Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: British Columbia
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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 22.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 24.8%  Most likely vote total: 24.8% Change since last election: ▼2.1% 27.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 30% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 33.4%  Most likely vote total: 33.4% Change since last election: ▲0.3% 36.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 25.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 28.8%  Most likely vote total: 28.8% Change since last election: ▼0.5% 31.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 7% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 7.7%  Most likely vote total: 7.7% Change since last election: ▲2.3% 8.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 4.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5.3%  Most likely vote total: 5.3% Change since last election: ▲0% 5.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 5 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 12 Most likely seat total: 12 Change since last election: ▼3 16 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 12 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 17 Most likely seat total: 17 Change since last election: ▲4 25 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 7 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 11 Most likely seat total: 11 Change since last election: ▼2 18 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2 Most likely seat total: 2 Change since last election: ▲1 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford | LIB | 23 | 47 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 8 | CON |
| Burnaby North—Seymour | LIB | 37 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Burnaby South | LIB | 29 | 22 | 41 | 0 | 5 | 4 | NDP |
| Cariboo—Prince George | NDP | 15 | 52 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 8 | CON |
| Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola | LIB | 20 | 47 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 8 | CON |
| Chilliwack—Hope | NDP | 16 | 45 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 8 | CON |
| Cloverdale—Langley City | LIB | 34 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | CON |
| Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | LIB | 38 | 30 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
| Courtenay—Alberni | NDP | 12 | 32 | 43 | 0 | 8 | 5 | NDP |
| Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | LIB | 15 | 27 | 43 | 0 | 8 | 6 | NDP |
| Delta | CON | 30 | 42 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 4 | CON |
| Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | CON | 19 | 20 | 44 | 0 | 12 | 5 | NDP |
| Fleetwood—Port Kells | NDP | 45 | 30 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo | CON | 17 | 44 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 6 | CON |
| Kelowna—Lake Country | NDP | 26 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 7 | CON |
| Kootenay—Columbia | CON | 8 | 41 | 37 | 0 | 6 | 7 | LEANS CON |
| Langley—Aldergrove | CON | 24 | 46 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 5 | CON |
| Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon | CON | 23 | 44 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 7 | CON |
| Nanaimo—Ladysmith | LIB | 12 | 26 | 27 | 0 | 31 | 5 | LEANS GRN |
| New Westminster—Burnaby | CON | 23 | 18 | 49 | 0 | 6 | 4 | NDP |
| North Island—Powell River | NDP | 12 | 33 | 41 | 0 | 9 | 5 | NDP |
| North Okanagan—Shuswap | LIB | 17 | 46 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 10 | CON |
| North Vancouver | LIB | 44 | 27 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | LIB | 24 | 38 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 7 | CON |
| Port Moody—Coquitlam | LIB | 30 | 34 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies | LIB | 8 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 14 | CON |
| Richmond Centre | LIB | 37 | 36 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Saanich—Gulf Islands | CON | 15 | 20 | 16 | 0 | 46 | 3 | GRN |
| Skeena—Bulkley Valley | LIB | 7 | 36 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 10 | LEANS NDP |
| South Okanagan—West Kootenay | CON | 11 | 34 | 42 | 0 | 6 | 7 | NDP |
| South Surrey—White Rock | LIB | 38 | 42 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Steveston—Richmond East | CON | 41 | 33 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Surrey Centre | LIB | 35 | 24 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Surrey—Newton | CON | 54 | 16 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
| Vancouver Centre | LIB | 40 | 20 | 30 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Vancouver East | LIB | 18 | 9 | 57 | 0 | 11 | 5 | NDP |
| Vancouver Granville | CON | 33 | 30 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | TOSS-UP |
| Vancouver Kingsway | LIB | 26 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 6 | 3 | NDP |
| Vancouver Quadra | LIB | 43 | 28 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LIB |
| Vancouver South | LIB | 50 | 21 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
| Victoria | LIB | 25 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 15 | 4 | NDP |
| West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | LIB | 23 | 49 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 4 | CON |
