last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

[dylan_tabs style=”minimal-tabs” alignment=”center”]
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Québec vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
30.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 33.5%
Change since last election: ▼0.7%
36.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
15.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
17.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 17.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.5%
19.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
11.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 12.4%
Change since last election: ▲1.7%
13.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
25.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.8%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 28.8%
Change since last election: ▼3.7%
31.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
4.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5%
Change since last election: ▲0.5%
5.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.8%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.8%
Change since last election: ▲0.7%
3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Québec seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
27 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
36
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 36
Change since last election: ▲1
45 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
11
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▲1
16 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5
37 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”Québec riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 27 18 15 33 4 3 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 23 17 12 42 4 1 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 51 9 13 18 7 1 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 47 13 9 25 4 2 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 37 14 9 32 6 2 LEANS LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 33 8 9 47 2 0 BQ
Beauce CON 10 25 4 14 3 44 OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 19 32 7 33 3 5 TOSS-UP
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 26 28 11 27 5 3 TOSS-UP
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 17 18 7 53 4 1 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 15 54 7 19 4 3 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 16 8 17 53 5 1 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 12 11 41 33 0 2 LEANS NDP
Bourassa LIB 57 9 10 19 4 2 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 37 14 10 30 6 2 LEANS LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 53 12 11 16 6 1 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 19 41 9 23 4 3 CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 38 13 9 33 4 2 LEANS LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 14 43 8 29 4 2 CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 36 16 12 28 6 2 LEANS LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 52 12 14 14 6 3 LIB
Drummond BQ 16 18 18 41 4 2 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 42 10 6 37 4 2 LEANS LIB
Gatineau LIB 51 12 13 18 5 1 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 37 6 21 34 1 2 LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 58 11 10 17 3 1 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 53 11 16 11 8 2 LIB
Joliette BQ 21 11 6 55 5 2 BQ
Jonquière BQ 10 28 26 31 3 1 LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 29 9 13 44 4 2 BQ
La Prairie BQ 35 11 10 39 5 1 LEANS BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 38 21 0 33 2 5 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 57 17 14 2 8 2 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 42 8 19 20 8 2 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 32 9 8 44 6 2 BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 56 4 20 16 3 2 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 47 18 11 17 5 2 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 15 48 8 21 3 4 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 38 9 12 32 7 1 LEANS LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 34 8 5 35 16 1 TOSS-UP
Louis-Hébert LIB 40 19 10 24 5 2 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 19 48 8 19 4 3 CON
Manicouagan BQ 18 22 5 50 4 1 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 44 11 10 29 4 1 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 14 53 6 22 3 3 CON
Mirabel BQ 27 11 7 48 6 2 BQ
Montarville BQ 34 9 10 40 6 2 LEANS BQ
Montcalm BQ 19 11 8 55 5 2 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 11 42 8 35 2 1 LEANS CON
Mount Royal LIB 57 5 21 10 6 1 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 55 13 17 2 12 2 LIB
Outremont LIB 44 8 22 11 13 2 LIB
Papineau LIB 50 6 21 13 8 2 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 29 10 11 50 0 1 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 54 19 12 6 6 3 LIB
Pontiac LIB 47 19 12 13 7 2 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 18 47 7 20 4 3 CON
Québec LIB 40 14 9 29 6 2 LIB
Repentigny BQ 26 9 9 50 4 2 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 14 54 2 24 6 1 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 21 14 25 37 2 1 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 39 10 6 32 6 7 LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 21 14 9 49 6 2 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 22 3 52 15 6 2 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 20 16 21 38 4 1 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 29 9 8 42 6 7 BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 57 19 12 5 6 2 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 60 13 8 7 3 9 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 39 18 7 30 4 2 LEANS LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 28 11 10 44 4 2 BQ
Shefford BQ 35 14 8 36 5 2 TOSS-UP
Sherbrooke LIB 28 12 31 22 5 2 LEANS NDP
Terrebonne BQ 28 9 9 47 4 2 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 34 11 9 39 5 1 LEANS BQ
Trois-Rivières BQ 23 30 18 25 2 1 LEANS CON
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 46 13 13 21 6 1 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 52 10 18 10 8 2 LIB
Vimy LIB 47 12 10 24 4 2 LIB
[dylan_page_title title=”Regional projections & riding-level data” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[/dylan_tabs]

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics