Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 20:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Québec vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
31.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
35%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 35%
Change since last election: ▲0.8%
38.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
15.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.9%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 16.9%
Change since last election: ▲0.9%
18.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
11.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.3%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 12.3%
Change since last election: ▲1.6%
13.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
26.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
29.6%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 29.6%
Change since last election: ▼2.9%
32.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.7%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 4.7%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
5.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
1.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 1.5%
Change since last election: ▼0.6%
1.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Québec seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
27 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲2
46 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▲0
16 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
9 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5
38 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Québec riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 28 18 15 34 4 2 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 24 16 12 43 4 0 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 53 8 13 19 6 0 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 49 12 9 26 4 1 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 39 13 9 33 5 1 LEANS LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 34 8 9 47 2 0 BQ
Beauce CON 13 28 5 17 3 35 LEANS OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 21 32 7 34 3 3 LEANS BQ
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 28 28 11 28 5 1 TOSS-UP
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 18 18 7 54 4 0 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 16 53 7 20 3 1 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 17 7 17 53 5 0 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 13 11 41 34 0 1 LEANS NDP
Bourassa LIB 58 8 10 20 4 1 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 39 14 10 31 6 1 LEANS LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 54 12 11 17 6 0 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 21 41 9 24 4 1 CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 39 12 9 34 4 1 LEANS LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 16 42 8 30 3 1 CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 38 16 11 29 6 1 LEANS LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 53 12 14 14 6 1 LIB
Drummond BQ 17 18 18 42 4 1 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 43 9 6 38 3 1 LEANS LIB
Gatineau LIB 53 11 13 19 4 1 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 38 5 20 35 0 1 LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 59 10 10 17 3 0 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 54 10 15 12 7 1 LIB
Joliette BQ 22 10 6 56 4 1 BQ
Jonquière BQ 11 28 26 32 2 0 LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 30 8 13 44 4 1 BQ
La Prairie BQ 36 10 9 39 5 0 LEANS BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 40 21 0 34 2 3 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 58 16 14 3 7 1 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 44 8 19 21 7 1 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 33 9 8 45 5 1 BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 57 4 20 16 3 1 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 49 17 10 18 5 1 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 16 48 8 22 3 2 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 40 8 12 33 6 0 LEANS LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 36 7 5 36 16 1 TOSS-UP
Louis-Hébert LIB 41 19 10 25 4 1 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 20 48 8 19 4 1 CON
Manicouagan BQ 19 21 5 51 4 0 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 45 11 10 29 4 0 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 15 52 6 23 3 2 CON
Mirabel BQ 28 10 6 49 6 1 BQ
Montarville BQ 35 8 10 41 5 1 LEANS BQ
Montcalm BQ 20 10 8 56 5 1 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 12 41 8 36 2 0 LEANS CON
Mount Royal LIB 59 4 20 11 6 0 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 56 12 17 2 11 1 LIB
Outremont LIB 46 7 22 11 13 1 LIB
Papineau LIB 51 5 21 13 8 1 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 30 9 10 50 0 0 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 56 19 12 6 5 1 LIB
Pontiac LIB 49 18 12 14 6 1 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 19 46 7 21 4 2 CON
Québec LIB 41 13 8 30 6 1 LIB
Repentigny BQ 27 9 9 51 4 1 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 15 53 2 25 6 1 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 22 13 25 38 2 0 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 41 9 6 33 6 4 LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 22 13 9 50 6 1 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 23 3 52 16 6 1 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 21 16 21 39 4 0 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 31 9 8 43 6 4 BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 58 18 12 5 6 1 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 62 13 8 8 3 6 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 40 18 7 31 3 1 LEANS LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 30 11 10 45 4 1 BQ
Shefford BQ 37 14 8 36 5 1 TOSS-UP
Sherbrooke LIB 29 12 31 23 5 1 LEANS NDP
Terrebonne BQ 29 9 9 48 4 1 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 36 10 9 40 5 1 LEANS BQ
Trois-Rivières BQ 25 29 18 26 2 0 LEANS CON
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 48 12 13 21 5 0 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 54 10 18 11 7 1 LIB
Vimy LIB 48 12 10 25 4 1 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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