Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec
last updated: Sunday, August 16 at 00:04 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected Québec vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
32.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 36.2%
Most likely vote total: 36.2%
Change since last election: ▲2% 39.8%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
11.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 12.8%
Most likely vote total: 12.8%
Change since last election: ▼3.2% 14.1%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
8.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 9.6%
Most likely vote total: 9.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.1% 10.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  |
29%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 32.2%
Most likely vote total: 32.2%
Change since last election: ▼0.3% 35.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
4.9%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5.5%
Most likely vote total: 5.5%
Change since last election: ▲1% 6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
3.3%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.6%
Most likely vote total: 3.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.5% 4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected Québec seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
28 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 37
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲2 46 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
2 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 8
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▼2 14 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0 6 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc |
20 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 31
Most likely seat total: 31
Change since last election: ▼1 41 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
Québec riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | BQ | 29 | 14 | 12 | 37 | 5 | 4 | LEANS BQ |
| Abitibi—Témiscamingue | BQ | 26 | 12 | 9 | 46 | 5 | 2 | BQ |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | LIB | 54 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Alfred-Pellan | LIB | 50 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | LIB | 40 | 9 | 7 | 36 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia | BQ | 36 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 2 | 0 | BQ |
| Beauce | CON | 11 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 50 | OTH |
| Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix | BQ | 22 | 26 | 5 | 37 | 4 | 7 | BQ |
| Beauport—Limoilou | BQ | 29 | 23 | 8 | 31 | 5 | 3 | LEANS BQ |
| Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel | BQ | 19 | 13 | 5 | 57 | 4 | 2 | BQ |
| Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | CON | 18 | 47 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 4 | CON |
| Beloeil—Chambly | BQ | 18 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 6 | 2 | BQ |
| Berthier—Maskinongé | BQ | 15 | 8 | 36 | 39 | 0 | 3 | LEANS BQ |
| Bourassa | LIB | 59 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 4 | 3 | LIB |
| Brome—Missisquoi | LIB | 40 | 10 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Brossard—Saint-Lambert | LIB | 56 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | CON | 22 | 35 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Châteauguay—Lacolle | LIB | 40 | 9 | 7 | 36 | 5 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | CON | 17 | 36 | 6 | 34 | 4 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Compton—Stanstead | LIB | 39 | 12 | 9 | 31 | 7 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | LIB | 55 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 3 | LIB |
| Drummond | BQ | 18 | 14 | 15 | 46 | 4 | 3 | BQ |
| Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | LIB | 44 | 6 | 4 | 40 | 4 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Gatineau | LIB | 54 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Hochelaga | LIB | 40 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 1 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Honoré-Mercier | LIB | 61 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Hull—Aylmer | LIB | 56 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Joliette | BQ | 23 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 5 | 3 | BQ |
| Jonquière | BQ | 13 | 23 | 23 | 36 | 3 | 2 | BQ |
| La Pointe-de-l'Île | BQ | 31 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 4 | 2 | BQ |
| La Prairie | BQ | 37 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 5 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | BQ | 40 | 16 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 6 | LEANS LIB |
| Lac-Saint-Louis | LIB | 60 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | LIB | 45 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Laurentides—Labelle | BQ | 34 | 5 | 6 | 47 | 6 | 2 | BQ |
| Laurier—Sainte-Marie | LIB | 59 | 1 | 16 | 18 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Laval—Les Îles | LIB | 50 | 13 | 8 | 20 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Lévis—Lotbinière | CON | 18 | 41 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 5 | CON |
| Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | LIB | 41 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | BQ | 36 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Louis-Hébert | LIB | 43 | 15 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 3 | LIB |
| Louis-Saint-Laurent | CON | 22 | 41 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 4 | CON |
| Manicouagan | BQ | 20 | 16 | 3 | 55 | 4 | 1 | BQ |
| Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | LIB | 47 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Mégantic—L'Érable | CON | 17 | 46 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 4 | CON |
| Mirabel | BQ | 28 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 7 | 2 | BQ |
| Montarville | BQ | 36 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 6 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Montcalm | BQ | 21 | 7 | 6 | 58 | 6 | 3 | BQ |
| Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup | CON | 13 | 35 | 6 | 41 | 3 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Mount Royal | LIB | 60 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | LIB | 58 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 2 | LIB |
| Outremont | LIB | 48 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 2 | LIB |
| Papineau | LIB | 53 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 3 | LIB |
| Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères | BQ | 31 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 1 | 1 | BQ |
| Pierrefonds—Dollard | LIB | 59 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | LIB |
| Pontiac | LIB | 51 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 3 | LIB |
| Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | CON | 21 | 41 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 4 | CON |
| Québec | LIB | 42 | 10 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 3 | LIB |
| Repentigny | BQ | 28 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 5 | 2 | BQ |
| Richmond—Arthabaska | CON | 16 | 46 | 0 | 28 | 7 | 2 | CON |
| Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques | BQ | 23 | 10 | 21 | 42 | 3 | 2 | BQ |
| Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | BQ | 41 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 6 | 8 | LEANS LIB |
| Rivière-du-Nord | BQ | 23 | 9 | 6 | 52 | 7 | 2 | BQ |
| Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | NDP | 25 | 1 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 2 | NDP |
| Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot | BQ | 22 | 12 | 17 | 42 | 5 | 2 | BQ |
| Saint-Jean | BQ | 31 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 6 | 8 | BQ |
| Saint-Laurent | LIB | 61 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | LIB | 62 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 10 | LIB |
| Saint-Maurice—Champlain | LIB | 42 | 13 | 5 | 34 | 4 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Salaberry—Suroît | BQ | 30 | 7 | 7 | 48 | 4 | 3 | BQ |
| Shefford | BQ | 38 | 10 | 5 | 39 | 6 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Sherbrooke | LIB | 31 | 8 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Terrebonne | BQ | 30 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 5 | 2 | BQ |
| Thérèse-De Blainville | BQ | 37 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 6 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Trois-Rivières | BQ | 26 | 24 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 2 | LEANS BQ |
| Vaudreuil—Soulanges | LIB | 49 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | LIB | 55 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 3 | LIB |
| Vimy | LIB | 50 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.