Next Canadian federal election projection
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last updated: Monday, September 20, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 28.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 31.5%  Most likely vote total: 31.5% Change since last election: ▼1.1% 34.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 28% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 31.1%  Most likely vote total: 31.1% Change since last election: ▼3.3% 34.2% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 17.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 19%  Most likely vote total: 19% Change since last election: ▲2.7% 20.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  | 6.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.9%  Most likely vote total: 6.9% Change since last election: ▼0.4% 7.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 2.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.3%  Most likely vote total: 3.3% Change since last election: ▼3.1% 3.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 7.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 8.2%  Most likely vote total: 8.2% Change since last election: ▲5.1% 9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 125 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 156 Most likely seat total: 156 Change since last election: ▼1 163 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 102 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 116 Most likely seat total: 116 Change since last election: ▼5 143 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 23 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 33 Most likely seat total: 33 Change since last election: ▲9 54 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc | 20 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 31 Most likely seat total: 31 Change since last election: ▼1 41 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2 Most likely seat total: 2 Change since last election: ▼1 7 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▼1 7 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Polling Firm: | Date: | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-19 | 33.4 | 30.4 | 18.1 | 6 | 2.1 | 10 | 0.116 |  |
| Ekos | 2021-09-19 | 32.6 | 27.3 | 18 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 0.106 | |
| Forum | 2021-09-19 | 29.4 | 33 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 11.6 | 0.095 | |
| Research Co. | 2021-09-19 | 32 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 0.116 | |
| Abacus | 2021-09-19 | 31 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0.089 | |
| Counsel | 2021-09-18 | 31 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 0.102 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-09-18 | 31 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0.102 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-18 | 32.1 | 26.9 | 18.5 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 10.9 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-18 | 31.9 | 30.5 | 19 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 9.7 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-09-18 | 32 | 31 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-09-18 | 30 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0.084 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-17 | 30.6 | 27.7 | 20 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 9.9 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-17 | 31 | 30.8 | 19.9 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 9.2 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-09-17 | 33 | 32 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-09-17 | 32 | 33 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0.102 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-16 | 30.4 | 30.6 | 18.5 | 7 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-16 | 29.5 | 31.9 | 19.5 | 6.4 | 3 | 9.7 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-09-16 | 34 | 30 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Campaign | 2021-09-16 | 31 | 31 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 0.052 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-15 | 32.1 | 30.4 | 18.4 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 9 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-15 | 30.2 | 32 | 18.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 9.6 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-09-15 | 33 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-14 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 19.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-14 | 31.4 | 31.4 | 17.5 | 7 | 3.3 | 9.4 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-13 | 31.2 | 32.2 | 19.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 0 | |
| Research Co. | 2021-09-13 | 34 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-13 | 33.5 | 29.5 | 16.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 9.8 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-09-13 | 32 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-09-13 | 32 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Innovative | 2021-09-12 | 33 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 0.036 | |
Trend lines of all national polls published
