Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Friday, February 14, 2020 at 20:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Québec vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
30.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 33.5%
Change since last election: ▼0.7%
36.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
14.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
15.8%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 15.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.2%
17.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
10.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
11.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 11.2%
Change since last election: ▲0.5%
12.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
28.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.5%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 31.5%
Change since last election: ▼1%
34.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5%
Change since last election: ▲0.5%
5.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3%
Change since last election: ▲0.9%
3.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Québec seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
26 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
36
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 36
Change since last election: ▲1
43 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
9
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 9
Change since last election: ▼1
15 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
20 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
29
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 29
Change since last election: ▼3
39 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Québec riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
AbitibióBaie-JamesóNunavikóEeyou BQ 27 17 14 36 4 3 LEANS BQ
AbitibióTÈmiscamingue BQ 23 15 11 45 4 1 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 52 7 12 21 7 2 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 47 11 8 27 4 2 LIB
ArgenteuilóLa Petite-Nation LIB 37 12 8 35 5 2 LEANS LIB
AvignonóLa MitisóMataneóMatapÈdia BQ 33 7 8 49 2 0 BQ
Beauce CON 10 23 3 15 3 46 OTH
Beauport-CÙte-de-BeauprÈ-Œle d'OrlÈans-Charlevoix BQ 19 30 6 36 3 6 LEANS BQ
BeauportóLimoilou BQ 26 26 10 30 5 3 LEANS BQ
BÈcancouróNicoletóSaurel BQ 17 16 6 56 4 1 BQ
BellechasseóLes EtcheminsóLÈvis CON 15 51 6 22 4 3 CON
BeloeilóChambly BQ 16 6 15 56 5 1 BQ
BerthieróMaskinongÈ BQ 13 10 39 37 0 2 LEANS NDP
Bourassa LIB 57 7 9 21 4 2 LIB
BromeóMissisquoi LIB 37 13 9 33 6 2 LEANS LIB
BrossardóSaint-Lambert LIB 53 11 10 19 6 1 LIB
CharlesbourgóHaute-Saint-Charles CON 20 39 8 26 4 3 CON
Ch‚teauguayóLacolle LIB 38 11 8 36 4 3 LEANS LIB
ChicoutimióLe Fjord CON 15 40 7 32 4 2 LEANS CON
ComptonóStanstead LIB 36 15 10 31 6 2 LEANS LIB
DorvalóLachineóLaSalle LIB 52 11 13 16 6 3 LIB
Drummond BQ 16 17 17 44 4 2 BQ
GaspÈsieóLes Œles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 42 8 5 39 3 2 LEANS LIB
Gatineau LIB 51 10 12 20 5 2 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 37 5 19 37 0 2 TOSS-UP
HonorÈ-Mercier LIB 58 10 9 19 3 2 LIB
HullóAylmer LIB 53 9 14 13 8 2 LIB
Joliette BQ 21 9 5 58 5 2 BQ
JonquiËre BQ 10 26 25 34 2 1 LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Œle BQ 29 7 12 47 4 2 BQ
La Prairie BQ 35 9 8 42 5 1 LEANS BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 37 19 0 36 2 5 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 57 15 13 4 8 3 LIB
LaSalleó…mardóVerdun LIB 42 7 17 23 8 3 LIB
LaurentidesóLabelle BQ 31 8 7 47 6 2 BQ
LaurieróSainte-Marie LIB 56 3 19 18 3 2 LIB
LavalóLes Œles LIB 47 16 10 20 5 2 LIB
LÈvisóLotbiniËre CON 16 46 7 24 4 4 CON
LongueuilóCharles-LeMoyne LIB 38 8 11 35 6 2 LEANS LIB
LongueuilóSaint-Hubert BQ 34 6 4 38 16 2 LEANS BQ
Louis-HÈbert LIB 40 18 9 27 5 3 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 19 46 7 21 4 3 CON
Manicouagan BQ 18 19 4 54 4 1 BQ
Marc-AurËle-Fortin LIB 44 10 9 31 4 2 LIB
MÈganticóL'…rable CON 14 50 5 24 3 3 CON
Mirabel BQ 26 9 6 51 6 2 BQ
Montarville BQ 34 7 9 43 6 2 LEANS BQ
Montcalm BQ 19 9 7 58 5 2 BQ
MontmagnyóL'IsletóKamouraskaóRiviËre-du-Loup CON 11 39 8 39 2 1 TOSS-UP
Mount Royal LIB 57 4 19 12 6 2 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Gr‚ceóWestmount LIB 55 12 16 4 12 2 LIB
Outremont LIB 45 7 21 13 13 2 LIB
Papineau LIB 50 4 20 15 8 3 LIB
Pierre-BoucheróLes PatriotesóVerchËres BQ 29 8 9 53 0 1 BQ
PierrefondsóDollard LIB 55 18 11 7 6 3 LIB
Pontiac LIB 48 17 11 15 7 2 LIB
PortneufóJacques-Cartier CON 18 45 6 23 4 4 CON
QuÈbec LIB 40 12 8 31 6 3 LEANS LIB
Repentigny BQ 26 8 8 53 4 2 BQ
RichmondóArthabaska CON 14 51 1 27 6 2 CON
Rimouski-NeigetteóTÈmiscouataóLes Basques BQ 21 12 23 41 2 1 BQ
RiviËre-des-Mille-Œles BQ 39 8 5 35 6 7 LEANS LIB
RiviËre-du-Nord BQ 21 12 8 52 6 2 BQ
RosemontóLa Petite-Patrie NDP 22 2 50 17 6 2 NDP
Saint-HyacintheóBagot BQ 20 15 19 41 4 1 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 29 8 7 44 6 7 BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 57 18 11 6 6 2 LIB
Saint-LÈonardóSaint-Michel LIB 60 12 7 9 3 9 LIB
Saint-MauriceóChamplain LIB 39 17 6 33 4 2 LEANS LIB
SalaberryóSuroÓt BQ 28 10 9 47 4 2 BQ
Shefford BQ 35 13 7 38 5 2 LEANS BQ
Sherbrooke LIB 28 11 29 25 5 2 TOSS-UP
Terrebonne BQ 28 8 8 50 4 2 BQ
ThÈrËse-De Blainville BQ 34 9 8 42 5 2 LEANS BQ
Trois-RiviËres BQ 24 28 17 28 2 2 TOSS-UP
VaudreuilóSoulanges LIB 46 12 12 23 6 1 LIB
Ville-MarieóLe Sud-OuestóŒle-des-Soeurs LIB 52 9 17 12 8 2 LIB
Vimy LIB 47 11 9 27 4 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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