Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Monday, June 8, 2020 at 10:52 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Québec vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
35.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
39.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 39.4%
Change since last election: ▲5.2%
43.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
12.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
13.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 13.4%
Change since last election: ▼2.6%
14.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
9.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
10.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 10.8%
Change since last election: ▲0.1%
11.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
27.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.1%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 30.1%
Change since last election: ▼2.4%
33.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 4.5%
Change since last election: ▲0%
4.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
1.8%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 1.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.3%
2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Québec seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
43
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 43
Change since last election: ▲8
49 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▼2
15 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
15 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
24
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 24
Change since last election: ▼8
37 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Québec riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 32 14 13 34 4 2 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 28 13 11 44 4 1 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 57 5 12 19 6 1 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 53 9 8 26 4 1 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 43 10 8 33 5 1 LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 38 5 8 47 2 0 LEANS BQ
Beauce CON 15 23 4 17 3 39 OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 25 27 6 35 3 4 LEANS BQ
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 32 24 10 29 4 2 LEANS LIB
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 21 14 6 55 3 1 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 20 48 5 21 3 2 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 21 5 15 54 5 1 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 16 9 38 36 0 1 LEANS NDP
Bourassa LIB 63 5 8 20 3 1 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 43 10 8 31 5 1 LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 59 9 10 17 5 1 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 25 36 8 25 4 2 LEANS CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 44 9 8 34 4 1 LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 19 37 7 32 3 1 LEANS CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 42 12 10 29 5 1 LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 58 8 12 15 6 2 LIB
Drummond BQ 21 14 17 43 4 1 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 48 6 5 37 3 1 LIB
Gatineau LIB 57 8 11 19 4 1 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 43 3 18 35 0 1 LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 64 8 8 17 3 1 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 59 7 14 12 7 1 LIB
Joliette BQ 26 7 5 56 4 1 BQ
Jonquière BQ 15 24 25 33 2 1 LEANS BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 34 6 11 45 4 1 BQ
La Prairie BQ 40 7 8 39 4 1 TOSS-UP
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 44 17 0 34 2 4 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 63 13 12 3 7 2 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 48 5 17 21 7 2 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 37 6 7 45 5 1 LEANS BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 61 1 17 16 2 1 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 54 14 9 18 4 1 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 21 43 7 23 3 3 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 44 6 11 33 6 1 LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 40 5 4 36 15 1 LEANS LIB
Louis-Hébert LIB 46 15 8 25 4 2 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 24 42 7 21 3 2 CON
Manicouagan BQ 23 17 4 53 3 0 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 50 8 9 29 4 1 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 19 48 4 24 3 2 CON
Mirabel BQ 32 7 5 49 6 1 BQ
Montarville BQ 39 5 9 41 5 1 LEANS BQ
Montcalm BQ 24 7 7 56 5 1 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 15 36 7 38 2 1 LEANS BQ
Mount Royal LIB 63 2 18 11 6 1 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 61 9 15 3 11 1 LIB
Outremont LIB 51 5 20 12 12 1 LIB
Papineau LIB 56 3 19 14 7 2 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 34 6 9 50 0 0 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 62 15 10 6 5 2 LIB
Pontiac LIB 54 14 11 14 6 1 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 24 42 6 22 4 2 CON
Québec LIB 46 10 7 30 6 2 LIB
Repentigny BQ 31 6 7 51 4 1 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 19 48 1 26 6 1 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 25 10 23 39 2 1 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 45 7 5 33 5 5 LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 26 10 7 50 6 1 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 27 1 49 16 6 1 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 25 12 19 40 4 0 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 34 6 6 43 5 5 LEANS BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 64 15 10 6 5 1 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 67 10 7 8 3 7 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 45 14 6 31 3 1 LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 33 8 8 46 3 1 BQ
Shefford BQ 41 10 6 37 5 1 LEANS LIB
Sherbrooke LIB 34 9 29 23 5 1 LEANS LIB
Terrebonne BQ 33 6 8 48 4 1 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 40 7 8 40 5 1 TOSS-UP
Trois-Rivières BQ 29 25 16 27 2 1 LEANS LIB
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 52 9 11 22 5 1 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 58 7 16 11 7 1 LIB
Vimy LIB 53 9 9 25 4 1 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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