Next Canadian federal election projection

last updated: Wednesday, January 12, 2022 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Vote projections

PARTY	VOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal	33% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 36.7% Most likely vote total: 36.7% Change since last election: ▼2.6% 40.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	26.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 29.1% Most likely vote total: 29.1% Change since last election: ▼5.8% 32% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	20.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 22.6% Most likely vote total: 22.6% Change since last election: ▲4.7% 24.8% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	1.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 2.2% Most likely vote total: 2.2% Change since last election: ▲0% 2.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	8.6% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 9.5% Most likely vote total: 9.5% Change since last election: ▲3.8% 10.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval

Seat projections

PARTY	SEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal	58 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 74 Most likely seat total: 74 Change since last election: ▼4 82 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	24 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 35 Most likely seat total: 35 Change since last election: ▼2 45 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	8 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 11 Most likely seat total: 11 Change since last election: ▲6 25 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding-by-riding breakdown

Riding name:	Incumbent	Lib.	Con.	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Ajax	LIB	55	22	19	3	2	LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	CON	19	22	45	2	12	NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	LIB	52	27	12	0	9	LIB
Barrie—Innisfil	LIB	26	42	21	0	12	CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	LIB	28	39	22	0	11	CON
Bay of Quinte	LIB	33	36	20	2	9	LEANS CON
Beaches—East York	LIB	53	11	27	3	7	LIB
Brampton Centre	CON	46	26	23	0	5	LIB
Brampton East	LIB	51	23	20	0	6	LIB
Brampton North	CON	53	26	20	0	2	LIB
Brampton South	LIB	48	25	19	0	8	LIB
Brampton West	NDP	53	23	17	0	7	LIB
Brantford—Brant	LIB	25	34	25	3	14	CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	CON	22	44	18	3	13	CON
Burlington	CON	44	31	15	2	8	LIB
Cambridge	CON	35	28	22	3	11	LEANS LIB
Carleton	LIB	32	45	16	2	6	CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington	LIB	25	34	19	1	21	CON
Davenport	LIB	53	7	31	2	7	LIB
Don Valley East	LIB	57	18	17	0	8	LIB
Don Valley North	LIB	52	25	15	2	6	LIB
Don Valley West	LIB	51	30	12	2	5	LIB
Dufferin—Caledon	CON	27	42	15	4	12	CON
Durham	CON	27	41	23	0	10	CON
Eglinton—Lawrence	LIB	47	31	14	3	6	LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London	LIB	28	31	21	2	18	LEANS CON
Essex	CON	13	35	36	1	15	TOSS-UP
Etobicoke Centre	CON	46	28	14	0	12	LIB
Etobicoke North	LIB	57	20	14	0	9	LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	LIB	45	26	18	2	8	LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook	LIB	31	36	21	2	10	LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	LIB	43	28	15	2	12	LIB
Guelph	CON	39	18	26	7	9	LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk	CON	24	42	18	0	16	CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	LIB	21	46	19	2	12	CON
Hamilton Centre	CON	21	9	57	2	10	NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	CON	34	23	30	2	11	LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain	LIB	31	18	38	2	11	NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	LIB	41	23	25	3	8	LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington	LIB	32	39	15	2	12	CON
Humber River—Black Creek	CON	57	12	22	1	8	LIB
Huron—Bruce	LIB	23	45	19	0	12	CON
Kanata—Carleton	LIB	37	30	25	3	5	LIB
Kenora	CON	17	37	36	1	10	TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands	CON	38	18	34	2	6	LEANS LIB
King—Vaughan	NDP	45	38	9	1	7	LEANS LIB
Kitchener Centre	LIB	13	20	21	35	11	GRN
Kitchener South—Hespeler	LIB	35	29	21	3	12	LEANS LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga	LIB	37	32	16	4	11	LEANS LIB
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	CON	18	42	23	2	16	CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston	LIB	23	44	21	3	11	CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes	CON	22	45	19	4	10	CON
London North Centre	LIB	36	21	33	2	8	LEANS LIB
London West	CON	34	26	30	0	10	LEANS LIB
London—Fanshawe	LIB	20	18	49	0	13	NDP
Markham—Stouffville	CON	58	25	15	1	0	LIB
Markham—Thornhill	GRN	59	22	13	2	5	LIB
Markham—Unionville	LIB	48	37	11	3	1	LIB
Milton	LIB	49	28	13	2	8	LIB
Mississauga Centre	CON	52	23	16	2	8	LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville	CON	47	27	14	0	12	LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills	CON	49	28	14	2	7	LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore	LIB	43	32	14	2	8	LIB
Mississauga—Malton	LIB	50	25	19	2	4	LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville	NDP	45	28	17	2	7	LIB
Nepean	LIB	42	28	22	2	6	LIB
Newmarket—Aurora	LIB	42	33	16	2	8	LIB
Niagara Centre	LIB	35	27	23	2	14	LIB
Niagara Falls	LIB	30	33	23	2	12	LEANS CON
Niagara West	LIB	28	40	17	3	13	CON
Nickel Belt	LIB	37	21	26	2	14	LIB
Nipissing—Timiskaming	LIB	36	26	26	0	11	LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South	LIB	31	39	19	2	9	CON
Oakville	LIB	46	36	13	2	2	LIB
Oakville North—Burlington	LIB	45	32	14	1	7	LIB
Orléans	LIB	49	24	20	2	6	LIB
Oshawa	LIB	20	34	33	1	11	LEANS CON
Ottawa Centre	LIB	35	18	40	3	6	LEANS NDP
Ottawa South	CON	46	21	24	2	7	LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean	CON	43	23	24	3	7	LIB
Ottawa—Vanier	LIB	45	15	30	3	7	LIB
Oxford	LIB	18	41	22	3	16	CON
Parkdale—High Park	CON	39	8	46	2	6	LEANS NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka	LIB	19	42	22	6	12	CON
Perth—Wellington	LIB	22	42	22	0	15	CON
Peterborough—Kawartha	LIB	22	39	28	2	9	CON
Pickering—Uxbridge	CON	45	31	17	0	7	LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	LIB	17	42	26	2	13	CON
Richmond Hill	LIB	46	33	13	0	8	LIB
Sarnia—Lambton	LIB	17	39	25	1	17	CON
Sault Ste. Marie	LIB	35	31	26	0	8	LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre	CON	55	20	18	0	8	LIB
Scarborough North	LIB	65	13	15	0	7	LIB
Scarborough Southwest	CON	54	16	21	2	6	LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt	CON	55	24	14	2	6	LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood	CON	58	16	18	0	7	LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park	LIB	60	17	17	0	6	LIB
Simcoe North	CON	27	37	20	3	13	CON
Simcoe—Grey	LIB	25	42	18	4	12	CON
Spadina—Fort York	CON	36	20	27	3	15	LIB
St. Catharines	LIB	34	27	27	2	11	LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	LIB	21	50	15	2	12	CON
Sudbury	LIB	31	21	35	2	10	LEANS NDP
Thornhill	LIB	34	47	10	2	8	CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	LIB	34	23	31	1	10	LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North	LIB	36	18	33	2	10	LEANS LIB
Timmins—James Bay	LIB	21	22	40	0	18	NDP
Toronto Centre	CON	47	7	32	8	6	LIB
Toronto—Danforth	CON	44	8	39	2	6	LEANS LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's	LIB	47	20	22	6	5	LIB
University—Rosedale	LIB	44	15	32	4	6	LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge	CON	44	35	11	1	10	LIB
Waterloo	LIB	43	22	24	3	8	LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills	CON	24	47	15	4	10	CON
Whitby	LIB	42	30	19	1	8	LIB
Willowdale	LIB	49	29	15	2	6	LIB
Windsor West	NDP	24	15	49	0	12	NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh	LIB	28	12	39	1	20	NDP
York Centre	LIB	45	32	14	0	8	LIB
York South—Weston	LIB	53	15	21	2	8	LIB
York—Simcoe	LIB	25	45	18	0	12	CON