Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Québec vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
35.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 35.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.4%
39.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
14.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 16.6%
Change since last election: ▲0.6%
18.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
9.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
10.9%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 10.9%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
12% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
25.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.4%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 28.4%
Change since last election: ▼4.1%
31.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.9%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.4%
7.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
1.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 1.6%
Change since last election: ▼0.5%
1.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Québec seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
29 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
40
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 40
Change since last election: ▲5
47 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▲0
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
17 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
25
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▼7
38 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Québec riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 29 18 14 33 6 2 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 25 16 11 42 6 0 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 53 8 12 18 9 0 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 49 12 8 24 6 1 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 39 13 8 32 8 1 LEANS LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 35 8 8 46 3 0 BQ
Beauce CON 13 27 4 16 5 36 LEANS OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 21 31 6 33 5 4 LEANS BQ
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 28 27 10 27 7 2 TOSS-UP
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 18 17 6 53 6 0 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 17 52 5 19 5 2 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 18 7 15 52 7 1 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 14 11 39 34 1 1 LEANS NDP
Bourassa LIB 59 8 8 19 6 1 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 39 13 8 30 8 1 LEANS LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 55 11 10 16 8 0 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 21 40 8 23 6 2 CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 40 12 8 33 6 1 LEANS LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 16 42 7 29 5 1 CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 38 15 10 27 8 1 LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 54 11 12 13 8 1 LIB
Drummond BQ 18 18 17 41 6 1 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 44 9 5 36 5 1 LEANS LIB
Gatineau LIB 53 11 11 18 6 1 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 40 5 19 34 1 1 LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 60 10 8 16 5 1 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 55 10 14 11 10 1 LIB
Joliette BQ 23 10 5 54 7 1 BQ
Jonquière BQ 12 28 25 31 4 0 LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 31 8 11 43 6 1 BQ
La Prairie BQ 37 10 8 38 7 0 TOSS-UP
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 40 20 0 33 4 3 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 59 16 12 2 10 1 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 44 8 17 20 10 1 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 33 8 7 43 8 1 BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 58 3 18 15 4 1 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 49 17 9 17 7 1 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 17 47 7 21 5 3 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 40 8 11 32 9 1 LEANS LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 35 7 4 34 20 1 LEANS LIB
Louis-Hébert LIB 42 18 8 24 7 1 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 21 47 7 18 6 2 CON
Manicouagan BQ 20 21 4 50 5 0 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 46 10 9 28 6 1 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 16 52 4 21 5 2 CON
Mirabel BQ 28 10 5 47 8 1 BQ
Montarville BQ 36 8 9 39 8 1 LEANS BQ
Montcalm BQ 21 10 7 54 7 1 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 13 41 7 35 4 0 LEANS CON
Mount Royal LIB 59 4 18 10 8 1 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 56 12 15 2 14 1 LIB
Outremont LIB 46 7 20 10 16 1 LIB
Papineau LIB 52 5 19 12 10 1 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 31 9 9 49 1 0 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 57 18 10 6 8 2 LIB
Pontiac LIB 49 17 11 13 9 1 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 20 46 6 20 6 2 CON
Québec LIB 42 13 7 28 8 1 LIB
Repentigny BQ 28 8 7 50 6 1 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 15 52 1 24 8 1 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 23 13 23 37 4 0 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 42 9 5 32 8 5 LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 23 13 7 48 8 1 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 24 3 49 15 9 1 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 22 15 19 38 6 0 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 31 8 7 41 8 5 BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 59 18 10 5 8 1 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 63 13 7 7 5 6 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 41 17 6 30 6 1 LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 30 11 8 44 6 1 BQ
Shefford BQ 37 13 6 35 7 1 LEANS LIB
Sherbrooke LIB 30 11 29 22 7 1 TOSS-UP
Terrebonne BQ 30 8 8 47 6 1 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 36 10 8 38 7 1 LEANS BQ
Trois-Rivières BQ 25 29 16 25 4 1 LEANS CON
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 48 12 11 20 8 1 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 54 9 16 10 10 1 LIB
Vimy LIB 49 11 9 24 6 1 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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