Next Canadian federal election projection
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last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
31.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 34.9%
 Most likely vote total: 34.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.4% 38.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
27.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 30.5%
 Most likely vote total: 30.5%
Change since last election: ▼4% 33.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
16.9%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.8%
 Most likely vote total: 18.8%
Change since last election: ▲2.1% 20.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  |
6.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.7%
 Most likely vote total: 6.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.9% 7.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
5.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6%
 Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▼0.8% 6.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
2.7%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3%
 Most likely vote total: 3%
Change since last election: ▲1.3% 3.3%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
145 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 172
Most likely seat total: 172
Change since last election: ▲15 185 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
93 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 109
Most likely seat total: 109
Change since last election: ▼12 128 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 25
Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▲1 43 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc |
18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 27
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5 37 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2 7 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Polling Firm: | Date: | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Reid | 2021-02-19 | 34 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.428 |  |
| Leger | 2021-02-14 | 36 | 29 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0.133 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-02-10 | 33 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0.063 | |
| Abacus | 2021-02-03 | 32 | 31 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0.061 | |
| Innovative | 2021-02-01 | 38 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0.035 | |
| Leger | 2021-01-31 | 37 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Campaign | 2021-01-30 | 34 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 0.056 | |
| EKOS | 2021-01-27 | 34.3 | 30.9 | 15 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 0.055 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-01-24 | 35 | 30 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-01-20 | 39.3 | 31.9 | 14.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4 | 0.05 | |
| Leger | 2021-01-17 | 36 | 29 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-01-12 | 35 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-01-06 | 36 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-01-03 | 35 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Pollara | 2020-12-23 | 38 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.044 | |
| Abacus | 2020-12-18 | 35 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | |
| Research Co. | 2020-12-14 | 37 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0.032 | |
| Ipsos | 2020-12-14 | 35 | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2020-12-13 | 35 | 29 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Campaign | 2020-12-03 | 35 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2020-11-30 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2020-11-29 | 34 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2020-11-26 | 39 | 31.7 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2020-11-26 | 35 | 31.3 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 0.018 | |
| Delphi | 2020-11-25 | 38 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0.025 | |
| Abacus | 2020-11-24 | 36 | 30 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2020-11-23 | 36 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2020-11-15 | 35 | 31 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2020-11-12 | 38 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2020-11-09 | 35 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
Trend lines of all national polls published
