Next Canadian federal election projection


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last updated: Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 13:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
28.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 31.6%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
34.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.4%
Change since last election: ▼1.7%
34.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
18.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
20.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 20.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.7%
22.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.9%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 6.9%
Change since last election: ▲0.1%
7.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
2.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.2%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 3.2%
Change since last election: ▲0.3%
3.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
5.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.4%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 6.4%
Change since last election: ▲0.6%
7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
126 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
156
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 156
Change since last election: ▼4
162 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
107 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
115
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 115
Change since last election: ▼4
140 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
25 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
33
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 33
Change since last election: ▲8
49 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
26 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
31
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 31
Change since last election: ▼1
39 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲1
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm:Date:Lib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherPoll weight:
Abacus2022-02-223131208370.368
Ipsos2022-02-213232236340.287
Mainstreet2022-02-1730.638.714.66.31.97.90.079
Abacus2022-02-083330198370
Leger2022-02-063329218450.112
Mainstreet2022-01-2329.429.316.75.83.215.60
Leger2022-01-233431187370
Ekos2022-01-1730.329.719.55.94.510.10.089
Angus Reid2022-01-123429205390.067
Abacus2022-01-123230198380
Ekos2021-12-2132252344120
Leger2021-12-053629197360
Mainstreet2021-11-3033.530.315.75.53.211.80
Abacus2021-11-303230208370
Angus Reid2021-11-293529207270
Ekos2021-11-2130.426.619.15.95.212.80
Leger2021-11-073526228360
Mainstreet2021-10-2433.833.315.45.5390
Abacus2021-10-203330197380
Mainstreet2021-09-1933.430.418.162.1100
Ekos2021-09-1932.627.3187.33.910.90
Forum2021-09-1929.43316.26.92.911.60
Research Co.2021-09-193232197460
Abacus2021-09-193132197470
Counsel2021-09-183130197490
Ipsos2021-09-183132217360
Ekos2021-09-1832.126.918.57.24.410.90
Mainstreet2021-09-1831.930.5196.42.59.70
Abacus2021-09-183231216370
Angus Reid2021-09-183032207380

Trend lines of all national polls published

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