Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: ONTARIO


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last updated: Friday, May 28, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
37.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
42.1%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 42.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.6%
46.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.4%
Change since last election: ▼2.8%
33.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
14.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.1%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 16.1%
Change since last election: ▼0.7%
17.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
5.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.4%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.4%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
4.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5%
Change since last election: ▲2.7%
5.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
65 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
82
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 82
Change since last election: ▲3
90 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
23 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
33
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 33
Change since last election: ▼3
46 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
5
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 5
Change since last election: ▼1
15 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 59 19 13 0 3 6 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 23 25 41 0 5 5 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 39 39 13 0 4 4 TOSS-UP
Barrie—Innisfil CON 29 42 16 0 9 4 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 32 37 15 0 13 4 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte LIB 39 34 17 0 6 4 LEANS LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 57 13 21 0 6 4 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 47 24 20 0 4 5 LIB
Brampton East LIB 48 21 26 0 1 3 LIB
Brampton North LIB 54 24 17 0 3 3 LIB
Brampton South LIB 49 26 18 0 4 4 LIB
Brampton West LIB 53 23 18 0 2 4 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 38 38 7 0 6 11 TOSS-UP
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 29 44 12 0 10 6 CON
Burlington LIB 51 29 10 0 6 3 LIB
Cambridge LIB 38 27 21 0 8 7 LIB
Carleton CON 29 54 9 0 5 3 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 31 53 10 0 0 6 CON
Davenport LIB 47 8 36 0 5 4 LIB
Don Valley East LIB 62 20 11 0 4 3 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 50 33 10 0 4 3 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 61 24 7 0 4 3 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 32 35 16 0 11 6 LEANS CON
Durham CON 32 40 18 0 6 4 LEANS CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 56 29 9 0 4 3 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 22 48 19 0 6 6 CON
Essex CON 18 41 33 0 3 4 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 52 31 8 0 5 4 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 62 20 11 0 3 5 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 54 25 12 0 6 4 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 35 37 18 0 6 4 LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 47 34 10 0 3 5 LIB
Guelph LIB 39 16 12 0 27 6 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 24 48 12 0 9 8 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 27 45 15 0 8 4 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 26 12 49 0 7 6 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 38 24 28 0 5 4 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 29 22 38 0 6 5 LEANS NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 47 24 17 0 8 4 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 38 38 13 0 6 5 TOSS-UP
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 60 14 21 0 2 4 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 32 48 12 0 4 4 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 43 33 13 0 7 4 LIB
Kenora CON 33 32 25 0 6 4 TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands LIB 48 16 23 0 8 5 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 45 40 8 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 36 19 6 0 34 5 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 40 30 14 0 11 5 LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 40 40 5 0 10 4 TOSS-UP
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 26 45 16 0 6 7 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 23 46 15 0 11 4 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 25 49 14 0 9 4 CON
London North Centre LIB 42 20 24 0 8 6 LIB
London West LIB 43 25 21 0 6 5 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 28 21 41 0 5 5 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 33 18 2 0 2 44 OTH
Markham—Thornhill LIB 53 33 7 0 3 3 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 37 47 7 0 5 4 CON
Milton LIB 56 31 3 0 5 4 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 58 25 10 0 3 4 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 53 31 10 0 3 4 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 53 31 9 0 4 3 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 49 34 9 0 5 3 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 58 23 12 0 3 4 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 53 29 10 0 4 4 LIB
Nepean LIB 45 31 14 0 6 3 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 43 36 10 0 6 5 LEANS LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 46 31 14 0 5 4 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 34 33 14 0 5 14 TOSS-UP
Niagara West CON 33 41 12 0 7 6 LEANS CON
Nickel Belt LIB 38 18 34 0 5 5 LEANS LIB
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 40 26 20 0 6 8 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 35 37 14 0 8 5 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 47 36 8 0 6 4 LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 51 33 9 0 4 3 LIB
Orléans LIB 54 26 13 0 5 3 LIB
Oshawa CON 35 44 12 0 5 4 LEANS CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 53 15 19 0 8 5 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 53 22 16 0 6 4 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 48 23 18 0 6 5 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 50 15 23 0 8 5 LIB
Oxford CON 18 47 19 0 8 8 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 47 11 32 0 7 4 LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 30 39 12 0 17 3 CON
Perth—Wellington CON 28 43 15 0 9 6 CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 39 32 19 0 7 4 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 51 28 12 0 6 4 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 19 58 16 0 6 2 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 44 40 9 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Sarnia—Lambton CON 22 46 22 0 4 7 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 38 29 25 0 4 4 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 56 17 11 0 4 12 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 54 27 13 0 2 3 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 57 18 15 0 5 4 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 53 32 9 0 2 3 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 60 20 12 0 3 5 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 62 19 11 0 4 4 LIB
Simcoe North CON 31 38 14 0 12 5 LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 31 41 11 0 12 5 CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 58 14 20 0 5 3 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 39 29 22 0 6 3 LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 24 53 14 0 4 4 CON
Sudbury LIB 40 17 29 0 7 6 LIB
Thornhill CON 35 53 7 0 3 3 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 37 25 29 0 4 4 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 42 23 23 0 8 4 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 25 26 40 0 3 6 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 57 10 23 0 7 3 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 48 9 32 0 7 4 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 57 18 15 0 6 3 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 50 14 24 0 9 4 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 51 35 8 0 3 4 LIB
Waterloo LIB 52 15 15 0 13 4 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 28 45 9 0 14 4 CON
Whitby LIB 46 31 14 0 5 3 LIB
Willowdale LIB 49 33 10 0 4 4 LIB
Windsor West NDP 50 18 28 0 0 4 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 47 24 15 0 4 10 LIB
York Centre LIB 56 32 10 0 1 2 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 61 16 17 0 3 3 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 25 44 15 0 9 7 CON
Calculated Politics