Next Canadian federal election projection

last updated: Monday, May 30, 2022 at 07:53 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTY	VOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal	15.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 17.5% Most likely vote total: 17.5% Change since last election: ▲2.1% 19.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	48.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 54.2% Most likely vote total: 54.2% Change since last election: ▼1.2% 59.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	16.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.4% Most likely vote total: 18.4% Change since last election: ▼0.7% 20.2% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 0.4% Most likely vote total: 0.4% Change since last election: ▼0.5% 0.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	8.6% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 9.5% Most likely vote total: 9.5% Change since last election: ▲0.2% 10.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval

PARTY	SEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3 Most likely seat total: 3 Change since last election: ▲1 6 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	25 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 30 Most likely seat total: 30 Change since last election: ▲0 33 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	1 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▼1 5 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 0 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Riding name:	Incumbent	Lib.	Con.	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Banff—Airdrie	CON	11	57	17	1	14	CON
Battle River—Crowfoot	CON	6	71	9	0	14	CON
Bow River	CON	10	70	9	0	11	CON
Calgary Centre	CON	37	43	18	1	1	LEANS CON
Calgary Confederation	CON	32	48	13	2	5	CON
Calgary Forest Lawn	CON	25	46	19	1	9	CON
Calgary Heritage	CON	19	57	16	0	7	CON
Calgary Midnapore	CON	14	61	18	1	6	CON
Calgary Nose Hill	CON	26	47	18	1	7	CON
Calgary Rocky Ridge	CON	25	56	12	1	6	CON
Calgary Shepard	CON	13	61	17	1	8	CON
Calgary Signal Hill	CON	21	58	14	1	6	CON
Calgary Skyview	LIB	55	34	7	0	4	LIB
Edmonton Centre	LIB	41	24	29	0	6	LIB
Edmonton Griesbach	NDP	16	44	37	0	3	LEANS CON
Edmonton Manning	CON	19	41	32	0	8	CON
Edmonton Mill Woods	CON	37	36	20	0	6	TOSS-UP
Edmonton Riverbend	CON	27	45	25	1	3	CON
Edmonton Strathcona	NDP	10	19	64	1	6	NDP
Edmonton West	CON	27	47	19	0	7	CON
Edmonton—Wetaskiwin	CON	13	56	22	0	10	CON
Foothills	CON	9	69	10	0	12	CON
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake	CON	9	69	10	0	11	CON
Grande Prairie—Mackenzie	CON	7	61	14	0	19	CON
Lakeland	CON	6	71	8	0	15	CON
Lethbridge	CON	14	56	20	0	11	CON
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner	CON	9	65	13	0	12	CON
Peace River—Westlock	CON	7	64	13	0	15	CON
Red Deer—Lacombe	CON	9	56	16	0	19	CON
Red Deer—Mountain View	CON	8	66	10	0	16	CON
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan	CON	11	58	21	0	9	CON
St. Albert—Edmonton	CON	20	47	27	0	6	CON
Sturgeon River—Parkland	CON	9	62	19	0	10	CON
Yellowhead	CON	8	58	13	0	20	CON