Next Canadian federal election projection


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last updated: Monday, September 20, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
28.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 31.5%
Change since last election: ▼1.1%
34.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.1%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.1%
Change since last election: ▼3.3%
34.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
17.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
19%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 19%
Change since last election: ▲2.7%
20.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.9%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 6.9%
Change since last election: ▼0.4%
7.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
2.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.3%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 3.3%
Change since last election: ▼3.1%
3.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
7.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
8.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 8.2%
Change since last election: ▲5.1%
9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
125 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
156
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 156
Change since last election: ▼1
163 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
102 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
116
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 116
Change since last election: ▼5
143 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
23 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
33
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 33
Change since last election: ▲9
54 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
20 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
31
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 31
Change since last election: ▼1
41 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▼1
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm:Date:Lib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherPoll weight:
Mainstreet2021-09-1933.430.418.162.1100.116
Ekos2021-09-1932.627.3187.33.910.90.106
Forum2021-09-1929.43316.26.92.911.60.095
Research Co.2021-09-193232197460.116
Abacus2021-09-193132197470.089
Counsel2021-09-183130197490.102
Ipsos2021-09-183132217360.102
Ekos2021-09-1832.126.918.57.24.410.90
Mainstreet2021-09-1831.930.5196.42.59.70
Abacus2021-09-183231216370
Angus Reid2021-09-183032207380.084
Ekos2021-09-1730.627.7207.34.59.90
Mainstreet2021-09-173130.819.96.62.59.20
Abacus2021-09-173332216260
Leger2021-09-173233197270.102
Ekos2021-09-1630.430.618.574.19.40
Mainstreet2021-09-1629.531.919.56.439.70
Abacus2021-09-163430216360
Campaign2021-09-163131217460.052
Ekos2021-09-1532.130.418.46.33.890
Mainstreet2021-09-1530.23218.96.42.99.60
Abacus2021-09-153331225360
Ekos2021-09-1431.831.819.16.43.37.60
Mainstreet2021-09-1431.431.417.573.39.40
Ekos2021-09-1331.232.219.46.23.17.90
Research Co.2021-09-133430207360
Mainstreet2021-09-1333.529.516.47.53.39.80
Ipsos2021-09-133232217440
Leger2021-09-133232207360
Innovative2021-09-123328227460.036

Trend lines of all national polls published

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