Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: ONTARIO
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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 32.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 35.9%  Most likely vote total: 35.9% Change since last election: ▼3.4% 39.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 29.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 32.6%  Most likely vote total: 32.6% Change since last election: ▼2.3% 35.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 17.7% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 19.7%  Most likely vote total: 19.7% Change since last election: ▲1.8% 21.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 4.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.5%  Most likely vote total: 4.5% Change since last election: ▲2.3% 5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 6.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 7.2%  Most likely vote total: 7.2% Change since last election: ▲1.5% 7.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 54 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 72 Most likely seat total: 72 Change since last election: ▼6 76 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 33 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 38 Most likely seat total: 38 Change since last election: ▲1 55 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 5 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 10 Most likely seat total: 10 Change since last election: ▲5 20 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | LIB | 53 | 25 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing | CON | 19 | 25 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 9 | NDP |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | LIB | 52 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
| Barrie—Innisfil | LIB | 25 | 47 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 9 | CON |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | LIB | 28 | 43 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 9 | CON |
| Bay of Quinte | LIB | 32 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 6 | CON |
| Beaches—East York | LIB | 53 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
| Brampton Centre | CON | 45 | 30 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
| Brampton East | LIB | 51 | 27 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
| Brampton North | CON | 52 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton South | LIB | 48 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
| Brampton West | NDP | 53 | 27 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
| Brantford—Brant | LIB | 24 | 37 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 11 | CON |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CON | 21 | 48 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 10 | CON |
| Burlington | CON | 43 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Cambridge | CON | 34 | 32 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Carleton | LIB | 31 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | CON |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | LIB | 25 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 17 | CON |
| Davenport | LIB | 53 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
| Don Valley East | LIB | 57 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
| Don Valley North | LIB | 51 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Don Valley West | LIB | 50 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Dufferin—Caledon | CON | 26 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 9 | CON |
| Durham | CON | 26 | 46 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 8 | CON |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | LIB | 46 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | LIB | 28 | 35 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 15 | LEANS CON |
| Essex | CON | 13 | 40 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 12 | LEANS CON |
| Etobicoke Centre | CON | 45 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 9 | LIB |
| Etobicoke North | LIB | 57 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | LIB | 44 | 29 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | LIB | 31 | 39 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 8 | CON |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | LIB | 43 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LIB |
| Guelph | CON | 38 | 21 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 7 | LIB |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | CON | 24 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 13 | CON |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | LIB | 20 | 50 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 9 | CON |
| Hamilton Centre | CON | 21 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 8 | NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | CON | 34 | 26 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Hamilton Mountain | LIB | 31 | 21 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LEANS NDP |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | LIB | 40 | 27 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LIB |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | LIB | 31 | 43 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | CON |
| Humber River—Black Creek | CON | 57 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 6 | LIB |
| Huron—Bruce | LIB | 23 | 50 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 10 | CON |
| Kanata—Carleton | LIB | 36 | 33 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Kenora | CON | 16 | 41 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 7 | CON |
| Kingston and the Islands | CON | 38 | 21 | 31 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
| King—Vaughan | NDP | 43 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener Centre | LIB | 11 | 19 | 16 | 0 | 47 | 7 | GRN |
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | LIB | 34 | 32 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | LIB | 35 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 8 | TOSS-UP |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | CON | 18 | 46 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 13 | CON |
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | LIB | 22 | 47 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 8 | CON |
| Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CON | 22 | 48 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 7 | CON |
| London North Centre | LIB | 36 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| London West | CON | 34 | 31 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| London—Fanshawe | LIB | 20 | 22 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 11 | NDP |
| Markham—Stouffville | CON | 56 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | LIB |
| Markham—Thornhill | GRN | 58 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Markham—Unionville | LIB | 46 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 | LEANS LIB |
| Milton | LIB | 48 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LIB |
| Mississauga Centre | CON | 51 | 26 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | CON | 47 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 9 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | CON | 48 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | LIB | 42 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Mississauga—Malton | LIB | 49 | 29 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | NDP | 44 | 32 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
| Nepean | LIB | 41 | 32 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Newmarket—Aurora | LIB | 41 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Niagara Centre | LIB | 34 | 30 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 11 | LEANS LIB |
| Niagara Falls | LIB | 29 | 37 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 10 | CON |
| Niagara West | LIB | 27 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 10 | CON |
| Nickel Belt | LIB | 37 | 25 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 11 | LIB |
| Nipissing—Timiskaming | LIB | 36 | 30 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | LIB | 30 | 42 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 7 | CON |
| Oakville | LIB | 45 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Oakville North—Burlington | LIB | 44 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
| Orléans | LIB | 48 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Oshawa | LIB | 20 | 38 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 9 | CON |
| Ottawa Centre | LIB | 34 | 21 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LEANS NDP |
| Ottawa South | CON | 45 | 24 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | CON | 42 | 26 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
| Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 44 | 18 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 5 | LIB |
| Oxford | LIB | 17 | 45 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 13 | CON |
| Parkdale—High Park | CON | 38 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LEANS NDP |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | LIB | 17 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 9 | CON |
| Perth—Wellington | LIB | 21 | 46 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 12 | CON |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | LIB | 21 | 43 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 7 | CON |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | CON | 45 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | LIB | 16 | 46 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 10 | CON |
| Richmond Hill | LIB | 45 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
| Sarnia—Lambton | LIB | 16 | 44 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 14 | CON |
| Sault Ste. Marie | LIB | 34 | 35 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 6 | TOSS-UP |
| Scarborough Centre | CON | 55 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
| Scarborough North | LIB | 64 | 17 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
| Scarborough Southwest | CON | 54 | 19 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | CON | 53 | 27 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | CON | 58 | 20 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | LIB | 60 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
| Simcoe North | CON | 26 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 10 | CON |
| Simcoe—Grey | LIB | 23 | 46 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 9 | CON |
| Spadina—Fort York | CON | 35 | 23 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 12 | LIB |
| St. Catharines | LIB | 34 | 30 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | LIB | 20 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 9 | CON |
| Sudbury | LIB | 31 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS NDP |
| Thornhill | LIB | 32 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 6 | CON |
| Thunder Bay—Rainy River | LIB | 34 | 27 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 36 | 22 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Timmins—James Bay | LIB | 21 | 25 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 15 | NDP |
| Toronto Centre | CON | 45 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 4 | LIB |
| Toronto—Danforth | CON | 44 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 5 | LIB |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | LIB | 46 | 23 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 4 | LIB |
| University—Rosedale | LIB | 43 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 8 | 4 | LIB |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | CON | 43 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| Waterloo | LIB | 42 | 25 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 6 | LIB |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | CON | 23 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 8 | CON |
| Whitby | LIB | 41 | 33 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Willowdale | LIB | 48 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | LIB |
| Windsor West | NDP | 24 | 18 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 10 | NDP |
| Windsor—Tecumseh | LIB | 28 | 16 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 16 | NDP |
| York Centre | LIB | 45 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | LIB |
| York South—Weston | LIB | 53 | 18 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LIB |
| York—Simcoe | LIB | 25 | 49 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 9 | CON |
