Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec
last updated: Friday, February 14, 2020 at 20:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected Québec vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
30.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 33.5%
Most likely vote total: 33.5%
Change since last election: ▼0.7% 36.8%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
14.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 15.8%
Most likely vote total: 15.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.2% 17.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
10.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 11.2%
Most likely vote total: 11.2%
Change since last election: ▲0.5% 12.3%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  |
28.3%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 31.5%
Most likely vote total: 31.5%
Change since last election: ▼1% 34.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
4.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5%
Most likely vote total: 5%
Change since last election: ▲0.5% 5.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
2.7%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3%
Most likely vote total: 3%
Change since last election: ▲0.9% 3.3%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected Québec seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
26 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 36
Most likely seat total: 36
Change since last election: ▲1 43 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
5 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 9
Most likely seat total: 9
Change since last election: ▼1 15 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2 7 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc |
20 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 29
Most likely seat total: 29
Change since last election: ▼3 39 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
Québec riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AbitibióBaie-JamesóNunavikóEeyou | BQ | 27 | 17 | 14 | 36 | 4 | 3 | LEANS BQ |
| AbitibióTÈmiscamingue | BQ | 23 | 15 | 11 | 45 | 4 | 1 | BQ |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | LIB | 52 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Alfred-Pellan | LIB | 47 | 11 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| ArgenteuilóLa Petite-Nation | LIB | 37 | 12 | 8 | 35 | 5 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| AvignonóLa MitisóMataneóMatapÈdia | BQ | 33 | 7 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 0 | BQ |
| Beauce | CON | 10 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 46 | OTH |
| Beauport-CÙte-de-BeauprÈ-Œle d'OrlÈans-Charlevoix | BQ | 19 | 30 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 6 | LEANS BQ |
| BeauportóLimoilou | BQ | 26 | 26 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 3 | LEANS BQ |
| BÈcancouróNicoletóSaurel | BQ | 17 | 16 | 6 | 56 | 4 | 1 | BQ |
| BellechasseóLes EtcheminsóLÈvis | CON | 15 | 51 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| BeloeilóChambly | BQ | 16 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 5 | 1 | BQ |
| BerthieróMaskinongÈ | BQ | 13 | 10 | 39 | 37 | 0 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
| Bourassa | LIB | 57 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| BromeóMissisquoi | LIB | 37 | 13 | 9 | 33 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| BrossardóSaint-Lambert | LIB | 53 | 11 | 10 | 19 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| CharlesbourgóHaute-Saint-Charles | CON | 20 | 39 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| Ch‚teauguayóLacolle | LIB | 38 | 11 | 8 | 36 | 4 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| ChicoutimióLe Fjord | CON | 15 | 40 | 7 | 32 | 4 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| ComptonóStanstead | LIB | 36 | 15 | 10 | 31 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| DorvalóLachineóLaSalle | LIB | 52 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Drummond | BQ | 16 | 17 | 17 | 44 | 4 | 2 | BQ |
| GaspÈsieóLes Œles-de-la-Madeleine | LIB | 42 | 8 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Gatineau | LIB | 51 | 10 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Hochelaga | LIB | 37 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| HonorÈ-Mercier | LIB | 58 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| HullóAylmer | LIB | 53 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| Joliette | BQ | 21 | 9 | 5 | 58 | 5 | 2 | BQ |
| JonquiËre | BQ | 10 | 26 | 25 | 34 | 2 | 1 | LEANS BQ |
| La Pointe-de-l'Œle | BQ | 29 | 7 | 12 | 47 | 4 | 2 | BQ |
| La Prairie | BQ | 35 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 5 | 1 | LEANS BQ |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ | 37 | 19 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 5 | LEANS LIB |
| Lac-Saint-Louis | LIB | 57 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| LaSalleó…mardóVerdun | LIB | 42 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| LaurentidesóLabelle | BQ | 31 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 6 | 2 | BQ |
| LaurieróSainte-Marie | LIB | 56 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| LavalóLes Œles | LIB | 47 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| LÈvisóLotbiniËre | CON | 16 | 46 | 7 | 24 | 4 | 4 | CON |
| LongueuilóCharles-LeMoyne | LIB | 38 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| LongueuilóSaint-Hubert | BQ | 34 | 6 | 4 | 38 | 16 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Louis-HÈbert | LIB | 40 | 18 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Louis-Saint-Laurent | CON | 19 | 46 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| Manicouagan | BQ | 18 | 19 | 4 | 54 | 4 | 1 | BQ |
| Marc-AurËle-Fortin | LIB | 44 | 10 | 9 | 31 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| MÈganticóL'…rable | CON | 14 | 50 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 3 | CON |
| Mirabel | BQ | 26 | 9 | 6 | 51 | 6 | 2 | BQ |
| Montarville | BQ | 34 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 6 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Montcalm | BQ | 19 | 9 | 7 | 58 | 5 | 2 | BQ |
| MontmagnyóL'IsletóKamouraskaóRiviËre-du-Loup | CON | 11 | 39 | 8 | 39 | 2 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
| Mount Royal | LIB | 57 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Notre-Dame-de-Gr‚ceóWestmount | LIB | 55 | 12 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 2 | LIB |
| Outremont | LIB | 45 | 7 | 21 | 13 | 13 | 2 | LIB |
| Papineau | LIB | 50 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Pierre-BoucheróLes PatriotesóVerchËres | BQ | 29 | 8 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 1 | BQ |
| PierrefondsóDollard | LIB | 55 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Pontiac | LIB | 48 | 17 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| PortneufóJacques-Cartier | CON | 18 | 45 | 6 | 23 | 4 | 4 | CON |
| QuÈbec | LIB | 40 | 12 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Repentigny | BQ | 26 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 4 | 2 | BQ |
| RichmondóArthabaska | CON | 14 | 51 | 1 | 27 | 6 | 2 | CON |
| Rimouski-NeigetteóTÈmiscouataóLes Basques | BQ | 21 | 12 | 23 | 41 | 2 | 1 | BQ |
| RiviËre-des-Mille-Œles | BQ | 39 | 8 | 5 | 35 | 6 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| RiviËre-du-Nord | BQ | 21 | 12 | 8 | 52 | 6 | 2 | BQ |
| RosemontóLa Petite-Patrie | NDP | 22 | 2 | 50 | 17 | 6 | 2 | NDP |
| Saint-HyacintheóBagot | BQ | 20 | 15 | 19 | 41 | 4 | 1 | BQ |
| Saint-Jean | BQ | 29 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 6 | 7 | BQ |
| Saint-Laurent | LIB | 57 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Saint-LÈonardóSaint-Michel | LIB | 60 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 9 | LIB |
| Saint-MauriceóChamplain | LIB | 39 | 17 | 6 | 33 | 4 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| SalaberryóSuroÓt | BQ | 28 | 10 | 9 | 47 | 4 | 2 | BQ |
| Shefford | BQ | 35 | 13 | 7 | 38 | 5 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Sherbrooke | LIB | 28 | 11 | 29 | 25 | 5 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Terrebonne | BQ | 28 | 8 | 8 | 50 | 4 | 2 | BQ |
| ThÈrËse-De Blainville | BQ | 34 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 5 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Trois-RiviËres | BQ | 24 | 28 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| VaudreuilóSoulanges | LIB | 46 | 12 | 12 | 23 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Ville-MarieóLe Sud-OuestóŒle-des-Soeurs | LIB | 52 | 9 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| Vimy | LIB | 47 | 11 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.