Next Canadian federal election projection

last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
31.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
34.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 34.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.4%
38.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.5%
Change since last election: ▼4%
33.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.8%
Change since last election: ▲2.1%
20.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.7%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 6.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.9%
7.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
5.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
6.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
3.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
145 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
172
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 172
Change since last election: ▲15
185 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
93 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
109
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 109
Change since last election: ▼12
128 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
25
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▲1
43 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5
37 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Angus Reid 2021-02-19 34 31 20 7 5 3 0.428
Leger 2021-02-14 36 29 20 6 7 2 0.133
Ipsos 2021-02-10 33 30 20 8 8 1 0.063
Abacus 2021-02-03 32 31 18 8 7 4 0.061
Innovative 2021-02-01 38 28 15 7 8 4 0.035
Leger 2021-01-31 37 28 22 7 5 1 0
Campaign 2021-01-30 34 30 19 6 8 3 0.056
EKOS 2021-01-27 34.3 30.9 15 5.7 7.7 6.4 0.055
Angus Reid 2021-01-24 35 30 20 6 5 4 0
Mainstreet 2021-01-20 39.3 31.9 14.4 5.2 5.2 4 0.05
Leger 2021-01-17 36 29 21 7 6 1 0
Abacus 2021-01-12 35 31 17 8 6 3 0
Ipsos 2021-01-06 36 29 19 6 8 2 0
Leger 2021-01-03 35 30 20 7 6 2 0
Pollara 2020-12-23 38 29 18 7 6 2 0.044
Abacus 2020-12-18 35 32 17 7 7 2 0
Research Co. 2020-12-14 37 31 20 7 3 2 0.032
Ipsos 2020-12-14 35 32 18 7 7 1 0
Leger 2020-12-13 35 29 23 7 5 1 0
Campaign 2020-12-03 35 32 19 5 6 3 0
Angus Reid 2020-11-30 34 33 19 6 4 4 0
Leger 2020-11-29 34 30 20 7 7 2 0
Mainstreet 2020-11-26 39 31.7 12.3 5.1 6.7 5.2 0
Ekos 2020-11-26 35 31.3 13.9 6.9 6.8 6.1 0.018
Delphi 2020-11-25 38 32 16 6 6 2 0.025
Abacus 2020-11-24 36 30 16 7 5 6 0
Ipsos 2020-11-23 36 31 17 8 7 1 0
Leger 2020-11-15 35 31 18 8 6 2 0
Abacus 2020-11-12 38 30 15 8 6 3 0
Angus Reid 2020-11-09 35 33 18 7 5 2 0

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