PC |
| Niagara Centre | NDP | 43 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 11 | PC |
| Niagara Falls | NDP | 33 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 5 | NDP |
| Niagara West | PC | 50 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | PC |
| Nickel Belt | NDP | 19 | 56 | 9 | 5 | 10 | NDP |
| Nipissing | PC | 46 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 9 | PC |
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | PC | 44 | 20 | 22 | 7 | 7 | PC |
| Oakville | PC | 44 | 5 | 45 | 3 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Oakville North—Burlington | PC | 49 | 10 | 35 | 4 | 3 | PC |
| Orléans | LIB | 33 | 18 | 37 | 5 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| Oshawa | NDP | 48 | 23 | 20 | 4 | 5 | PC |
| Ottawa Centre | NDP | 14 | 42 | 30 | 6 | 7 | NDP |
| Ottawa South | LIB | 27 | 24 | 38 | 6 | 5 | LIB |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | PC | 31 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 7 | LEANS PC |
| Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 19 | 26 | 40 | 7 | 9 | LIB |
| Oxford | PC | 52 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 10 | PC |
| Parkdale—High Park | NDP | 8 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | PC | 42 | 13 | 0 | 39 | 6 | LEANS PC |
| Perth—Wellington | PC | 47 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 8 | PC |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | PC | 37 | 21 | 32 | 6 | 5 | LEANS PC |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | PC | 46 | 14 | 32 | 4 | 4 | PC |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PC | 66 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 6 | PC |
| Richmond Hill | PC | 51 | 6 | 38 | 3 | 2 | PC |
| Sarnia—Lambton | PC | 50 | 31 | 6 | 6 | 8 | PC |
| Sault Ste. Marie | PC | 38 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 13 | LEANS PC |
| Scarborough Centre | PC | 38 | 22 | 31 | 5 | 5 | LEANS PC |
| Scarborough North | PC | 47 | 16 | 32 | 4 | 2 | PC |
| Scarborough Southwest | NDP | 25 | 29 | 38 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | PC | 44 | 10 | 39 | 4 | 3 | LEANS PC |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | LIB | 17 | 17 | 57 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | PC | 38 | 24 | 31 | 5 | 3 | PC |
| Simcoe North | PC | 45 | 23 | 17 | 10 | 5 | PC |
| Simcoe—Grey | PC | 54 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 5 | PC |
| Spadina—Fort York | NDP | 10 | 34 | 47 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| St. Catharines | NDP | 31 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 7 | NDP |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PC | 59 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 5 | PC |
| Sudbury | NDP | 20 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 9 | NDP |
| Thornhill | PC | 61 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 5 | PC |
| Thunder Bay—Atikokan | NDP | 27 | 26 | 34 | 5 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 15 | 33 | 38 | 5 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP | 18 | 53 | 10 | 5 | 15 | NDP |
| Timmins | NDP | 24 | 63 | 0 | 4 | 9 | NDP |
| Toronto Centre | NDP | 4 | 36 | 50 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Toronto—Danforth | NDP | 6 | 47 | 36 | 9 | 2 | NDP |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | NDP | 13 | 23 | 56 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| University—Rosedale | NDP | 10 | 34 | 44 | 10 | 3 | LIB |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | PC | 50 | 5 | 41 | 2 | 2 | PC |
| Waterloo | NDP | 29 | 53 | 5 | 8 | 6 | NDP |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | PC | 57 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 2 | PC |
| Whitby | PC | 51 | 22 | 20 | 4 | 4 | PC |
| Willowdale | PC | 41 | 16 | 36 | 5 | 2 | LEANS PC |
| Windsor West | NDP | 26 | 47 | 15 | 6 | 6 | NDP |
| Windsor—Tecumseh | NDP | 24 | 52 | 9 | 7 | 8 | NDP |
| York Centre | PC | 43 | 15 | 34 | 5 | 4 | PC |
| York South—Weston | NDP | 50 | 13 | 25 | 11 | 1 | PC |
| York—Simcoe | PC | 46 | 15 | 28 | 9 | 2 | PC |
