Next Canadian federal election projection
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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 27.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 30.9%  Most likely vote total: 30.9% Change since last election: ▼1.3% 33.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 29% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 32.3%  Most likely vote total: 32.3% Change since last election: ▼0.9% 35.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 17.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 19.3%  Most likely vote total: 19.3% Change since last election: ▲0.8% 21.2% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  | 6.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 7.1%  Most likely vote total: 7.1% Change since last election: ▼0.5% 7.8% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 4.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.5%  Most likely vote total: 4.5% Change since last election: ▲1.9% 5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 5.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6%  Most likely vote total: 6% Change since last election: ▲0.1% 6.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 124 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 152 Most likely seat total: 152 Change since last election: ▼8 160 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 114 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 125 Most likely seat total: 125 Change since last election: ▲6 145 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 22 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 28 Most likely seat total: 28 Change since last election: ▲3 45 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc | 22 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 30 Most likely seat total: 30 Change since last election: ▼2 38 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 1 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3 Most likely seat total: 3 Change since last election: ▲1 5 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Polling Firm: | Date: | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus | 2022-05-24 | 31 | 31 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 0.578 |  |
| Ekos | 2022-05-17 | 29.2 | 35.4 | 19.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 0.164 | |
| Ekos | 2022-05-09 | 31.8 | 31.4 | 20.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2022-05-06 | 31 | 33 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-04-29 | 32.2 | 38.4 | 16.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 3 | 0.106 | |
| Leger | 2022-04-10 | 31 | 29 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 0.134 | |
| Abacus | 2022-04-09 | 33 | 31 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2022-03-25 | 31 | 33 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2022-03-06 | 33 | 28 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2022-02-22 | 31 | 31 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2022-02-21 | 32 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0.018 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-02-17 | 30.6 | 38.7 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 7.9 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2022-02-08 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2022-02-06 | 33 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2022-01-23 | 29.4 | 29.3 | 16.7 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 15.6 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2022-01-23 | 34 | 31 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2022-01-17 | 30.3 | 29.7 | 19.5 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 10.1 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2022-01-12 | 34 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2022-01-12 | 32 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-12-21 | 32 | 25 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-12-05 | 36 | 29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-11-30 | 33.5 | 30.3 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 11.8 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-11-30 | 32 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-11-29 | 35 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-11-21 | 30.4 | 26.6 | 19.1 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-11-07 | 35 | 26 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-10-24 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 3 | 9 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-10-20 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-09-19 | 33.4 | 30.4 | 18.1 | 6 | 2.1 | 10 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2021-09-19 | 32.6 | 27.3 | 18 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 0 | |
