Next Canadian federal election projection

last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTY	VOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal	31.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 34.9% Most likely vote total: 34.9% Change since last election: ▲2.4% 38.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	27.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 30.5% Most likely vote total: 30.5% Change since last election: ▼4% 33.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	16.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.8% Most likely vote total: 18.8% Change since last election: ▲2.1% 20.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Bloc	6.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.7% Most likely vote total: 6.7% Change since last election: ▼0.9% 7.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	5.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6% Most likely vote total: 6% Change since last election: ▼0.8% 6.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	2.7% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3% Most likely vote total: 3% Change since last election: ▲1.3% 3.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval

PARTY	SEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal	145 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 172 Most likely seat total: 172 Change since last election: ▲15 185 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	93 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 109 Most likely seat total: 109 Change since last election: ▼12 128 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 25 Most likely seat total: 25 Change since last election: ▲1 43 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Bloc	18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 27 Most likely seat total: 27 Change since last election: ▼5 37 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2 Most likely seat total: 2 Change since last election: ▼1 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3 Most likely seat total: 3 Change since last election: ▲2 7 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval

Polling Firm:	Date:	Lib.	Con.	NDP	Bloc	Green	Other	Poll weight:
Angus Reid	2021-02-19	34	31	20	7	5	3	0.428
Leger	2021-02-14	36	29	20	6	7	2	0.133
Ipsos	2021-02-10	33	30	20	8	8	1	0.063
Abacus	2021-02-03	32	31	18	8	7	4	0.061
Innovative	2021-02-01	38	28	15	7	8	4	0.035
Leger	2021-01-31	37	28	22	7	5	1	0
Campaign	2021-01-30	34	30	19	6	8	3	0.056
EKOS	2021-01-27	34.3	30.9	15	5.7	7.7	6.4	0.055
Angus Reid	2021-01-24	35	30	20	6	5	4	0
Mainstreet	2021-01-20	39.3	31.9	14.4	5.2	5.2	4	0.05
Leger	2021-01-17	36	29	21	7	6	1	0
Abacus	2021-01-12	35	31	17	8	6	3	0
Ipsos	2021-01-06	36	29	19	6	8	2	0
Leger	2021-01-03	35	30	20	7	6	2	0
Pollara	2020-12-23	38	29	18	7	6	2	0.044
Abacus	2020-12-18	35	32	17	7	7	2	0
Research Co.	2020-12-14	37	31	20	7	3	2	0.032
Ipsos	2020-12-14	35	32	18	7	7	1	0
Leger	2020-12-13	35	29	23	7	5	1	0
Campaign	2020-12-03	35	32	19	5	6	3	0
Angus Reid	2020-11-30	34	33	19	6	4	4	0
Leger	2020-11-29	34	30	20	7	7	2	0
Mainstreet	2020-11-26	39	31.7	12.3	5.1	6.7	5.2	0
Ekos	2020-11-26	35	31.3	13.9	6.9	6.8	6.1	0.018
Delphi	2020-11-25	38	32	16	6	6	2	0.025
Abacus	2020-11-24	36	30	16	7	5	6	0
Ipsos	2020-11-23	36	31	17	8	7	1	0
Leger	2020-11-15	35	31	18	8	6	2	0
Abacus	2020-11-12	38	30	15	8	6	3	0
Angus Reid	2020-11-09	35	33	18	7	5	2	0