Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: ONTARIO
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last updated: Monday, September 20, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 35% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 38.9%  Most likely vote total: 38.9% Change since last election: ▼2.6% 42.8% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 28.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 31.6%  Most likely vote total: 31.6% Change since last election: ▼1.6% 34.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 16.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.7%  Most likely vote total: 18.7% Change since last election: ▲1.9% 20.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 2.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.3%  Most likely vote total: 3.3% Change since last election: ▼2.9% 3.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 6.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 7.6%  Most likely vote total: 7.6% Change since last election: ▲5.3% 8.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 57 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 77 Most likely seat total: 77 Change since last election: ▼2 85 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 27 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 36 Most likely seat total: 36 Change since last election: ▲0 54 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 4 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 8 Most likely seat total: 8 Change since last election: ▲2 21 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | LIB | 57 | 26 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing | NDP | 20 | 25 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 8 | NDP |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | CON | 48 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LIB |
| Barrie—Innisfil | CON | 28 | 40 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 7 | CON |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | CON | 30 | 39 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 6 | LEANS CON |
| Bay of Quinte | LIB | 36 | 36 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 7 | TOSS-UP |
| Beaches—East York | LIB | 61 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 7 | LIB |
| Brampton Centre | LIB | 46 | 24 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LIB |
| Brampton East | LIB | 44 | 20 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6 | LIB |
| Brampton North | LIB | 50 | 28 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | LIB |
| Brampton South | LIB | 46 | 27 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LIB |
| Brampton West | LIB | 48 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LIB |
| Brantford—Brant | CON | 28 | 39 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 10 | CON |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CON | 27 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 9 | CON |
| Burlington | LIB | 46 | 33 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
| Cambridge | LIB | 35 | 28 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 11 | LEANS LIB |
| Carleton | CON | 33 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 6 | CON |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | CON | 29 | 45 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 9 | CON |
| Davenport | LIB | 54 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LIB |
| Don Valley East | LIB | 57 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LIB |
| Don Valley North | LIB | 48 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 5 | LIB |
| Don Valley West | LIB | 51 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | LIB |
| Dufferin—Caledon | CON | 31 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 9 | CON |
| Durham | CON | 30 | 38 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LEANS CON |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | LIB | 51 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 5 | LIB |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | CON | 32 | 36 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 10 | LEANS CON |
| Essex | CON | 15 | 41 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 7 | LEANS CON |
| Etobicoke Centre | LIB | 51 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 6 | LIB |
| Etobicoke North | LIB | 58 | 19 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 9 | LIB |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | LIB | 49 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | CON | 32 | 39 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LEANS CON |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | LIB | 42 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Guelph | LIB | 40 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 21 | 9 | LIB |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | CON | 23 | 42 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 12 | CON |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | CON | 23 | 50 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 6 | CON |
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | 24 | 13 | 49 | 0 | 4 | 10 | NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | LIB | 34 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | 28 | 24 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS NDP |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | LIB | 44 | 24 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 7 | LIB |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | CON | 33 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LEANS CON |
| Humber River—Black Creek | LIB | 57 | 15 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LIB |
| Huron—Bruce | CON | 28 | 48 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 7 | CON |
| Kanata—Carleton | LIB | 40 | 33 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Kenora | CON | 27 | 31 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 7 | TOSS-UP |
| Kingston and the Islands | LIB | 43 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 8 | LIB |
| King—Vaughan | LIB | 46 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener Centre | LIB | 11 | 29 | 26 | 0 | 26 | 8 | LEANS CON |
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | LIB | 39 | 31 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | LIB | 38 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | CON | 22 | 49 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 10 | CON |
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | CON | 21 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 7 | CON |
| Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CON | 22 | 50 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 7 | CON |
| London North Centre | LIB | 42 | 22 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 9 | LIB |
| London West | LIB | 41 | 24 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 8 | LIB |
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | 24 | 23 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 7 | NDP |
| Markham—Stouffville | LIB | 55 | 30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | LIB |
| Markham—Thornhill | LIB | 49 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 7 | LIB |
| Markham—Unionville | CON | 37 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6 | CON |
| Milton | LIB | 50 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | LIB |
| Mississauga Centre | LIB | 53 | 29 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 7 | LIB |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | LIB | 50 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 6 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | LIB | 49 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 6 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | LIB | 48 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Malton | LIB | 55 | 23 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 7 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | LIB | 48 | 33 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 6 | LIB |
| Nepean | LIB | 43 | 33 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Newmarket—Aurora | LIB | 38 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 9 | TOSS-UP |
| Niagara Centre | LIB | 37 | 31 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Niagara Falls | CON | 28 | 32 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 17 | LEANS CON |
| Niagara West | CON | 28 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | CON |
| Nickel Belt | LIB | 41 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 8 | LIB |
| Nipissing—Timiskaming | LIB | 36 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 13 | LEANS LIB |
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | CON | 34 | 39 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 8 | LEANS CON |
| Oakville | LIB | 45 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| Oakville North—Burlington | LIB | 46 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
| Orléans | LIB | 51 | 27 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 6 | LIB |
| Oshawa | CON | 21 | 39 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 8 | LEANS CON |
| Ottawa Centre | LIB | 40 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 8 | LIB |
| Ottawa South | LIB | 50 | 22 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LIB |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | LIB | 43 | 27 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 7 | LIB |
| Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 47 | 16 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LIB |
| Oxford | CON | 15 | 47 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 12 | CON |
| Parkdale—High Park | LIB | 47 | 12 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | CON | 28 | 40 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 6 | CON |
| Perth—Wellington | CON | 25 | 45 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 8 | CON |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | LIB | 27 | 39 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 8 | CON |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | LIB | 46 | 29 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LIB |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | CON | 16 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 19 | CON |
| Richmond Hill | LIB | 42 | 39 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Sarnia—Lambton | CON | 18 | 49 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 10 | CON |
| Sault Ste. Marie | LIB | 36 | 30 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| Scarborough Centre | LIB | 47 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 | LIB |
| Scarborough North | LIB | 53 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LIB |
| Scarborough Southwest | LIB | 55 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | LIB | 48 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | LIB | 57 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 8 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | LIB | 57 | 20 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 7 | LIB |
| Simcoe North | CON | 29 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 8 | CON |
| Simcoe—Grey | CON | 29 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 8 | CON |
| Spadina—Fort York | LIB | 50 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 16 | LIB |
| St. Catharines | LIB | 37 | 30 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | CON | 21 | 54 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 8 | CON |
| Sudbury | LIB | 40 | 18 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Thornhill | CON | 33 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 5 | CON |
| Thunder Bay—Rainy River | LIB | 35 | 29 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 40 | 24 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 8 | LIB |
| Timmins—James Bay | NDP | 21 | 25 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 10 | NDP |
| Toronto Centre | LIB | 73 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | LIB |
| Toronto—Danforth | LIB | 44 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | LIB | 52 | 21 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| University—Rosedale | LIB | 48 | 15 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 7 | LIB |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | LIB | 46 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Waterloo | LIB | 48 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 7 | LIB |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | CON | 26 | 45 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 8 | CON |
| Whitby | LIB | 41 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
| Willowdale | LIB | 46 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 7 | LIB |
| Windsor West | NDP | 31 | 18 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 7 | NDP |
| Windsor—Tecumseh | LIB | 31 | 18 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 16 | LEANS NDP |
| York Centre | LIB | 49 | 33 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | LIB |
| York South—Weston | LIB | 56 | 18 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 6 | LIB |
| York—Simcoe | CON | 23 | 44 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 12 | CON |
