Next Canadian federal election projection
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last updated: Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 13:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 28.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 31.6%  Most likely vote total: 31.6% Change since last election: ▼0.8% 34.8% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 28.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 31.4%  Most likely vote total: 31.4% Change since last election: ▼1.7% 34.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 18.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 20.5%  Most likely vote total: 20.5% Change since last election: ▲1.7% 22.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  | 6.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.9%  Most likely vote total: 6.9% Change since last election: ▲0.1% 7.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 2.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.2%  Most likely vote total: 3.2% Change since last election: ▲0.3% 3.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 5.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.4%  Most likely vote total: 6.4% Change since last election: ▲0.6% 7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 126 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 156 Most likely seat total: 156 Change since last election: ▼4 162 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 107 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 115 Most likely seat total: 115 Change since last election: ▼4 140 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 25 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 33 Most likely seat total: 33 Change since last election: ▲8 49 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc | 26 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 31 Most likely seat total: 31 Change since last election: ▼1 39 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3 Most likely seat total: 3 Change since last election: ▲1 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Polling Firm: | Date: | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus | 2022-02-22 | 31 | 31 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0.368 |  |
| Ipsos | 2022-02-21 | 32 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0.287 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-02-17 | 30.6 | 38.7 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 7.9 | 0.079 | |
| Abacus | 2022-02-08 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2022-02-06 | 33 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 0.112 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-01-23 | 29.4 | 29.3 | 16.7 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 15.6 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2022-01-23 | 34 | 31 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2022-01-17 | 30.3 | 29.7 | 19.5 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 10.1 | 0.089 | |
| Angus Reid | 2022-01-12 | 34 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.067 | |
| Abacus | 2022-01-12 | 32 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-12-21 | 32 | 25 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-12-05 | 36 | 29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-11-30 | 33.5 | 30.3 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 11.8 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-11-30 | 32 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-11-29 | 35 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-11-21 | 30.4 | 26.6 | 19.1 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-11-07 | 35 | 26 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-10-24 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 3 | 9 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-10-20 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-19 | 33.4 | 30.4 | 18.1 | 6 | 2.1 | 10 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-19 | 32.6 | 27.3 | 18 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 0 | |
| Forum | 2021-09-19 | 29.4 | 33 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 11.6 | 0 | |
| Research Co. | 2021-09-19 | 32 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-09-19 | 31 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
| Counsel | 2021-09-18 | 31 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-09-18 | 31 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-18 | 32.1 | 26.9 | 18.5 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 10.9 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-18 | 31.9 | 30.5 | 19 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 9.7 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-09-18 | 32 | 31 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-09-18 | 30 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
Trend lines of all national polls published
