Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: Prairies
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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 20.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 22.4%  Most likely vote total: 22.4% Change since last election: ▲2.9% 24.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 44.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 49.8%  Most likely vote total: 49.8% Change since last election: ▲0.8% 54.8% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 18% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 20%  Most likely vote total: 20% Change since last election: ▼2.1% 22% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 2.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 2.5%  Most likely vote total: 2.5% Change since last election: ▲1.2% 2.8% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 4.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5.3%  Most likely vote total: 5.3% Change since last election: ▼2.8% 5.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 1 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 4 Most likely seat total: 4 Change since last election: ▲0 10 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 14 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 21 Most likely seat total: 21 Change since last election: ▲0 25 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3 Most likely seat total: 3 Change since last election: ▲0 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
Manitoba
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon—Souris | LIB | 12 | 66 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 5 | CON |
| Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley | LIB | 31 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | CON |
| Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | CON | 24 | 29 | 38 | 0 | 5 | 3 | NDP |
| Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa | LIB | 12 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | CON |
| Elmwood—Transcona | LIB | 14 | 35 | 45 | 0 | 3 | 3 | NDP |
| Kildonan—St. Paul | NDP | 37 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 4 | CON |
| Portage—Lisgar | LIB | 11 | 63 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | CON |
| Provencher | LIB | 16 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | CON |
| Saint Boniface—Saint Vital | LIB | 44 | 34 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | LIB |
| Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | CON | 11 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5 | CON |
| Winnipeg Centre | LIB | 29 | 18 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 4 | NDP |
| Winnipeg North | LIB | 55 | 18 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Winnipeg South | LIB | 51 | 30 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Winnipeg South Centre | LIB | 46 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
Saskatchewan
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battlefords—Lloydminster | BQ | 12 | 60 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 10 | CON |
| Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | BQ | 10 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 9 | CON |
| Cypress Hills—Grasslands | LIB | 10 | 66 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 9 | CON |
| Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | LIB | 37 | 38 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 3 | TOSS-UP |
| Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | LIB | 12 | 52 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 10 | CON |
| Prince Albert | BQ | 18 | 55 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 6 | CON |
| Regina—Lewvan | CON | 21 | 40 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Regina—Qu'Appelle | BQ | 15 | 55 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 3 | CON |
| Regina—Wascana | BQ | 4 | 68 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 2 | CON |
| Saskatoon West | BQ | 32 | 35 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Saskatoon—Grasswood | CON | 22 | 39 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Saskatoon—University | BQ | 17 | 42 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Souris—Moose Mountain | BQ | 10 | 71 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 8 | CON |
| Yorkton—Melville | LIB | 12 | 61 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 8 | CON |
