Next Canadian federal election projection

REGION: ONTARIO


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last updated: Monday, September 20, 2021 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
35% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
38.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 38.9%
Change since last election: ▼2.6%
42.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.6%
34.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.7%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.7%
Change since last election: ▲1.9%
20.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
2.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.3%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 3.3%
Change since last election: ▼2.9%
3.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
6.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 7.6%
Change since last election: ▲5.3%
8.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
57 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
77
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 77
Change since last election: ▼2
85 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
36
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 36
Change since last election: ▲0
54 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
4 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▲2
21 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name:IncumbentLib.Con.NDPBlocGreenOtherProjected winner
AjaxLIB572613022LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—KapuskasingNDP202543038NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillCON483510007LIB
Barrie—InnisfilCON284025007CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteCON303925006LEANS CON
Bay of QuinteLIB363618037TOSS-UP
Beaches—East YorkLIB61027057LIB
Brampton CentreLIB462422007LIB
Brampton EastLIB442030006LIB
Brampton NorthLIB502821002LIB
Brampton SouthLIB462721007LIB
Brampton WestLIB482321007LIB
Brantford—BrantCON2839190410CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundCON274314069CON
BurlingtonLIB463311045LIB
CambridgeLIB3528210411LEANS LIB
CarletonCON334811036CON
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonCON294515029CON
DavenportLIB54829037LIB
Don Valley EastLIB572315005LIB
Don Valley NorthLIB483511025LIB
Don Valley WestLIB51329036LIB
Dufferin—CaledonCON314112089CON
DurhamCON303825007LEANS CON
Eglinton—LawrenceLIB513310025LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—LondonCON3236190310LEANS CON
EssexCON154135017LEANS CON
Etobicoke CentreLIB513211006LIB
Etobicoke NorthLIB581914009LIB
Etobicoke—LakeshoreLIB492813046LIB
Flamborough—GlanbrookCON323918037LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—RussellLIB423612029LEANS LIB
GuelphLIB4018130219LIB
Haldimand—NorfolkCON2342240012CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockCON235016066CON
Hamilton CentreNDP2413490410NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekLIB342530048LEANS LIB
Hamilton MountainNDP282436048LEANS NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasLIB442420057LIB
Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonCON334214037LEANS CON
Humber River—Black CreekLIB571521007LIB
Huron—BruceCON284816007CON
Kanata—CarletonLIB403318046LEANS LIB
KenoraCON273132037TOSS-UP
Kingston and the IslandsLIB431924068LIB
King—VaughanLIB46407026LEANS LIB
Kitchener CentreLIB1129260268LEANS CON
Kitchener South—HespelerLIB393113088LEANS LIB
Kitchener—ConestogaLIB383612077LEANS LIB
Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexCON2249170310CON
Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonCON214916077CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesCON225015067CON
London North CentreLIB422223059LIB
London WestLIB412428008LIB
London—FanshaweNDP242345007NDP
Markham—StouffvilleLIB553012012LIB
Markham—ThornhillLIB49359017LIB
Markham—UnionvilleCON374710006CON
MiltonLIB50338036LIB
Mississauga CentreLIB532911017LIB
Mississauga East—CooksvilleLIB503212006LIB
Mississauga—Erin MillsLIB493310026LIB
Mississauga—LakeshoreLIB48359036LIB
Mississauga—MaltonLIB552314017LIB
Mississauga—StreetsvilleLIB483311026LIB
NepeanLIB433315046LIB
Newmarket—AuroraLIB383812049TOSS-UP
Niagara CentreLIB373121038LEANS LIB
Niagara FallsCON2832200317LEANS CON
Niagara WestCON284513049CON
Nickel BeltLIB412028038LIB
Nipissing—TimiskamingLIB3626260013LEANS LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough SouthCON343914058LEANS CON
OakvilleLIB45369047LEANS LIB
Oakville North—BurlingtonLIB463810025LEANS LIB
OrléansLIB512713026LIB
OshawaCON213929038LEANS CON
Ottawa CentreLIB401828058LIB
Ottawa SouthLIB502218037LIB
Ottawa West—NepeanLIB432720047LIB
Ottawa—VanierLIB471623049LIB
OxfordCON1547210512CON
Parkdale—High ParkLIB471231046LIB
Parry Sound—MuskokaCON2840140116CON
Perth—WellingtonCON254521008CON
Peterborough—KawarthaLIB273922058CON
Pickering—UxbridgeLIB462918007LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokeCON1648140319CON
Richmond HillLIB423913006LEANS LIB
Sarnia—LambtonCON1849220210CON
Sault Ste. MarieLIB363027007LEANS LIB
Scarborough CentreLIB4721140017LIB
Scarborough NorthLIB532814005LIB
Scarborough SouthwestLIB551818037LIB
Scarborough—AgincourtLIB483710005LIB
Scarborough—GuildwoodLIB572114008LIB
Scarborough—Rouge ParkLIB572016007LIB
Simcoe NorthCON294214078CON
Simcoe—GreyCON294113088CON
Spadina—Fort YorkLIB5020110316LIB
St. CatharinesLIB373023046LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryCON215415028CON
SudburyLIB401832009LEANS LIB
ThornhillCON33528015CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverLIB352928026LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthLIB402423058LIB
Timmins—James BayNDP2125440010NDP
Toronto CentreLIB731110115LIB
Toronto—DanforthLIB44936047LEANS LIB
Toronto—St. Paul'sLIB522117046LIB
University—RosedaleLIB481524057LIB
Vaughan—WoodbridgeLIB46369018LEANS LIB
WaterlooLIB482315077LIB
Wellington—Halton HillsCON264511098CON
WhitbyLIB413515035LEANS LIB
WillowdaleLIB463511027LIB
Windsor WestNDP311844007NDP
Windsor—TecumsehLIB3118330216LEANS NDP
York CentreLIB493314004LIB
York South—WestonLIB561819026LIB
York—SimcoeCON2344210012CON
Calculated Politics