Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: ONTARIO


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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
35.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 35.9%
Change since last election: ▼3.4%
39.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 32.6%
Change since last election: ▼2.3%
35.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
17.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
19.7%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 19.7%
Change since last election: ▲1.8%
21.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
4.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 4.5%
Change since last election: ▲2.3%
5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
6.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 7.2%
Change since last election: ▲1.5%
7.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
54 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
72
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 72
Change since last election: ▼6
76 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
33 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
38
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 38
Change since last election: ▲1
55 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▲5
20 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Chart by Visualizer
Riding name:IncumbentLib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherProjected winner
AjaxLIB532516051LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—KapuskasingCON192542049NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillLIB523110016LIB
Barrie—InnisfilLIB254718019CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteLIB284319019CON
Bay of QuinteLIB324017056CON
Beaches—East YorkLIB531324055LIB
Brampton CentreCON453020013LIB
Brampton EastLIB512718014LIB
Brampton NorthCON522917011LIB
Brampton SouthLIB482917016LIB
Brampton WestNDP532715015LIB
Brantford—BrantLIB2437220511CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundCON2148150610CON
BurlingtonCON433513046LIB
CambridgeCON343219079LEANS LIB
CarletonLIB314913044CON
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonLIB2538170417CON
DavenportLIB53928055LIB
Don Valley EastLIB572214016LIB
Don Valley NorthLIB512813044LIB
Don Valley WestLIB503310043LIB
Dufferin—CaledonCON264512079CON
DurhamCON264620018CON
Eglinton—LawrenceLIB463411054LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—LondonLIB2835180515LEANS CON
EssexCON1340330312LEANS CON
Etobicoke CentreCON453212019LIB
Etobicoke NorthLIB572412016LIB
Etobicoke—LakeshoreLIB442916046LIB
Flamborough—GlanbrookLIB313918058CON
Glengarry—Prescott—RussellLIB433112049LIB
GuelphCON3821230117LIB
Haldimand—NorfolkCON2447150113CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockLIB205016059CON
Hamilton CentreCON211353058NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekCON342627049LEANS LIB
Hamilton MountainLIB312135049LEANS NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasLIB402722056LIB
Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonLIB314313049CON
Humber River—Black CreekCON571619036LIB
Huron—BruceLIB2350160110CON
Kanata—CarletonLIB363322054LEANS LIB
KenoraCON164132037CON
Kingston and the IslandsCON382131055LEANS LIB
King—VaughanNDP43417035LEANS LIB
Kitchener CentreLIB1119160477GRN
Kitchener South—HespelerLIB343218069LEANS LIB
Kitchener—ConestogaLIB353613078TOSS-UP
Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexCON1846200413CON
Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonLIB224718058CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesCON224816077CON
London North CentreLIB362429056LEANS LIB
London WestCON343127017LEANS LIB
London—FanshaweLIB2022460111NDP
Markham—StouffvilleCON562813030LIB
Markham—ThornhillGRN582410043LIB
Markham—UnionvilleLIB46398060LEANS LIB
MiltonLIB483110056LIB
Mississauga CentreCON512613046LIB
Mississauga East—CooksvilleCON473112019LIB
Mississauga—Erin MillsCON483212045LIB
Mississauga—LakeshoreLIB423612056LEANS LIB
Mississauga—MaltonLIB492916042LIB
Mississauga—StreetsvilleNDP443214045LIB
NepeanLIB413219044LIB
Newmarket—AuroraLIB413613046LEANS LIB
Niagara CentreLIB3430210411LEANS LIB
Niagara FallsLIB2937200410CON
Niagara WestLIB2743140510CON
Nickel BeltLIB3725230411LIB
Nipissing—TimiskamingLIB363024019LEANS LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough SouthLIB304216057CON
OakvilleLIB454011041LEANS LIB
Oakville North—BurlingtonLIB443612045LIB
OrléansLIB482717044LIB
OshawaLIB203830049CON
Ottawa CentreLIB342136054LEANS NDP
Ottawa SouthCON452421055LIB
Ottawa West—NepeanCON422621055LIB
Ottawa—VanierLIB441826065LIB
OxfordLIB1745190513CON
Parkdale—High ParkCON381142045LEANS NDP
Parry Sound—MuskokaLIB1745180109CON
Perth—WellingtonLIB2146190112CON
Peterborough—KawarthaLIB214324057CON
Pickering—UxbridgeCON453415015LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokeLIB1646230410CON
Richmond HillLIB453811016LIB
Sarnia—LambtonLIB1644230414CON
Sault Ste. MarieLIB343523016TOSS-UP
Scarborough CentreCON552315016LIB
Scarborough NorthLIB641713015LIB
Scarborough SouthwestCON541918054LIB
Scarborough—AgincourtCON532712044LIB
Scarborough—GuildwoodCON582016015LIB
Scarborough—Rouge ParkLIB602015014LIB
Simcoe NorthCON2640180610CON
Simcoe—GreyLIB234615079CON
Spadina—Fort YorkCON3523240612LIB
St. CatharinesLIB343024048LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryLIB205412059CON
SudburyLIB312432048LEANS NDP
ThornhillLIB32518046CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverLIB342728038LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthLIB362230048LEANS LIB
Timmins—James BayLIB2125370115NDP
Toronto CentreCON4510280134LIB
Toronto—DanforthCON441136045LIB
Toronto—St. Paul'sLIB462319094LIB
University—RosedaleLIB431828084LIB
Vaughan—WoodbridgeCON43389037LEANS LIB
WaterlooLIB422521066LIB
Wellington—Halton HillsCON235012078CON
WhitbyLIB413316046LIB
WillowdaleLIB483212044LIB
Windsor WestNDP2418470110NDP
Windsor—TecumsehLIB2816370316NDP
York CentreLIB453712016LIB
York South—WestonLIB531819056LIB
York—SimcoeLIB254916019CON
Calculated Politics