Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

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Vote projections

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PARTY	VOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal	30.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 33.5% Most likely vote total: 33.5% Change since last election: ▼0.7% 36.8% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	15.8% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 17.5% Most likely vote total: 17.5% Change since last election: ▲1.5% 19.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	11.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 12.4% Most likely vote total: 12.4% Change since last election: ▲1.7% 13.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Bloc	25.9% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 28.8% Most likely vote total: 28.8% Change since last election: ▼3.7% 31.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	4.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5% Most likely vote total: 5% Change since last election: ▲0.5% 5.5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	2.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 2.8% Most likely vote total: 2.8% Change since last election: ▲0.7% 3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval

Seat projections

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PARTY	SEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal	27 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 36 Most likely seat total: 36 Change since last election: ▲1 45 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	5 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 11 Most likely seat total: 11 Change since last election: ▲1 16 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3 Most likely seat total: 3 Change since last election: ▲2 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Bloc	18 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 27 Most likely seat total: 27 Change since last election: ▼5 37 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲1 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines

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Riding-by-riding vote projection

[dylan_page_title title=”Québec riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

Riding name:	Incumbent	Lib.	Con.	NDP	Bloc	Green	Other	Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	BQ	27	18	15	33	4	3	LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ	23	17	12	42	4	1	BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville	LIB	51	9	13	18	7	1	LIB
Alfred-Pellan	LIB	47	13	9	25	4	2	LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation	LIB	37	14	9	32	6	2	LEANS LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia	BQ	33	8	9	47	2	0	BQ
Beauce	CON	10	25	4	14	3	44	OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix	BQ	19	32	7	33	3	5	TOSS-UP
Beauport—Limoilou	BQ	26	28	11	27	5	3	TOSS-UP
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel	BQ	17	18	7	53	4	1	BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis	CON	15	54	7	19	4	3	CON
Beloeil—Chambly	BQ	16	8	17	53	5	1	BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ	12	11	41	33	0	2	LEANS NDP
Bourassa	LIB	57	9	10	19	4	2	LIB
Brome—Missisquoi	LIB	37	14	10	30	6	2	LEANS LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert	LIB	53	12	11	16	6	1	LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles	CON	19	41	9	23	4	3	CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle	LIB	38	13	9	33	4	2	LEANS LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	CON	14	43	8	29	4	2	CON
Compton—Stanstead	LIB	36	16	12	28	6	2	LEANS LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle	LIB	52	12	14	14	6	3	LIB
Drummond	BQ	16	18	18	41	4	2	BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	LIB	42	10	6	37	4	2	LEANS LIB
Gatineau	LIB	51	12	13	18	5	1	LIB
Hochelaga	LIB	37	6	21	34	1	2	LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier	LIB	58	11	10	17	3	1	LIB
Hull—Aylmer	LIB	53	11	16	11	8	2	LIB
Joliette	BQ	21	11	6	55	5	2	BQ
Jonquière	BQ	10	28	26	31	3	1	LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île	BQ	29	9	13	44	4	2	BQ
La Prairie	BQ	35	11	10	39	5	1	LEANS BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ	38	21	0	33	2	5	LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis	LIB	57	17	14	2	8	2	LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	LIB	42	8	19	20	8	2	LIB
Laurentides—Labelle	BQ	32	9	8	44	6	2	BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie	LIB	56	4	20	16	3	2	LIB
Laval—Les Îles	LIB	47	18	11	17	5	2	LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière	CON	15	48	8	21	3	4	CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne	LIB	38	9	12	32	7	1	LEANS LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	BQ	34	8	5	35	16	1	TOSS-UP
Louis-Hébert	LIB	40	19	10	24	5	2	LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent	CON	19	48	8	19	4	3	CON
Manicouagan	BQ	18	22	5	50	4	1	BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LIB	44	11	10	29	4	1	LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable	CON	14	53	6	22	3	3	CON
Mirabel	BQ	27	11	7	48	6	2	BQ
Montarville	BQ	34	9	10	40	6	2	LEANS BQ
Montcalm	BQ	19	11	8	55	5	2	BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup	CON	11	42	8	35	2	1	LEANS CON
Mount Royal	LIB	57	5	21	10	6	1	LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount	LIB	55	13	17	2	12	2	LIB
Outremont	LIB	44	8	22	11	13	2	LIB
Papineau	LIB	50	6	21	13	8	2	LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ	29	10	11	50	0	1	BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard	LIB	54	19	12	6	6	3	LIB
Pontiac	LIB	47	19	12	13	7	2	LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier	CON	18	47	7	20	4	3	CON
Québec	LIB	40	14	9	29	6	2	LIB
Repentigny	BQ	26	9	9	50	4	2	BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska	CON	14	54	2	24	6	1	CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques	BQ	21	14	25	37	2	1	BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ	39	10	6	32	6	7	LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-Nord	BQ	21	14	9	49	6	2	BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP	22	3	52	15	6	2	NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	BQ	20	16	21	38	4	1	BQ
Saint-Jean	BQ	29	9	8	42	6	7	BQ
Saint-Laurent	LIB	57	19	12	5	6	2	LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	LIB	60	13	8	7	3	9	LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain	LIB	39	18	7	30	4	2	LEANS LIB
Salaberry—Suroît	BQ	28	11	10	44	4	2	BQ
Shefford	BQ	35	14	8	36	5	2	TOSS-UP
Sherbrooke	LIB	28	12	31	22	5	2	LEANS NDP
Terrebonne	BQ	28	9	9	47	4	2	BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ	34	11	9	39	5	1	LEANS BQ
Trois-Rivières	BQ	23	30	18	25	2	1	LEANS CON
Vaudreuil—Soulanges	LIB	46	13	13	21	6	1	LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs	LIB	52	10	18	10	8	2	LIB
Vimy	LIB	47	12	10	24	4	2	LIB