Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: ONTARIO


View other regions in this projection all regions →
Return to national projection Next Canadian federal election →

last updated: Wednesday, January 12, 2022 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
33% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
36.7%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 36.7%
Change since last election: ▼2.6%
40.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
26.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
29.1%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 29.1%
Change since last election: ▼5.8%
32% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
20.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
22.6%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 22.6%
Change since last election: ▲4.7%
24.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
1.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.2%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 2.2%
Change since last election: ▲0%
2.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
8.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
9.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 9.5%
Change since last election: ▲3.8%
10.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
58 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
74
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 74
Change since last election: ▼4
82 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
35
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 35
Change since last election: ▼2
45 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
8 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
11
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▲6
25 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name:IncumbentLib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherProjected winner
AjaxLIB552219032LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—KapuskasingCON1922450212NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillLIB522712009LIB
Barrie—InnisfilLIB2642210012CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteLIB2839220011CON
Bay of QuinteLIB333620029LEANS CON
Beaches—East YorkLIB531127037LIB
Brampton CentreCON462623005LIB
Brampton EastLIB512320006LIB
Brampton NorthCON532620002LIB
Brampton SouthLIB482519008LIB
Brampton WestNDP532317007LIB
Brantford—BrantLIB2534250314CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundCON2244180313CON
BurlingtonCON443115028LIB
CambridgeCON3528220311LEANS LIB
CarletonLIB324516026CON
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonLIB2534190121CON
DavenportLIB53731027LIB
Don Valley EastLIB571817008LIB
Don Valley NorthLIB522515026LIB
Don Valley WestLIB513012025LIB
Dufferin—CaledonCON2742150412CON
DurhamCON2741230010CON
Eglinton—LawrenceLIB473114036LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—LondonLIB2831210218LEANS CON
EssexCON1335360115TOSS-UP
Etobicoke CentreCON4628140012LIB
Etobicoke NorthLIB572014009LIB
Etobicoke—LakeshoreLIB452618028LIB
Flamborough—GlanbrookLIB3136210210LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—RussellLIB4328150212LIB
GuelphCON391826079LIB
Haldimand—NorfolkCON2442180016CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockLIB2146190212CON
Hamilton CentreCON219570210NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekCON3423300211LEANS LIB
Hamilton MountainLIB3118380211NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasLIB412325038LIB
Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonLIB3239150212CON
Humber River—Black CreekCON571222018LIB
Huron—BruceLIB2345190012CON
Kanata—CarletonLIB373025035LIB
KenoraCON1737360110TOSS-UP
Kingston and the IslandsCON381834026LEANS LIB
King—VaughanNDP45389017LEANS LIB
Kitchener CentreLIB13202103511GRN
Kitchener South—HespelerLIB3529210312LEANS LIB
Kitchener—ConestogaLIB3732160411LEANS LIB
Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexCON1842230216CON
Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonLIB2344210311CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesCON2245190410CON
London North CentreLIB362133028LEANS LIB
London WestCON3426300010LEANS LIB
London—FanshaweLIB2018490013NDP
Markham—StouffvilleCON582515010LIB
Markham—ThornhillGRN592213025LIB
Markham—UnionvilleLIB483711031LIB
MiltonLIB492813028LIB
Mississauga CentreCON522316028LIB
Mississauga East—CooksvilleCON4727140012LIB
Mississauga—Erin MillsCON492814027LIB
Mississauga—LakeshoreLIB433214028LIB
Mississauga—MaltonLIB502519024LIB
Mississauga—StreetsvilleNDP452817027LIB
NepeanLIB422822026LIB
Newmarket—AuroraLIB423316028LIB
Niagara CentreLIB3527230214LIB
Niagara FallsLIB3033230212LEANS CON
Niagara WestLIB2840170313CON
Nickel BeltLIB3721260214LIB
Nipissing—TimiskamingLIB3626260011LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough SouthLIB313919029CON
OakvilleLIB463613022LIB
Oakville North—BurlingtonLIB453214017LIB
OrléansLIB492420026LIB
OshawaLIB2034330111LEANS CON
Ottawa CentreLIB351840036LEANS NDP
Ottawa SouthCON462124027LIB
Ottawa West—NepeanCON432324037LIB
Ottawa—VanierLIB451530037LIB
OxfordLIB1841220316CON
Parkdale—High ParkCON39846026LEANS NDP
Parry Sound—MuskokaLIB1942220612CON
Perth—WellingtonLIB2242220015CON
Peterborough—KawarthaLIB223928029CON
Pickering—UxbridgeCON453117007LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokeLIB1742260213CON
Richmond HillLIB463313008LIB
Sarnia—LambtonLIB1739250117CON
Sault Ste. MarieLIB353126008LEANS LIB
Scarborough CentreCON552018008LIB
Scarborough NorthLIB651315007LIB
Scarborough SouthwestCON541621026LIB
Scarborough—AgincourtCON552414026LIB
Scarborough—GuildwoodCON581618007LIB
Scarborough—Rouge ParkLIB601717006LIB
Simcoe NorthCON2737200313CON
Simcoe—GreyLIB2542180412CON
Spadina—Fort YorkCON3620270315LIB
St. CatharinesLIB3427270211LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryLIB2150150212CON
SudburyLIB3121350210LEANS NDP
ThornhillLIB344710028CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverLIB3423310110LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthLIB3618330210LEANS LIB
Timmins—James BayLIB2122400018NDP
Toronto CentreCON47732086LIB
Toronto—DanforthCON44839026LEANS LIB
Toronto—St. Paul'sLIB472022065LIB
University—RosedaleLIB441532046LIB
Vaughan—WoodbridgeCON4435110110LIB
WaterlooLIB432224038LIB
Wellington—Halton HillsCON2447150410CON
WhitbyLIB423019018LIB
WillowdaleLIB492915026LIB
Windsor WestNDP2415490012NDP
Windsor—TecumsehLIB2812390120NDP
York CentreLIB453214008LIB
York South—WestonLIB531521028LIB
York—SimcoeLIB2545180012CON
Calculated Politics