Next Canadian federal election projection


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last updated: Friday, May 28, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
35.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 35.6%
Change since last election: ▲3.2%
39.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.2%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.2%
Change since last election: ▼4.3%
33.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
15.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
17.3%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 17.3%
Change since last election: ▲0.6%
19% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
5.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.1%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 6.1%
Change since last election: ▼1.5%
6.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.6%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
7.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.2%
Change since last election: ▲2%
4.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
150 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
181
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 181
Change since last election: ▲24
190 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
94 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
108
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 108
Change since last election: ▼13
132 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
24
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 24
Change since last election: ▲0
43 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
12 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
20
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 20
Change since last election: ▼12
34 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Leger 2021-05-23 34 30 19 7 7 3 0.272
Mainstreet 2021-05-23 37.2 31.4 13.3 5.2 6.9 6 0.263
Angus Reid 2021-05-17 34 32 18 7 5 4 0.087
Leger 2021-05-16 32 31 19 7 8 3 0
Ipsos 2021-05-14 38 29 21 6 5 1 0.079
Abacus 2021-05-12 34 32 17 6 7 4 0.052
Leger 2021-05-09 33 30 19 7 7 4 0
EKOS 2021-05-06 36 26.1 19.7 4 7.1 7.1 0.067
Innovative 2021-05-05 40 27 18 4 7 4 0.029
Leger 2021-04-25 34 28 20 7 7 4 0
Angus Reid 2021-04-25 34 32 20 7 5 2 0
Abacus 2021-04-25 36 29 17 7 7 4 0
Leger 2021-04-21 35 30 19 6 6 4 0
Ipsos 2021-04-21 38 27 19 7 7 2 0
Mainstreet 2021-04-18 36.8 29.6 14.9 5.8 6.6 6.3 0
Abacus 2021-04-14 37 29 19 6 6 3 0
Innovative 2021-04-13 39 27 17 4 8 5 0
Stratcom 2021-04-13 33.1 30.2 15.9 6.4 7.4 7 0.064
Leger 2021-04-11 35 30 18 7 7 3 0
Ipsos 2021-04-09 40 30 13 9 5 3 0
Campaign 2021-04-08 34 33 17 7 7 2 0.035
Abacus 2021-03-30 38 30 17 7 6 2 0
Leger 2021-03-28 35 28 22 7 6 2 0
Mainstreet 2021-03-22 37 34 10 8 6 5 0
Abacus 2021-03-17 33 29 19 7 8 4 0
Research Co. 2021-03-15 37 28 20 7 6 2 0.051
Leger 2021-03-14 36 31 19 6 5 3 0
Abacus 2021-03-05 34 30 18 8 7 3 0
Ipsos 2021-03-03 35 28 16 7 10 4 0
Angus Reid 2021-03-03 35 31 19 6 4 5 0

Trend lines of all national polls published

Calculated Politics