Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: Québec


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last updated: Friday, May 28, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
35.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
39.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 39.3%
Change since last election: ▲5.1%
43.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
14.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 16.4%
Change since last election: ▲0.4%
18% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
8.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
9.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 9.5%
Change since last election: ▼1.2%
10.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
23.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
26.4%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 26.4%
Change since last election: ▼6.1%
29% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
5.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.8%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5.8%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
6.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.6%
Change since last election: ▲0.5%
2.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
45
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 45
Change since last election: ▲10
53 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▲0
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
12 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
20
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 20
Change since last election: ▼12
34 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 32 18 12 31 5 3 LEANS LIB
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 29 16 9 40 5 1 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 57 8 10 16 8 1 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 53 11 7 22 5 2 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 43 13 7 30 6 2 LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 39 8 7 44 3 0 LEANS BQ
Beauce CON 14 24 3 13 3 43 OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 24 31 5 31 4 5 TOSS-UP
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 32 27 8 25 6 2 LEANS LIB
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 21 17 5 51 5 1 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 20 52 4 17 4 3 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 21 7 14 50 6 1 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 17 11 37 33 0 2 LEANS NDP
Bourassa LIB 63 8 7 17 4 2 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 43 13 7 28 7 2 LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 59 11 8 14 7 1 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 25 40 7 21 5 3 CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 44 12 7 30 5 2 LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 19 42 6 27 4 2 CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 42 15 9 25 7 2 LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 58 11 11 11 7 2 LIB
Drummond BQ 21 18 15 39 5 2 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 48 9 4 34 4 2 LIB
Gatineau LIB 57 11 10 16 5 1 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 44 5 17 32 1 2 LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 64 10 7 14 4 1 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 59 9 12 9 9 2 LIB
Joliette BQ 27 10 4 52 6 2 BQ
Jonquière BQ 15 28 23 30 3 1 LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 35 8 10 41 5 1 LEANS BQ
La Prairie BQ 41 10 7 36 6 1 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 43 20 0 30 3 5 LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 62 15 11 1 8 2 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 48 7 15 18 9 2 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 37 8 6 41 6 2 LEANS BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 62 3 16 14 3 2 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 53 17 8 15 6 2 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 20 47 6 19 4 4 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 44 8 9 30 7 1 LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 39 7 3 32 18 1 LEANS LIB
Louis-Hébert LIB 46 18 7 22 5 2 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 24 47 6 17 5 3 CON
Manicouagan BQ 23 21 3 48 5 1 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 50 10 8 26 5 1 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 19 51 3 20 4 3 CON
Mirabel BQ 32 10 4 45 7 2 BQ
Montarville BQ 40 8 8 37 7 1 LEANS LIB
Montcalm BQ 24 10 6 52 6 2 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 15 41 6 34 3 1 LEANS CON
Mount Royal LIB 63 4 16 8 7 1 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 60 12 14 1 12 2 LIB
Outremont LIB 50 7 18 9 14 1 LIB
Papineau LIB 56 5 18 11 9 2 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 35 9 8 47 1 1 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 60 17 9 4 6 3 LIB
Pontiac LIB 53 17 9 11 8 2 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 23 45 5 18 5 3 CON
Québec LIB 46 13 6 26 7 2 LIB
Repentigny BQ 32 8 6 47 5 2 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 18 52 0 22 7 1 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 26 13 21 36 3 1 LEANS BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 45 9 4 29 7 6 LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 26 13 6 46 7 1 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 28 3 46 14 8 2 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 25 15 17 36 5 1 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 35 8 5 39 7 6 LEANS BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 62 17 9 4 7 1 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 65 12 6 5 4 8 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 45 17 4 28 4 2 LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 34 11 7 42 5 2 LEANS BQ
Shefford BQ 41 13 5 33 6 1 LEANS LIB
Sherbrooke LIB 34 11 27 20 6 2 LEANS LIB
Terrebonne BQ 34 8 7 44 5 2 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 40 10 7 36 6 1 LEANS LIB
Trois-Rivières BQ 29 29 15 23 3 1 TOSS-UP
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 52 12 10 18 6 1 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 58 9 14 8 9 2 LIB
Vimy LIB 53 11 8 22 5 1 LIB
Calculated Politics