

last updated: Wednesday, June 1, 2022 at 23:40 (Eastern Daylight Time)
PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
---|---|
PC Party ![]() | 35.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 38.8% ![]() Most likely vote total: 38.8% Change since last election: ▼1.7% 42.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
New Democrat ![]() | 21.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 23.4% ![]() Most likely vote total: 23.4% Change since last election: ▼10.2% 25.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Liberal ![]() | 23.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 25.4% ![]() Most likely vote total: 25.4% Change since last election: ▲5.8% 27.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green ![]() | 6.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.9% ![]() Most likely vote total: 6.9% Change since last election: ▲2.3% 7.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other ![]() | 5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5.5% ![]() Most likely vote total: 5.5% Change since last election: ▲3.8% 6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
---|---|
PC Party ![]() | 62 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 79 ![]() Most likely seat total: 79 Change since last election: ▲3 82 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
New Democrat ![]() | 19 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 26 ![]() Most likely seat total: 26 Change since last election: ▼14 35 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Liberal ![]() | 14 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 18 ![]() Most likely seat total: 18 Change since last election: ▲11 33 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green ![]() | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 ![]() Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other ![]() | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 ![]() Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Polling Firm: | Date: | PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forum | 2022-06-01 | 40.3 | 23.2 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 0.105 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-06-01 | 38.9 | 22.8 | 24.2 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 0.113 | ![]() |
Research Co. | 2022-06-01 | 39 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0.113 | ![]() |
Ekos | 2022-06-01 | 37 | 23.5 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 0.113 | ![]() |
Abacus | 2022-06-01 | 40 | 22 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 0.08 | ![]() |
Ipsos | 2022-05-31 | 41 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 0.096 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-31 | 35.4 | 23.9 | 26.2 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 0.028 | ![]() |
Leger | 2022-05-30 | 40 | 24 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 0.094 | ![]() |
Innovative | 2022-05-30 | 34 | 24 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 0.047 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-30 | 39.3 | 22.5 | 26.8 | 6.4 | 5 | 0.018 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-29 | 36.6 | 23.5 | 27.2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 0.012 | ![]() |
Counsel | 2022-05-28 | 39.6 | 22.5 | 25.1 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 0.075 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-28 | 37.3 | 23.2 | 26.3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 0.008 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-27 | 39.1 | 20.8 | 26.5 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 0.005 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-26 | 38.3 | 21.6 | 26.9 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 0.005 | ![]() |
Angus Reid | 2022-05-25 | 38 | 24 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 0.055 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-25 | 36 | 23.5 | 26.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 0.004 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-24 | 35.3 | 23.1 | 27.2 | 8 | 6.4 | 0.003 | ![]() |
Leger | 2022-05-23 | 38 | 24 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0.003 | ![]() |
Innovative | 2022-05-23 | 35 | 23 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 0.001 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-23 | 35.4 | 24.2 | 25.2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 0.003 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-22 | 35 | 23.8 | 25.1 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 0.003 | ![]() |
Abacus | 2022-05-21 | 36 | 24 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 0.001 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-21 | 34.4 | 25.1 | 26.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 0.003 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-20 | 35.5 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 0.002 | ![]() |
Ipsos | 2022-05-19 | 38 | 23 | 28 | 6 | 5 | 0.002 | ![]() |
Innovative | 2022-05-19 | 36 | 26 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0.001 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-19 | 36.9 | 24.7 | 26.2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 0.002 | ![]() |
Counsel | 2022-05-18 | 36.9 | 24.3 | 27.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 0.002 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2022-05-18 | 37.2 | 23.4 | 24.8 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 0.002 | ![]() |
Riding name: | Incumbent | PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Projectedwinner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ajax | PC | 40 | 12 | 37 | 7 | 4 | LEANS PC |
Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP | 21 | 49 | 10 | 6 | 13 | NDP |
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | PC | 57 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 4 | PC |
Barrie—Innisfil | PC | 53 | 12 | 24 | 7 | 4 | PC |
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | PC | 48 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2 | PC |
Bay of Quinte | PC | 46 | 27 | 14 | 6 | 8 | PC |
Beaches—East York | NDP | 30 | 23 | 37 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
Brampton Centre | NDP | 51 | 18 | 20 | 3 | 7 | PC |
Brampton East | NDP | 39 | 24 | 31 | 2 | 4 | PC |
Brampton North | NDP | 42 | 18 | 32 | 4 | 4 | PC |
Brampton South | PC | 53 | 15 | 23 | 4 | 5 | PC |
Brampton West | PC | 44 | 18 | 32 | 3 | 4 | PC |
Brantford—Brant | PC | 39 | 34 | 10 | 7 | 10 | LEANS PC |
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PC | 50 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 10 | PC |
Burlington | PC | 43 | 12 | 36 | 5 | 4 | PC |
Cambridge | PC | 35 | 28 | 22 | 9 | 6 | PC |
Carleton | PC | 48 | 18 | 18 | 6 | 10 | PC |
Chatham-Kent—Leamington | PC | 50 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 5 | PC |
Davenport | NDP | 6 | 43 | 42 | 7 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
Don Valley East | LIB | 17 | 16 | 60 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
Don Valley North | PC | 42 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 2 | LEANS PC |
Don Valley West | LIB | 26 | 12 | 54 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
Dufferin—Caledon | PC | 49 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 7 | PC |
Durham | PC | 51 | 14 | 29 | 4 | 2 | PC |
Eglinton—Lawrence | PC | 32 | 10 | 52 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
Elgin—Middlesex—London | PC | 53 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 6 | PC |
Essex | NDP | 41 | 44 | 7 | 6 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
Etobicoke Centre | PC | 43 | 10 | 38 | 6 | 2 | LEANS PC |
Etobicoke North | PC | 54 | 10 | 29 | 3 | 3 | PC |
Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PC | 44 | 14 | 35 | 4 | 3 | PC |
Flamborough—Glanbrook | PC | 41 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 9 | PC |
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | PC | 32 | 18 | 35 | 5 | 10 | LEANS LIB |
Guelph | GRN | 17 | 15 | 9 | 53 | 6 | GRN |
Haldimand—Norfolk | PC | 53 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 10 | PC |
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PC | 55 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 7 | PC |
Hamilton Centre | NDP | 12 | 58 | 11 | 9 | 10 | NDP |
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP | 26 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 15 | LEANS NDP |
Hamilton Mountain | NDP | 25 | 48 | 10 | 8 | 9 | NDP |
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | NDP | 28 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 8 | NDP |
Hastings—Lennox and Addington | PC | 48 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 7 | PC |
Humber River—Black Creek | NDP | 28 | 25 | 40 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
Huron—Bruce | PC | 50 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 6 | PC |
Kanata—Carleton | PC | 42 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 13 | PC |
Kenora—Rainy River | PC | 46 | 33 | 12 | 6 | 2 | PC |
Kiiwetinoong | NDP | 17 | 48 | 20 | 10 | 6 | NDP |
Kingston and the Islands | NDP | 18 | 34 | 31 | 10 | 6 | LEANS NDP |
King—Vaughan | PC | 56 | 5 | 33 | 3 | 3 | PC |
Kitchener Centre | NDP | 25 | 38 | 19 | 10 | 8 | NDP |
Kitchener South—Hespeler | PC | 36 | 31 | 14 | 11 | 7 | LEANS PC |
Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | 37 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | LEANS PC |
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PC | 52 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 8 | PC |
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | PC | 49 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 8 | PC |
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | PC | 59 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 5 | PC |
London North Centre | NDP | 28 | 43 | 15 | 7 | 6 | NDP |
London West | NDP | 26 | 49 | 10 | 6 | 8 | NDP |
London—Fanshawe | NDP | 27 | 50 | 9 | 7 | 7 | NDP |
Markham—Stouffville | PC | 49 | 7 | 36 | 4 | 3 | PC |
Markham—Thornhill | PC | 51 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 4 | PC |
Markham—Unionville | PC | 62 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 3 | PC |
Milton | PC | 45 | 8 | 38 | 5 | 3 | LEANS PC |
Mississauga Centre | PC | 43 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 7 | LEANS PC |
Mississauga East—Cooksville | PC | 42 | 9 | 41 | 3 | 5 | TOSS-UP |
Mississauga—Erin Mills | PC | 44 | 11 | 37 | 3 | 6 | PC |
Mississauga—Lakeshore | PC | 43 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 3 | PC |
Mississauga—Malton | PC | 42 | 14 | 32 | 2 | 10 | PC |
Mississauga—Streetsville | PC | 42 | 10 | 41 | 3 | 5 | TOSS-UP |
Mushkegowuk—James Bay | NDP | 22 | 49 | 17 | 4 | 7 | NDP |
Nepean | PC | 43 | 24 | 18 | 8 | 7 | PC |
Newmarket—Aurora | PC | 49 | 9 | 33 | 4 | 5 | PC |
Niagara Centre | NDP | 43 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 11 | PC |
Niagara Falls | NDP | 33 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 5 | NDP |
Niagara West | PC | 50 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | PC |
Nickel Belt | NDP | 19 | 56 | 9 | 5 | 10 | NDP |
Nipissing | PC | 46 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 9 | PC |
Northumberland—Peterborough South | PC | 44 | 20 | 22 | 7 | 7 | PC |
Oakville | PC | 44 | 5 | 45 | 3 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
Oakville North—Burlington | PC | 49 | 10 | 35 | 4 | 3 | PC |
Orléans | LIB | 33 | 18 | 37 | 5 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
Oshawa | NDP | 48 | 23 | 20 | 4 | 5 | PC |
Ottawa Centre | NDP | 14 | 42 | 30 | 6 | 7 | NDP |
Ottawa South | LIB | 27 | 24 | 38 | 6 | 5 | LIB |
Ottawa West—Nepean | PC | 31 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 7 | LEANS PC |
Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 19 | 26 | 40 | 7 | 9 | LIB |
Oxford | PC | 52 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 10 | PC |
Parkdale—High Park | NDP | 8 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
Parry Sound—Muskoka | PC | 42 | 13 | 0 | 39 | 6 | LEANS PC |
Perth—Wellington | PC | 47 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 8 | PC |
Peterborough—Kawartha | PC | 37 | 21 | 32 | 6 | 5 | LEANS PC |
Pickering—Uxbridge | PC | 46 | 14 | 32 | 4 | 4 | PC |
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PC | 66 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 6 | PC |
Richmond Hill | PC | 51 | 6 | 38 | 3 | 2 | PC |
Sarnia—Lambton | PC | 50 | 31 | 6 | 6 | 8 | PC |
Sault Ste. Marie | PC | 38 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 13 | LEANS PC |
Scarborough Centre | PC | 38 | 22 | 31 | 5 | 5 | LEANS PC |
Scarborough North | PC | 47 | 16 | 32 | 4 | 2 | PC |
Scarborough Southwest | NDP | 25 | 29 | 38 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
Scarborough—Agincourt | PC | 44 | 10 | 39 | 4 | 3 | LEANS PC |
Scarborough—Guildwood | LIB | 17 | 17 | 57 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
Scarborough—Rouge Park | PC | 38 | 24 | 31 | 5 | 3 | PC |
Simcoe North | PC | 45 | 23 | 17 | 10 | 5 | PC |
Simcoe—Grey | PC | 54 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 5 | PC |
Spadina—Fort York | NDP | 10 | 34 | 47 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
St. Catharines | NDP | 31 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 7 | NDP |
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PC | 59 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 5 | PC |
Sudbury | NDP | 20 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 9 | NDP |
Thornhill | PC | 61 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 5 | PC |
Thunder Bay—Atikokan | NDP | 27 | 26 | 34 | 5 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 15 | 33 | 38 | 5 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP | 18 | 53 | 10 | 5 | 15 | NDP |
Timmins | NDP | 24 | 63 | 0 | 4 | 9 | NDP |
Toronto Centre | NDP | 4 | 36 | 50 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
Toronto—Danforth | NDP | 6 | 47 | 36 | 9 | 2 | NDP |
Toronto—St. Paul's | NDP | 13 | 23 | 56 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
University—Rosedale | NDP | 10 | 34 | 44 | 10 | 3 | LIB |
Vaughan—Woodbridge | PC | 50 | 5 | 41 | 2 | 2 | PC |
Waterloo | NDP | 29 | 53 | 5 | 8 | 6 | NDP |
Wellington—Halton Hills | PC | 57 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 2 | PC |
Whitby | PC | 51 | 22 | 20 | 4 | 4 | PC |
Willowdale | PC | 41 | 16 | 36 | 5 | 2 | LEANS PC |
Windsor West | NDP | 26 | 47 | 15 | 6 | 6 | NDP |
Windsor—Tecumseh | NDP | 24 | 52 | 9 | 7 | 8 | NDP |
York Centre | PC | 43 | 15 | 34 | 5 | 4 | PC |
York South—Weston | NDP | 50 | 13 | 25 | 11 | 1 | PC |
York—Simcoe | PC | 46 | 15 | 28 | 9 | 2 | PC |
