Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Sunday, August 16 at 00:04 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Québec vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
36.2%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 36.2%
Change since last election: ▲2%
39.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
11.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.8%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 12.8%
Change since last election: ▼3.2%
14.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
8.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
9.6%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 9.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.1%
10.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
29% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.2%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 32.2%
Change since last election: ▼0.3%
35.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5.5%
Change since last election: ▲1%
6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.5%
4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Québec seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
28 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲2
46 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▼2
14 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
20 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
31
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 31
Change since last election: ▼1
41 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Québec riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 29 14 12 37 5 4 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 26 12 9 46 5 2 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 54 5 10 21 7 2 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 50 8 7 28 5 2 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 40 9 7 36 6 2 LEANS LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 36 5 7 50 2 0 BQ
Beauce CON 11 18 2 15 3 50 OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 22 26 5 37 4 7 BQ
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 29 23 8 31 5 3 LEANS BQ
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 19 13 5 57 4 2 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 18 47 4 23 4 4 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 18 4 13 57 6 2 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 15 8 36 39 0 3 LEANS BQ
Bourassa LIB 59 5 7 22 4 3 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 40 10 7 34 7 3 LEANS LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 56 8 9 19 6 2 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 22 35 7 27 5 4 LEANS CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 40 9 7 36 5 3 LEANS LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 17 36 6 34 4 3 LEANS CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 39 12 9 31 7 2 LEANS LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 55 8 11 16 7 3 LIB
Drummond BQ 18 14 15 46 4 3 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 44 6 4 40 4 2 LEANS LIB
Gatineau LIB 54 8 10 21 5 2 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 40 3 17 37 1 3 LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 61 7 7 19 4 2 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 56 7 12 14 8 3 LIB
Joliette BQ 23 7 4 58 5 3 BQ
Jonquière BQ 13 23 23 36 3 2 BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 31 5 10 47 4 2 BQ
La Prairie BQ 37 7 7 42 5 2 LEANS BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 40 16 0 36 3 6 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 60 12 11 5 8 3 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 45 5 15 23 8 3 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 34 5 6 47 6 2 BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 59 1 16 18 3 2 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 50 13 8 20 5 3 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 18 41 6 25 4 5 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 41 5 9 36 7 2 LEANS LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 36 4 3 38 17 2 LEANS BQ
Louis-Hébert LIB 43 15 7 27 5 3 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 22 41 6 22 4 4 CON
Manicouagan BQ 20 16 3 55 4 1 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 47 7 8 32 5 2 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 17 46 3 26 4 4 CON
Mirabel BQ 28 7 4 51 7 2 BQ
Montarville BQ 36 5 8 43 6 2 LEANS BQ
Montcalm BQ 21 7 6 58 6 3 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 13 35 6 41 3 2 LEANS BQ
Mount Royal LIB 60 2 17 12 7 2 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 58 9 14 4 12 2 LIB
Outremont LIB 48 4 18 13 14 2 LIB
Papineau LIB 53 2 18 15 9 3 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 31 6 8 53 1 1 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 59 14 9 8 6 4 LIB
Pontiac LIB 51 14 10 16 7 3 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 21 41 5 24 5 4 CON
Québec LIB 42 10 6 32 7 3 LIB
Repentigny BQ 28 5 6 54 5 2 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 16 46 0 28 7 2 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 23 10 21 42 3 2 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 41 6 4 35 6 8 LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 23 9 6 52 7 2 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 25 1 46 18 7 2 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 22 12 17 42 5 2 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 31 5 5 44 6 8 BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 61 14 9 7 7 2 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 62 9 6 9 3 10 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 42 13 5 34 4 3 LEANS LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 30 7 7 48 4 3 BQ
Shefford BQ 38 10 5 39 6 2 TOSS-UP
Sherbrooke LIB 31 8 27 26 6 2 LEANS LIB
Terrebonne BQ 30 6 7 51 5 2 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 37 7 7 42 6 2 LEANS BQ
Trois-Rivières BQ 26 24 15 29 3 2 LEANS BQ
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 49 9 10 24 6 2 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 55 6 15 13 8 3 LIB
Vimy LIB 50 8 8 27 5 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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