Next Canadian federal election projection


View regions in this projection all regions →
Return home page calculatedpolitics.ca →

last updated: Wednesday, January 12, 2022 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
29.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 33%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
36.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
27.1%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 27.1%
Change since last election: ▼6.8%
29.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
18.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
21%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 21%
Change since last election: ▲3%
23.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
4.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.3%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 5.3%
Change since last election: ▼1.8%
5.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
3.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 3.5%
Change since last election: ▲1%
3.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
9.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
10.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 10.2%
Change since last election: ▲4.6%
11.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
145 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
167
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 167
Change since last election: ▲7
178 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
87 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
106
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 106
Change since last election: ▼13
120 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
32 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
36
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 36
Change since last election: ▲11
57 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
15 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
26
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 26
Change since last election: ▼6
32 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲1
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
9 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm:Date:Lib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherPoll weight:
Ekos2021-12-2132252344120.546
Leger2021-12-053629197360.131
Mainstreet2021-11-3033.530.315.75.53.211.80.127
Abacus2021-11-303230208370.091
Angus Reid2021-11-293529207270.105
Ekos2021-11-2130.426.619.15.95.212.80
Leger2021-11-073526228360
Mainstreet2021-10-2433.833.315.45.5390
Abacus2021-10-203330197380
Mainstreet2021-09-1933.430.418.162.1100
Ekos2021-09-1932.627.3187.33.910.90
Forum2021-09-1929.43316.26.92.911.60
Research Co.2021-09-193232197460
Abacus2021-09-193132197470
Counsel2021-09-183130197490
Ipsos2021-09-183132217360
Ekos2021-09-1832.126.918.57.24.410.90
Mainstreet2021-09-1831.930.5196.42.59.70
Abacus2021-09-183231216370
Angus Reid2021-09-183032207380
Ekos2021-09-1730.627.7207.34.59.90
Mainstreet2021-09-173130.819.96.62.59.20
Abacus2021-09-173332216260
Leger2021-09-173233197270
Ekos2021-09-1630.430.618.574.19.40
Mainstreet2021-09-1629.531.919.56.439.70
Abacus2021-09-163430216360
Campaign2021-09-163131217460
Ekos2021-09-1532.130.418.46.33.890
Mainstreet2021-09-1530.23218.96.42.99.60

Trend lines of all national polls published

Do you like our work?

Calculated Politics