Next Canadian federal election projection
REGION: Atlantic Canada
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last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  | 41.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 45.8%  Most likely vote total: 45.8% Change since last election: ▲2.1% 50.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  | 24.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 27.6%  Most likely vote total: 27.6% Change since last election: ▼4% 30.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  | 17.6% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 19.5%  Most likely vote total: 19.5% Change since last election: ▲2.6% 21.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  | 1.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 2%  Most likely vote total: 2% Change since last election: ▼1.1% 2.2% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  | 4.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5%  Most likely vote total: 5% Change since last election: ▲0.3% 5.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 19 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 24 Most likely seat total: 24 Change since last election: ▲0 29 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative | 3 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 7  Most likely seat total: 7 Change since last election: ▼1 12 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲1 5 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other | 0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
Nova Scotia
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Breton—Canso | CON | 50 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LIB |
| Central Nova | NDP | 45 | 27 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 6 | LIB |
| Cumberland—Colchester | NDP | 31 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 5 | CON |
| Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | NDP | 53 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 10 | LIB |
| Halifax | CON | 36 | 11 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 3 | NDP |
| Halifax West | LIB | 50 | 17 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 3 | LIB |
| Kings—Hants | CON | 44 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 5 | LIB |
| Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook | NDP | 45 | 24 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 4 | LIB |
| South Shore—St. Margarets | CON | 37 | 38 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | LEANS CON |
| Sydney—Victoria | LIB | 51 | 30 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LIB |
| West Nova | GRN | 39 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | CON |
New Brunswick
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acadie—Bathurst | CON | 66 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 7 | LIB |
| Beauséjour | LIB | 56 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | LIB |
| Fredericton | NDP | 50 | 22 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LIB |
| Fundy Royal | CON | 24 | 44 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 10 | CON |
| Madawaska—Restigouche | CON | 63 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | LIB |
| Miramichi—Grand Lake | CON | 39 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 6 | LEANS CON |
| Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe | LIB | 49 | 22 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LIB |
| New Brunswick Southwest | LIB | 25 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 9 | CON |
| Saint John—Rothesay | NDP | 53 | 28 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 7 | LIB |
| Tobique—Mactaquac | NDP | 22 | 50 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 10 | CON |
Newfoundland and Labrador
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalon | LIB | 51 | 30 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | LIB |
| Bonavista—Burin—Trinity | NDP | 51 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LIB |
| Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame | LIB | 48 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LEANS LIB |
| Labrador | CON | 41 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | LIB |
| Long Range Mountains | CON | 59 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LIB |
| St. John's East | CON | 46 | 16 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | LIB |
| St. John's South—Mount Pearl | CON | 55 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | LIB |
Prince Edward Island
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardigan | NDP | 50 | 27 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 5 | LIB |
| Charlottetown | NDP | 45 | 29 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| Egmont | CON | 48 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | LIB |
| Malpeque | LIB | 43 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 3 | LIB |
