Next Canadian federal election projection
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last updated: Friday, May 28, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
32%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 35.6%
 Most likely vote total: 35.6%
Change since last election: ▲3.2% 39.1%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
27.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 30.2%
 Most likely vote total: 30.2%
Change since last election: ▼4.3% 33.3%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
15.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 17.3%
 Most likely vote total: 17.3%
Change since last election: ▲0.6% 19%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  |
5.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.1%
 Most likely vote total: 6.1%
Change since last election: ▼1.5% 6.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.6%
 Most likely vote total: 6.6%
Change since last election: ▼0.1% 7.3%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
3.8%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.2%
 Most likely vote total: 4.2%
Change since last election: ▲2% 4.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
150 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 181
Most likely seat total: 181
Change since last election: ▲24 190 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
94 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 108
Most likely seat total: 108
Change since last election: ▼13 132 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 24
Most likely seat total: 24
Change since last election: ▲0 43 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc |
12 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 20
Most likely seat total: 20
Change since last election: ▼12 34 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Polling Firm: | Date: | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2021-05-23 | 34 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0.272 |  |
| Mainstreet | 2021-05-23 | 37.2 | 31.4 | 13.3 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 6 | 0.263 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-05-17 | 34 | 32 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0.087 | |
| Leger | 2021-05-16 | 32 | 31 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-05-14 | 38 | 29 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0.079 | |
| Abacus | 2021-05-12 | 34 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0.052 | |
| Leger | 2021-05-09 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| EKOS | 2021-05-06 | 36 | 26.1 | 19.7 | 4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0.067 | |
| Innovative | 2021-05-05 | 40 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0.029 | |
| Leger | 2021-04-25 | 34 | 28 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-04-25 | 34 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-04-25 | 36 | 29 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-04-21 | 35 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-04-21 | 38 | 27 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-04-18 | 36.8 | 29.6 | 14.9 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-04-14 | 37 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Innovative | 2021-04-13 | 39 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | |
| Stratcom | 2021-04-13 | 33.1 | 30.2 | 15.9 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 7 | 0.064 | |
| Leger | 2021-04-11 | 35 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-04-09 | 40 | 30 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Campaign | 2021-04-08 | 34 | 33 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0.035 | |
| Abacus | 2021-03-30 | 38 | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2021-03-28 | 35 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2021-03-22 | 37 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-03-17 | 33 | 29 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | |
| Research Co. | 2021-03-15 | 37 | 28 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.051 | |
| Leger | 2021-03-14 | 36 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Abacus | 2021-03-05 | 34 | 30 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2021-03-03 | 35 | 28 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2021-03-03 | 35 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
Trend lines of all national polls published
