Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: ONTARIO
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REGION: ONTARIO
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Return to national projection Next Canadian federal election →
last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)
PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
---|---|
Liberal ![]() | 32.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 35.9% ![]() Most likely vote total: 35.9% Change since last election: ▼3.4% 39.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative ![]() | 29.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 32.6% ![]() Most likely vote total: 32.6% Change since last election: ▼2.3% 35.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP ![]() | 17.7% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 19.7% ![]() Most likely vote total: 19.7% Change since last election: ▲1.8% 21.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green ![]() | 4.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.5% ![]() Most likely vote total: 4.5% Change since last election: ▲2.3% 5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other ![]() | 6.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 7.2% ![]() Most likely vote total: 7.2% Change since last election: ▲1.5% 7.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
---|---|
Liberal ![]() | 54 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 72 ![]() Most likely seat total: 72 Change since last election: ▼6 76 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative ![]() | 33 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 38 ![]() Most likely seat total: 38 Change since last election: ▲1 55 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP ![]() | 5 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 10 ![]() Most likely seat total: 10 Change since last election: ▲5 20 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green ![]() | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 ![]() Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other ![]() | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 ![]() Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ajax | LIB | 53 | 25 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing | CON | 19 | 25 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 9 | NDP |
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | LIB | 52 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
Barrie—Innisfil | LIB | 25 | 47 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 9 | CON |
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | LIB | 28 | 43 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 9 | CON |
Bay of Quinte | LIB | 32 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 6 | CON |
Beaches—East York | LIB | 53 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
Brampton Centre | CON | 45 | 30 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
Brampton East | LIB | 51 | 27 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
Brampton North | CON | 52 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | LIB |
Brampton South | LIB | 48 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
Brampton West | NDP | 53 | 27 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
Brantford—Brant | LIB | 24 | 37 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 11 | CON |
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CON | 21 | 48 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 10 | CON |
Burlington | CON | 43 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
Cambridge | CON | 34 | 32 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
Carleton | LIB | 31 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | CON |
Chatham-Kent—Leamington | LIB | 25 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 17 | CON |
Davenport | LIB | 53 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
Don Valley East | LIB | 57 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
Don Valley North | LIB | 51 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
Don Valley West | LIB | 50 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
Dufferin—Caledon | CON | 26 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 9 | CON |
Durham | CON | 26 | 46 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 8 | CON |
Eglinton—Lawrence | LIB | 46 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
Elgin—Middlesex—London | LIB | 28 | 35 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 15 | LEANS CON |
Essex | CON | 13 | 40 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 12 | LEANS CON |
Etobicoke Centre | CON | 45 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 9 | LIB |
Etobicoke North | LIB | 57 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
Etobicoke—Lakeshore | LIB | 44 | 29 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
Flamborough—Glanbrook | LIB | 31 | 39 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 8 | CON |
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | LIB | 43 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LIB |
Guelph | CON | 38 | 21 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 7 | LIB |
Haldimand—Norfolk | CON | 24 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 13 | CON |
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | LIB | 20 | 50 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 9 | CON |
Hamilton Centre | CON | 21 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 8 | NDP |
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | CON | 34 | 26 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
Hamilton Mountain | LIB | 31 | 21 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LEANS NDP |
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | LIB | 40 | 27 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LIB |
Hastings—Lennox and Addington | LIB | 31 | 43 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | CON |
Humber River—Black Creek | CON | 57 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 6 | LIB |
Huron—Bruce | LIB | 23 | 50 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 10 | CON |
Kanata—Carleton | LIB | 36 | 33 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
Kenora | CON | 16 | 41 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 7 | CON |
Kingston and the Islands | CON | 38 | 21 | 31 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
King—Vaughan | NDP | 43 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
Kitchener Centre | LIB | 11 | 19 | 16 | 0 | 47 | 7 | GRN |
Kitchener South—Hespeler | LIB | 34 | 32 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
Kitchener—Conestoga | LIB | 35 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 8 | TOSS-UP |
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | CON | 18 | 46 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 13 | CON |
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | LIB | 22 | 47 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 8 | CON |
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CON | 22 | 48 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 7 | CON |
London North Centre | LIB | 36 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
London West | CON | 34 | 31 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
London—Fanshawe | LIB | 20 | 22 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 11 | NDP |
Markham—Stouffville | CON | 56 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | LIB |
Markham—Thornhill | GRN | 58 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
Markham—Unionville | LIB | 46 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 | LEANS LIB |
Milton | LIB | 48 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LIB |
Mississauga Centre | CON | 51 | 26 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
Mississauga East—Cooksville | CON | 47 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 9 | LIB |
Mississauga—Erin Mills | CON | 48 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
Mississauga—Lakeshore | LIB | 42 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
Mississauga—Malton | LIB | 49 | 29 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
Mississauga—Streetsville | NDP | 44 | 32 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
Nepean | LIB | 41 | 32 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
Newmarket—Aurora | LIB | 41 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
Niagara Centre | LIB | 34 | 30 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 11 | LEANS LIB |
Niagara Falls | LIB | 29 | 37 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 10 | CON |
Niagara West | LIB | 27 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 10 | CON |
Nickel Belt | LIB | 37 | 25 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 11 | LIB |
Nipissing—Timiskaming | LIB | 36 | 30 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
Northumberland—Peterborough South | LIB | 30 | 42 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 7 | CON |
Oakville | LIB | 45 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
Oakville North—Burlington | LIB | 44 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
Orléans | LIB | 48 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
Oshawa | LIB | 20 | 38 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 9 | CON |
Ottawa Centre | LIB | 34 | 21 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LEANS NDP |
Ottawa South | CON | 45 | 24 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
Ottawa West—Nepean | CON | 42 | 26 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 44 | 18 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 5 | LIB |
Oxford | LIB | 17 | 45 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 13 | CON |
Parkdale—High Park | CON | 38 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LEANS NDP |
Parry Sound—Muskoka | LIB | 17 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 9 | CON |
Perth—Wellington | LIB | 21 | 46 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 12 | CON |
Peterborough—Kawartha | LIB | 21 | 43 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 7 | CON |
Pickering—Uxbridge | CON | 45 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | LIB | 16 | 46 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 10 | CON |
Richmond Hill | LIB | 45 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
Sarnia—Lambton | LIB | 16 | 44 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 14 | CON |
Sault Ste. Marie | LIB | 34 | 35 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 6 | TOSS-UP |
Scarborough Centre | CON | 55 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
Scarborough North | LIB | 64 | 17 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
Scarborough Southwest | CON | 54 | 19 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
Scarborough—Agincourt | CON | 53 | 27 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
Scarborough—Guildwood | CON | 58 | 20 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
Scarborough—Rouge Park | LIB | 60 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
Simcoe North | CON | 26 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 10 | CON |
Simcoe—Grey | LIB | 23 | 46 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 9 | CON |
Spadina—Fort York | CON | 35 | 23 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 12 | LIB |
St. Catharines | LIB | 34 | 30 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | LIB | 20 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 9 | CON |
Sudbury | LIB | 31 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS NDP |
Thornhill | LIB | 32 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 6 | CON |
Thunder Bay—Rainy River | LIB | 34 | 27 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 36 | 22 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
Timmins—James Bay | LIB | 21 | 25 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 15 | NDP |
Toronto Centre | CON | 45 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 4 | LIB |
Toronto—Danforth | CON | 44 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
Toronto—St. Paul's | LIB | 46 | 23 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 4 | LIB |
University—Rosedale | LIB | 43 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 8 | 4 | LIB |
Vaughan—Woodbridge | CON | 43 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
Waterloo | LIB | 42 | 25 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 6 | LIB |
Wellington—Halton Hills | CON | 23 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 8 | CON |
Whitby | LIB | 41 | 33 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
Willowdale | LIB | 48 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
Windsor West | NDP | 24 | 18 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 10 | NDP |
Windsor—Tecumseh | LIB | 28 | 16 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 16 | NDP |
York Centre | LIB | 45 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
York South—Weston | LIB | 53 | 18 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LIB |
York—Simcoe | LIB | 25 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 9 | CON |