Next Canadian federal election projection

last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTY	VOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal	30.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 34.2% Most likely vote total: 34.2% Change since last election: ▼1.3% 37.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	30.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 33.9% Most likely vote total: 33.9% Change since last election: ▲13.5% 37.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	18.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 21% Most likely vote total: 21% Change since last election: ▼9.3% 23.1% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	3.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.3% Most likely vote total: 4.3% Change since last election: ▲1.4% 4.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	5.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.6% Most likely vote total: 6.6% Change since last election: ▼4.3% 7.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval

PARTY	SEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▼1 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲1 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval