Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: Prairies


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last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
21.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
24.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 24.3%
Change since last election: ▲5.2%
26.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
41.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
46.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 46.5%
Change since last election: ▼8.1%
51.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
19.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
22%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 22%
Change since last election: ▲1.9%
24.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
2.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 2.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.2%
2.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
4.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.6%
Change since last election: ▲2.3%
5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▲4
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
12 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
17
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 17
Change since last election: ▼4
24 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲0
11 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Manitoba

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Brandon—Souris CON 15 62 13 0 5 5 CON
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley CON 34 28 17 0 3 18 LEANS LIB
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP 27 15 54 0 2 2 NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CON 17 61 15 0 4 4 CON
Elmwood—Transcona NDP 23 28 45 0 2 3 NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul CON 33 42 19 0 2 3 LEANS CON
Portage—Lisgar CON 11 68 11 0 3 6 CON
Provencher CON 17 61 15 0 3 4 CON
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital LIB 49 27 18 0 4 2 LIB
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CON 17 54 22 0 4 3 CON
Winnipeg Centre NDP 40 14 39 0 3 4 LEANS LIB
Winnipeg North LIB 47 18 29 0 1 4 LIB
Winnipeg South LIB 48 33 16 0 2 2 LIB
Winnipeg South Centre LIB 51 24 18 0 4 2 LIB

Saskatchewan

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Battlefords—Lloydminster CON 12 68 14 0 1 4 CON
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CON 9 69 15 0 2 5 CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands CON 10 70 12 0 2 7 CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River CON 35 32 30 0 1 3 LEANS LIB
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CON 10 62 20 0 2 6 CON
Prince Albert CON 16 56 21 0 2 5 CON
Regina—Lewvan CON 19 43 30 0 4 4 CON
Regina—Qu'Appelle CON 17 52 23 0 3 5 CON
Regina—Wascana CON 43 38 14 0 2 3 LEANS LIB
Saskatoon West CON 11 38 44 0 2 4 LEANS NDP
Saskatoon—Grasswood CON 24 41 29 0 2 4 CON
Saskatoon—University CON 19 43 31 0 3 5 CON
Souris—Moose Mountain CON 10 74 10 0 1 5 CON
Yorkton—Melville CON 11 67 15 0 2 6 CON
Calculated Politics