Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: Québec


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last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
30.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 33.5%
Change since last election: ▼0.7%
36.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
15.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
17.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 17.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.5%
19.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
11.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 12.4%
Change since last election: ▲1.7%
13.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
25.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.8%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 28.8%
Change since last election: ▼3.7%
31.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
4.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5%
Change since last election: ▲0.5%
5.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.8%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.8%
Change since last election: ▲0.7%
3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
27 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
36
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 36
Change since last election: ▲1
45 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
11
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▲1
16 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5
37 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 27 18 15 33 4 3 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 23 17 12 42 4 1 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 51 9 13 18 7 1 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 47 13 9 25 4 2 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 37 14 9 32 6 2 LEANS LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 33 8 9 47 2 0 BQ
Beauce CON 10 25 4 14 3 44 OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 19 32 7 33 3 5 TOSS-UP
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 26 28 11 27 5 3 TOSS-UP
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 17 18 7 53 4 1 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 15 54 7 19 4 3 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 16 8 17 53 5 1 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 12 11 41 33 0 2 LEANS NDP
Bourassa LIB 57 9 10 19 4 2 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 37 14 10 30 6 2 LEANS LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 53 12 11 16 6 1 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 19 41 9 23 4 3 CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 38 13 9 33 4 2 LEANS LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 14 43 8 29 4 2 CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 36 16 12 28 6 2 LEANS LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 52 12 14 14 6 3 LIB
Drummond BQ 16 18 18 41 4 2 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 42 10 6 37 4 2 LEANS LIB
Gatineau LIB 51 12 13 18 5 1 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 37 6 21 34 1 2 LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 58 11 10 17 3 1 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 53 11 16 11 8 2 LIB
Joliette BQ 21 11 6 55 5 2 BQ
Jonquière BQ 10 28 26 31 3 1 LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 29 9 13 44 4 2 BQ
La Prairie BQ 35 11 10 39 5 1 LEANS BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 38 21 0 33 2 5 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 57 17 14 2 8 2 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 42 8 19 20 8 2 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 32 9 8 44 6 2 BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 56 4 20 16 3 2 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 47 18 11 17 5 2 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 15 48 8 21 3 4 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 38 9 12 32 7 1 LEANS LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 34 8 5 35 16 1 TOSS-UP
Louis-Hébert LIB 40 19 10 24 5 2 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 19 48 8 19 4 3 CON
Manicouagan BQ 18 22 5 50 4 1 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 44 11 10 29 4 1 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 14 53 6 22 3 3 CON
Mirabel BQ 27 11 7 48 6 2 BQ
Montarville BQ 34 9 10 40 6 2 LEANS BQ
Montcalm BQ 19 11 8 55 5 2 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 11 42 8 35 2 1 LEANS CON
Mount Royal LIB 57 5 21 10 6 1 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 55 13 17 2 12 2 LIB
Outremont LIB 44 8 22 11 13 2 LIB
Papineau LIB 50 6 21 13 8 2 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 29 10 11 50 0 1 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 54 19 12 6 6 3 LIB
Pontiac LIB 47 19 12 13 7 2 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 18 47 7 20 4 3 CON
Québec LIB 40 14 9 29 6 2 LIB
Repentigny BQ 26 9 9 50 4 2 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 14 54 2 24 6 1 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 21 14 25 37 2 1 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 39 10 6 32 6 7 LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 21 14 9 49 6 2 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 22 3 52 15 6 2 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 20 16 21 38 4 1 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 29 9 8 42 6 7 BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 57 19 12 5 6 2 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 60 13 8 7 3 9 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 39 18 7 30 4 2 LEANS LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 28 11 10 44 4 2 BQ
Shefford BQ 35 14 8 36 5 2 TOSS-UP
Sherbrooke LIB 28 12 31 22 5 2 LEANS NDP
Terrebonne BQ 28 9 9 47 4 2 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 34 11 9 39 5 1 LEANS BQ
Trois-Rivières BQ 23 30 18 25 2 1 LEANS CON
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 46 13 13 21 6 1 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 52 10 18 10 8 2 LIB
Vimy LIB 47 12 10 24 4 2 LIB
Calculated Politics