Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: Québec


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last updated: Wednesday, January 12, 2022 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
35.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 35.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.9%
39.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
14.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 16.4%
Change since last election: ▼2.3%
18.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
13% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
14.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 14.4%
Change since last election: ▲4.6%
15.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
21.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
24.2%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 24.2%
Change since last election: ▼7.9%
26.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
3.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.7%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 3.7%
Change since last election: ▲2.2%
4.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
5.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
6.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
31 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
40
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 40
Change since last election: ▲5
49 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
8 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▲0
16 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
15 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
26
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 26
Change since last election: ▼6
32 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name:IncumbentLib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherProjected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouLIB2713182949LEANS BQ
Abitibi—TémiscamingueLIB2610114148BQ
Ahuntsic-CartiervilleCON546171464LIB
Alfred-PellanLIB5011121844LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-NationCON4111122619LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—MatapédiaLIB24795118BQ
BeauceLIB1355610313CON
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-CharlevoixBQ232993145LEANS BQ
Beauport—LimoilouLIB2726162353TOSS-UP
Bécancour—Nicolet—SaurelLIB1915104647BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—LévisLIB1749101645CON
Beloeil—ChamblyLIB257144356BQ
Berthier—MaskinongéLIB1810253736BQ
BourassaBQ625121145LIB
Brome—MissisquoiBQ3714112657LIB
Brossard—Saint-LambertBQ5610161315LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesBQ2142111744CON
Châteauguay—LacolleBQ409122847LIB
Chicoutimi—Le FjordLIB204092633CON
Compton—StansteadLIB3915122267LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalleBQ53918866LIB
DrummondLIB2016173818BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-MadeleineLIB50683014LIB
GatineauCON529131547LIB
HochelagaLIB393282254LIB
Honoré-MercierBQ61812946LIB
Hull—AylmerLIB53818966LIB
JolietteCON248104657BQ
JonquièreBQ352603342LEANS LIB
La Pointe-de-l'ÎleLIB345153816LEANS BQ
La PrairieCON318124044BQ
Lac-Saint-JeanBQ212474341BQ
Lac-Saint-LouisBQ551518164LIB
LaSalle—Émard—VerdunBQ435251466LIB
Laurentides—LabelleCON268114158BQ
Laurier—Sainte-MarieLIB372401254LEANS NDP
Laval—Les ÎlesLIB5115121247LIB
Lévis—LotbinièreLIB1649121545CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyneLIB436162655LIB
Longueuil—Saint-HubertBQ475123104LIB
Louis-HébertLIB4121121962LIB
Louis-Saint-LaurentLIB194991345CON
ManicouaganCON212184514BQ
Marc-Aurèle-FortinLIB4710142216LIB
Mégantic—L'ÉrableBQ155471348CON
MirabelCON2511133758BQ
MontarvilleBQ378143713TOSS-UP
MontcalmBQ2110114469BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-LoupBQ204972014CON
Mount RoyalNDP572012164LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—WestmountBQ521124175LIB
OutremontBQ44633863LIB
PapineauLIB50328765LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—VerchèresLIB287134615BQ
Pierrefonds—DollardLIB571717315LIB
PontiacBQ3425171167LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-CartierBQ1750101616CON
QuébecLIB3715192053LIB
RepentignyBQ307134316BQ
Richmond—ArthabaskaBQ174891818CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les BasquesBQ281264419BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesLIB378123257LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-NordLIB2410124419BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieLIB212581251NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—BagotCON2512184013BQ
Saint-JeanCON3011123755LEANS BQ
Saint-LaurentCON601516315LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-MichelCON70813315LIB
Saint-Maurice—ChamplainCON4515102245LIB
Salaberry—SuroîtCON2911133917BQ
SheffordCON3111103658LEANS BQ
SherbrookeCON3910202065LIB
TerrebonneCON3191132414TOSS-UP
Thérèse-De BlainvilleCON379123255LEANS LIB
Trois-RivièresCON372702845LIB
Vaudreuil—SoulangesCON4814151463LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-SoeursCON511024564LIB
VimyCON5211141616LIB
Calculated Politics