
Next Canadian federal election projection
last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)
PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
---|---|
Liberal ![]() |
31.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 34.9%
![]() Most likely vote total: 34.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.4% 38.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative ![]() |
27.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 30.5%
![]() Most likely vote total: 30.5%
Change since last election: ▼4% 33.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP ![]() |
16.9%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.8%
![]() Most likely vote total: 18.8%
Change since last election: ▲2.1% 20.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc ![]() |
6.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.7%
![]() Most likely vote total: 6.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.9% 7.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green ![]() |
5.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6%
![]() Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▼0.8% 6.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other ![]() |
2.7%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3%
![]() Most likely vote total: 3%
Change since last election: ▲1.3% 3.3%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
---|---|
Liberal ![]() |
145 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 172
![]() Most likely seat total: 172
Change since last election: ▲15 185 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative ![]() |
93 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 109
![]() Most likely seat total: 109
Change since last election: ▼12 128 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP ![]() |
18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 25
![]() Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▲1 43 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc ![]() |
18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 27
![]() Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5 37 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green ![]() |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2
![]() Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other ![]() |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3
![]() Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2 7 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Polling Firm: | Date: | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Angus Reid | 2021-02-19 | 34 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.428 | ![]() |
Leger | 2021-02-14 | 36 | 29 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0.133 | ![]() |
Ipsos | 2021-02-10 | 33 | 30 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0.063 | ![]() |
Abacus | 2021-02-03 | 32 | 31 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0.061 | ![]() |
Innovative | 2021-02-01 | 38 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0.035 | ![]() |
Leger | 2021-01-31 | 37 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | ![]() |
Campaign | 2021-01-30 | 34 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 0.056 | ![]() |
EKOS | 2021-01-27 | 34.3 | 30.9 | 15 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 0.055 | ![]() |
Angus Reid | 2021-01-24 | 35 | 30 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2021-01-20 | 39.3 | 31.9 | 14.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4 | 0.05 | ![]() |
Leger | 2021-01-17 | 36 | 29 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | ![]() |
Abacus | 2021-01-12 | 35 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | ![]() |
Ipsos | 2021-01-06 | 36 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | ![]() |
Leger | 2021-01-03 | 35 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | ![]() |
Pollara | 2020-12-23 | 38 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.044 | ![]() |
Abacus | 2020-12-18 | 35 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | ![]() |
Research Co. | 2020-12-14 | 37 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0.032 | ![]() |
Ipsos | 2020-12-14 | 35 | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | ![]() |
Leger | 2020-12-13 | 35 | 29 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | ![]() |
Campaign | 2020-12-03 | 35 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | ![]() |
Angus Reid | 2020-11-30 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | ![]() |
Leger | 2020-11-29 | 34 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | ![]() |
Mainstreet | 2020-11-26 | 39 | 31.7 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 0 | ![]() |
Ekos | 2020-11-26 | 35 | 31.3 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 0.018 | ![]() |
Delphi | 2020-11-25 | 38 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0.025 | ![]() |
Abacus | 2020-11-24 | 36 | 30 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | ![]() |
Ipsos | 2020-11-23 | 36 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | ![]() |
Leger | 2020-11-15 | 35 | 31 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | ![]() |
Abacus | 2020-11-12 | 38 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | ![]() |
Angus Reid | 2020-11-09 | 35 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | ![]() |
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