Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: ONTARIO
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last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
37.3%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 41.4%
 Most likely vote total: 41.4%
Change since last election: ▼0.1% 45.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
27.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 30.6%
 Most likely vote total: 30.6%
Change since last election: ▼2.6% 33.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
16.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.4%
 Most likely vote total: 18.4%
Change since last election: ▲1.6% 20.2%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
5.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6%
 Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▼0.2% 6.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
3.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.6%
 Most likely vote total: 3.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.3% 3.9%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
62 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 77
Most likely seat total: 77
Change since last election: ▼2 87 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
24 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 37
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲1 47 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
2 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 6
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▲0 18 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | LIB | 59 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 4 | LIB |
| Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing | NDP | 23 | 25 | 44 | 0 | 5 | 4 | NDP |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | CON | 38 | 40 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Barrie—Innisfil | CON | 28 | 42 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 3 | CON |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | CON | 31 | 37 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Bay of Quinte | LIB | 38 | 34 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Beaches—East York | LIB | 56 | 13 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Brampton Centre | LIB | 46 | 24 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Brampton East | LIB | 47 | 21 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 2 | LIB |
| Brampton North | LIB | 53 | 24 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Brampton South | LIB | 48 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Brampton West | LIB | 52 | 23 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 3 | LIB |
| Brantford—Brant | CON | 38 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 8 | TOSS-UP |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CON | 29 | 44 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 4 | CON |
| Burlington | LIB | 51 | 29 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Cambridge | LIB | 38 | 27 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 5 | LIB |
| Carleton | CON | 29 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 2 | CON |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | CON | 30 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4 | CON |
| Davenport | LIB | 45 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Don Valley East | LIB | 61 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Don Valley North | LIB | 50 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Don Valley West | LIB | 60 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Dufferin—Caledon | CON | 31 | 35 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Durham | CON | 31 | 40 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | LIB | 55 | 29 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | CON | 21 | 48 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 4 | CON |
| Essex | CON | 18 | 41 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Etobicoke Centre | LIB | 51 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Etobicoke North | LIB | 61 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 4 | LIB |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | LIB | 54 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | CON | 34 | 37 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | LIB | 46 | 35 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 4 | LIB |
| Guelph | LIB | 39 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 27 | 4 | LIB |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | CON | 23 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 6 | CON |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | CON | 26 | 46 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 3 | CON |
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | 25 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 7 | 4 | NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | LIB | 38 | 24 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | 28 | 22 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 4 | NDP |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | LIB | 46 | 24 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 3 | LIB |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | CON | 38 | 38 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 4 | TOSS-UP |
| Humber River—Black Creek | LIB | 59 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Huron—Bruce | CON | 31 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| Kanata—Carleton | LIB | 42 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Kenora | CON | 32 | 32 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 3 | TOSS-UP |
| Kingston and the Islands | LIB | 47 | 16 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 4 | LIB |
| King—Vaughan | LIB | 44 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener Centre | LIB | 36 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 33 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | LIB | 39 | 31 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | LIB | 40 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | CON | 26 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 5 | CON |
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | CON | 23 | 46 | 18 | 0 | 11 | 3 | CON |
| Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CON | 25 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 3 | CON |
| London North Centre | LIB | 41 | 21 | 27 | 0 | 7 | 4 | LIB |
| London West | LIB | 42 | 25 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | 27 | 21 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 4 | NDP |
| Markham—Stouffville | LIB | 36 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 39 | LEANS OTH |
| Markham—Thornhill | LIB | 53 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Markham—Unionville | CON | 37 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| Milton | LIB | 56 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Mississauga Centre | LIB | 57 | 25 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | LIB |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | LIB | 52 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | LIB | 52 | 31 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | LIB | 48 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Malton | LIB | 57 | 23 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | LIB | 52 | 29 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Nepean | LIB | 45 | 31 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Newmarket—Aurora | LIB | 42 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Niagara Centre | LIB | 45 | 31 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Niagara Falls | CON | 33 | 34 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 12 | TOSS-UP |
| Niagara West | CON | 33 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 5 | LEANS CON |
| Nickel Belt | LIB | 36 | 18 | 37 | 0 | 5 | 3 | TOSS-UP |
| Nipissing—Timiskaming | LIB | 39 | 26 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 7 | LIB |
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | CON | 34 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Oakville | LIB | 46 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Oakville North—Burlington | LIB | 50 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Orléans | LIB | 53 | 26 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Oshawa | CON | 34 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| Ottawa Centre | LIB | 52 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 4 | LIB |
| Ottawa South | LIB | 52 | 22 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | LIB | 47 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 49 | 15 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 4 | LIB |
| Oxford | CON | 18 | 48 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 6 | CON |
| Parkdale—High Park | LIB | 46 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | CON | 29 | 40 | 14 | 0 | 16 | 2 | CON |
| Perth—Wellington | CON | 28 | 43 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 4 | CON |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | LIB | 38 | 32 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | LIB | 50 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | CON | 18 | 57 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 1 | CON |
| Richmond Hill | LIB | 44 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Sarnia—Lambton | CON | 21 | 46 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 5 | CON |
| Sault Ste. Marie | LIB | 37 | 29 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Scarborough Centre | LIB | 56 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | LIB |
| Scarborough North | LIB | 53 | 28 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Scarborough Southwest | LIB | 57 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | LIB | 53 | 33 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | LIB | 60 | 20 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | LIB | 61 | 19 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Simcoe North | CON | 30 | 38 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Simcoe—Grey | CON | 30 | 42 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 3 | CON |
| Spadina—Fort York | LIB | 57 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| St. Catharines | LIB | 38 | 29 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | CON | 24 | 54 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | CON |
| Sudbury | LIB | 39 | 18 | 32 | 0 | 6 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Thornhill | CON | 34 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | CON |
| Thunder Bay—Rainy River | LIB | 36 | 25 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 41 | 23 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Timmins—James Bay | NDP | 24 | 26 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 5 | NDP |
| Toronto Centre | LIB | 56 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Toronto—Danforth | LIB | 47 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | LIB | 56 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| University—Rosedale | LIB | 49 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | LIB | 50 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3 | LIB |
| Waterloo | LIB | 52 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 3 | LIB |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | CON | 27 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 3 | CON |
| Whitby | LIB | 45 | 31 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Willowdale | LIB | 48 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | LIB |
| Windsor West | NDP | 49 | 18 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | LIB |
| Windsor—Tecumseh | LIB | 47 | 25 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LIB |
| York Centre | LIB | 55 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | LIB |
| York South—Weston | LIB | 60 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| York—Simcoe | CON | 25 | 44 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 5 | CON |
