Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: Prairies


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last updated: Friday, May 28, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
19.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
22%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 22%
Change since last election: ▲2.9%
24.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
41.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
45.8%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 45.8%
Change since last election: ▼8.8%
50.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
19.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
21.6%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 21.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.4%
23.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
4.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.6%
6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
4.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.1%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5.1%
Change since last election: ▲2.9%
5.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
7
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 7
Change since last election: ▲3
12 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
11 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
18
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 18
Change since last election: ▼3
25 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲0
12 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Manitoba

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Brandon—Souris CON 12 63 11 0 8 5 CON
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley CON 30 31 14 0 6 20 TOSS-UP
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP 24 18 51 0 5 3 NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CON 14 63 13 0 6 4 CON
Elmwood—Transcona NDP 20 31 41 0 4 3 NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul CON 29 45 17 0 5 4 CON
Portage—Lisgar CON 9 71 8 0 6 7 CON
Provencher CON 14 64 12 0 6 4 CON
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital LIB 45 31 15 0 6 3 LIB
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CON 13 56 19 0 8 3 CON
Winnipeg Centre NDP 37 17 36 0 6 4 TOSS-UP
Winnipeg North LIB 43 21 27 0 4 5 LIB
Winnipeg South LIB 44 36 13 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Winnipeg South Centre LIB 47 28 16 0 7 2 LIB

Saskatchewan

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Battlefords—Lloydminster CON 11 64 16 0 4 5 CON
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CON 8 64 17 0 4 6 CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands CON 9 65 13 0 4 8 CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River CON 33 28 32 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CON 9 57 22 0 5 7 CON
Prince Albert CON 15 52 23 0 4 6 CON
Regina—Lewvan CON 18 39 32 0 7 4 LEANS CON
Regina—Qu'Appelle CON 16 48 25 0 6 5 CON
Regina—Wascana CON 42 34 15 0 5 4 LEANS LIB
Saskatoon West CON 11 34 46 0 5 5 NDP
Saskatoon—Grasswood CON 23 37 31 0 5 4 LEANS CON
Saskatoon—University CON 18 38 33 0 6 5 LEANS CON
Souris—Moose Mountain CON 9 70 11 0 4 6 CON
Yorkton—Melville CON 10 62 16 0 5 6 CON
Calculated Politics