Next Canadian federal election projection


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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
27.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 30.9%
Change since last election: ▼1.3%
33.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.3%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 32.3%
Change since last election: ▼0.9%
35.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
17.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
19.3%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 19.3%
Change since last election: ▲0.8%
21.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.1%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 7.1%
Change since last election: ▼0.5%
7.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
4.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 4.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.9%
5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
5.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▲0.1%
6.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
124 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
152
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 152
Change since last election: ▼8
160 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
114 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
125
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 125
Change since last election: ▲6
145 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
22 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
28
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 28
Change since last election: ▲3
45 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
22 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
30
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 30
Change since last election: ▼2
38 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲1
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm:Date:Lib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherPoll weight:
Abacus2022-05-243131198560.578
Ekos2022-05-1729.235.419.94.34.56.70.164
Ekos2022-05-0931.831.420.34.85.26.50
Abacus2022-05-063133198360
Mainstreet2022-04-2932.238.416.96.72.830.106
Leger2022-04-103129217480.134
Abacus2022-04-093331188460
Abacus2022-03-253133177480
Leger2022-03-063328228360
Abacus2022-02-223131208370
Ipsos2022-02-213232236340.018
Mainstreet2022-02-1730.638.714.66.31.97.90
Abacus2022-02-083330198370
Leger2022-02-063329218450
Mainstreet2022-01-2329.429.316.75.83.215.60
Leger2022-01-233431187370
Ekos2022-01-1730.329.719.55.94.510.10
Angus Reid2022-01-123429205390
Abacus2022-01-123230198380
Ekos2021-12-2132252344120
Leger2021-12-053629197360
Mainstreet2021-11-3033.530.315.75.53.211.80
Abacus2021-11-303230208370
Angus Reid2021-11-293529207270
Ekos2021-11-2130.426.619.15.95.212.80
Leger2021-11-073526228360
Mainstreet2021-10-2433.833.315.45.5390
Abacus2021-10-203330197380
Mainstreet2021-09-1933.430.418.162.1100
Ekos2021-09-1932.627.3187.33.910.90

Trend lines of all national polls published

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