Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: ONTARIO


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last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
37.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
41.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 41.4%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
45.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.6%
Change since last election: ▼2.6%
33.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.4%
Change since last election: ▲1.6%
20.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
5.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▼0.2%
6.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
3.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
62 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
77
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 77
Change since last election: ▼2
87 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲1
47 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
6
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▲0
18 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 59 20 15 0 3 4 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 23 25 44 0 5 4 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 38 40 16 0 4 3 LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil CON 28 42 18 0 9 3 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 31 37 17 0 12 3 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte LIB 38 34 20 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 56 13 23 0 5 2 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 46 24 23 0 4 3 LIB
Brampton East LIB 47 21 29 0 1 2 LIB
Brampton North LIB 53 24 19 0 3 2 LIB
Brampton South LIB 48 26 20 0 4 3 LIB
Brampton West LIB 52 23 20 0 2 3 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 38 39 9 0 6 8 TOSS-UP
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 29 44 14 0 9 4 CON
Burlington LIB 51 29 12 0 6 2 LIB
Cambridge LIB 38 27 23 0 7 5 LIB
Carleton CON 29 54 11 0 4 2 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 30 54 12 0 0 4 CON
Davenport LIB 45 8 39 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Don Valley East LIB 61 20 13 0 3 2 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 50 33 12 0 4 2 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 60 24 9 0 4 2 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 31 35 19 0 10 4 LEANS CON
Durham CON 31 40 20 0 6 3 LEANS CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 55 29 10 0 4 2 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 21 48 22 0 5 4 CON
Essex CON 18 41 36 0 3 3 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 51 32 10 0 4 3 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 61 20 13 0 2 4 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 54 25 14 0 5 2 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 34 37 20 0 6 2 LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 46 35 12 0 3 4 LIB
Guelph LIB 39 16 15 0 27 4 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 23 48 14 0 8 6 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 26 46 17 0 8 3 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 25 11 53 0 7 4 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 38 24 30 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 28 22 41 0 6 4 NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 46 24 20 0 7 3 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 38 38 15 0 5 4 TOSS-UP
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 59 14 23 0 2 2 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 31 48 14 0 4 3 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 42 34 15 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Kenora CON 32 32 27 0 5 3 TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands LIB 47 16 25 0 8 4 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 44 41 9 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 36 19 8 0 33 3 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 39 31 16 0 11 4 LEANS LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 40 41 7 0 10 3 LEANS CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 26 45 18 0 5 5 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 23 46 18 0 11 3 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 25 49 16 0 8 3 CON
London North Centre LIB 41 21 27 0 7 4 LIB
London West LIB 42 25 23 0 5 3 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 27 21 44 0 4 4 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 36 20 3 0 2 39 LEANS OTH
Markham—Thornhill LIB 53 33 9 0 2 2 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 37 47 9 0 4 3 CON
Milton LIB 56 32 5 0 5 3 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 57 25 12 0 3 3 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 52 31 12 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 52 31 11 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 48 35 11 0 4 2 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 57 23 14 0 3 3 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 52 29 12 0 4 2 LIB
Nepean LIB 45 31 16 0 6 2 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 42 37 13 0 5 4 LEANS LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 45 31 16 0 5 3 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 33 34 16 0 5 12 TOSS-UP
Niagara West CON 33 42 14 0 6 5 LEANS CON
Nickel Belt LIB 36 18 37 0 5 3 TOSS-UP
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 39 26 22 0 6 7 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 34 38 17 0 8 3 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 46 36 9 0 6 2 LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 50 34 10 0 4 2 LIB
Orléans LIB 53 26 15 0 4 2 LIB
Oshawa CON 34 45 14 0 4 3 CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 52 15 22 0 7 4 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 52 22 18 0 6 3 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 47 23 21 0 6 3 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 49 15 25 0 7 4 LIB
Oxford CON 18 48 22 0 7 6 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 46 11 35 0 6 3 LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 29 40 14 0 16 2 CON
Perth—Wellington CON 28 43 17 0 8 4 CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 38 32 21 0 7 3 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 50 28 14 0 5 3 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 18 57 18 0 5 1 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 44 40 11 0 3 2 LEANS LIB
Sarnia—Lambton CON 21 46 25 0 4 5 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 37 29 27 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 56 18 13 0 3 10 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 53 28 16 0 2 2 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 57 18 17 0 5 3 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 53 33 11 0 2 2 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 60 20 14 0 3 3 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 61 19 13 0 4 3 LIB
Simcoe North CON 30 38 16 0 12 4 LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 30 42 13 0 12 3 CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 57 15 22 0 5 2 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 38 29 25 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 24 54 16 0 3 3 CON
Sudbury LIB 39 18 32 0 6 4 LEANS LIB
Thornhill CON 34 53 8 0 3 1 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 36 25 32 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 41 23 25 0 8 3 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 24 26 43 0 3 5 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 56 10 26 0 7 2 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 47 9 35 0 6 3 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 56 18 18 0 6 2 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 49 14 26 0 8 2 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 50 35 10 0 2 3 LIB
Waterloo LIB 52 15 18 0 12 3 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 27 46 11 0 13 3 CON
Whitby LIB 45 31 16 0 5 2 LIB
Willowdale LIB 48 34 12 0 3 3 LIB
Windsor West NDP 49 18 31 0 0 3 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 47 25 17 0 4 8 LIB
York Centre LIB 55 32 12 0 1 1 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 60 16 19 0 3 2 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 25 44 18 0 8 5 CON
Calculated Politics