Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: Québec
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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 28.7% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 31.9%  Most likely vote total: 31.9% Change since last election: ▼1.8% 35.1% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 18.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 20.1%  Most likely vote total: 20.1% Change since last election: ▲1.4% 22.1% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 9.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 10.9%  Most likely vote total: 10.9% Change since last election: ▲1.1% 12% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  | 26.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 29.5%  Most likely vote total: 29.5% Change since last election: ▼2.6% 32.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 4.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.6%  Most likely vote total: 4.6% Change since last election: ▲3.1% 5.1% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 2.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.1%  Most likely vote total: 3.1% Change since last election: ▼1.2% 3.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 23 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 36 Most likely seat total: 36 Change since last election: ▲1 40 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 8 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 11 Most likely seat total: 11 Change since last election: ▲1 17 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 5 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc | 22 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 30 Most likely seat total: 30 Change since last election: ▼2 38 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | LIB | 24 | 17 | 14 | 35 | 5 | 6 | BQ |
| Abitibi—Témiscamingue | LIB | 22 | 13 | 7 | 48 | 5 | 5 | BQ |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | CON | 50 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Alfred-Pellan | LIB | 46 | 14 | 9 | 23 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | CON | 38 | 14 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia | LIB | 20 | 10 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 4 | BQ |
| Beauce | LIB | 11 | 62 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 8 | CON |
| Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix | BQ | 19 | 33 | 6 | 36 | 5 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Beauport—Limoilou | LIB | 23 | 30 | 12 | 28 | 6 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel | LIB | 15 | 18 | 6 | 52 | 5 | 4 | BQ |
| Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | LIB | 14 | 53 | 6 | 20 | 5 | 2 | CON |
| Beloeil—Chambly | LIB | 22 | 9 | 10 | 50 | 6 | 3 | BQ |
| Berthier—Maskinongé | LIB | 16 | 13 | 20 | 44 | 4 | 3 | BQ |
| Bourassa | BQ | 58 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Brome—Missisquoi | BQ | 33 | 17 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Brossard—Saint-Lambert | BQ | 53 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
| Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | BQ | 18 | 47 | 7 | 21 | 5 | 2 | CON |
| Châteauguay—Lacolle | BQ | 36 | 12 | 9 | 33 | 5 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | LIB | 16 | 44 | 6 | 29 | 4 | 1 | CON |
| Compton—Stanstead | LIB | 35 | 18 | 9 | 27 | 8 | 4 | LIB |
| Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | BQ | 50 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 3 | LIB |
| Drummond | LIB | 17 | 19 | 13 | 44 | 1 | 4 | BQ |
| Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | LIB | 46 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Gatineau | CON | 48 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
| Hochelaga | LIB | 36 | 5 | 23 | 28 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Honoré-Mercier | BQ | 58 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Hull—Aylmer | LIB | 50 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 4 | LIB |
| Joliette | CON | 21 | 10 | 7 | 52 | 6 | 4 | BQ |
| Jonquière | BQ | 29 | 29 | 0 | 37 | 5 | 0 | LEANS BQ |
| La Pointe-de-l'Île | LIB | 31 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 4 | BQ |
| La Prairie | CON | 27 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 5 | 2 | BQ |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ | 17 | 27 | 4 | 47 | 5 | 0 | BQ |
| Lac-Saint-Louis | BQ | 53 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | BQ | 40 | 8 | 21 | 19 | 8 | 4 | LIB |
| Laurentides—Labelle | CON | 23 | 11 | 7 | 47 | 7 | 5 | BQ |
| Laurier—Sainte-Marie | LIB | 35 | 4 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Laval—Les Îles | LIB | 47 | 19 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
| Lévis—Lotbinière | LIB | 13 | 54 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | LIB | 39 | 9 | 12 | 31 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | BQ | 44 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Louis-Hébert | LIB | 36 | 25 | 9 | 23 | 7 | 0 | LIB |
| Louis-Saint-Laurent | LIB | 15 | 54 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 3 | CON |
| Manicouagan | CON | 18 | 24 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 2 | BQ |
| Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LIB | 44 | 13 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
| Mégantic—L'Érable | BQ | 12 | 59 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 5 | CON |
| Mirabel | CON | 21 | 14 | 10 | 43 | 6 | 5 | BQ |
| Montarville | BQ | 33 | 11 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 1 | BQ |
| Montcalm | BQ | 18 | 13 | 8 | 50 | 7 | 5 | BQ |
| Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup | BQ | 16 | 54 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 2 | CON |
| Mount Royal | NDP | 54 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | BQ | 51 | 15 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 3 | LIB |
| Outremont | BQ | 42 | 8 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| Papineau | LIB | 48 | 6 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères | LIB | 24 | 10 | 9 | 52 | 1 | 2 | BQ |
| Pierrefonds—Dollard | LIB | 55 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
| Pontiac | BQ | 30 | 29 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 4 | TOSS-UP |
| Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | BQ | 14 | 55 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 3 | CON |
| Québec | LIB | 33 | 19 | 15 | 25 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Repentigny | BQ | 26 | 10 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 3 | BQ |
| Richmond—Arthabaska | BQ | 13 | 53 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 5 | CON |
| Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques | BQ | 24 | 15 | 4 | 51 | 1 | 5 | BQ |
| Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | LIB | 33 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 6 | 4 | LEANS BQ |
| Rivière-du-Nord | LIB | 21 | 13 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 6 | BQ |
| Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | LIB | 20 | 4 | 52 | 17 | 6 | 0 | NDP |
| Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot | CON | 22 | 15 | 14 | 47 | 2 | 1 | BQ |
| Saint-Jean | CON | 26 | 14 | 9 | 43 | 6 | 3 | BQ |
| Saint-Laurent | CON | 58 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
| Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | CON | 68 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
| Saint-Maurice—Champlain | CON | 41 | 19 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Salaberry—Suroît | CON | 26 | 14 | 9 | 46 | 1 | 4 | BQ |
| Shefford | CON | 27 | 14 | 7 | 42 | 6 | 5 | BQ |
| Sherbrooke | CON | 35 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Terrebonne | CON | 28 | 11 | 8 | 39 | 5 | 9 | BQ |
| Thérèse-De Blainville | CON | 33 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 6 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Trois-Rivières | CON | 32 | 30 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Vaudreuil—Soulanges | CON | 44 | 17 | 12 | 19 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | CON | 48 | 13 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Vimy | CON | 49 | 15 | 11 | 21 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
