Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 19:08 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Québec vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
37.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
41.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 41.3%
Change since last election: ▲7.1%
45.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
10.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
11.8%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 11.8%
Change since last election: ▼4.2%
13% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
8.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
9.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 9.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.9%
10.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
28.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.9%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 31.9%
Change since last election: ▼0.6%
35.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
2.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.3%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 3.3%
Change since last election: ▼1.2%
3.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
2.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Québec seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
42
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 42
Change since last election: ▲7
51 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
7
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 7
Change since last election: ▼3
12 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5
37 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Québec riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ 34 13 12 37 3 2 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ 30 11 10 46 3 1 BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 60 4 10 21 5 1 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 55 7 7 27 3 1 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 45 8 7 35 4 1 LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ 39 4 7 49 1 0 BQ
Beauce CON 17 20 3 18 2 40 OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix BQ 26 25 5 38 2 4 BQ
Beauport—Limoilou BQ 34 22 9 31 3 2 LEANS LIB
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 23 12 5 57 2 1 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 22 46 5 23 2 2 CON
Beloeil—Chambly BQ 22 4 14 57 4 1 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé BQ 18 7 36 38 0 1 LEANS BQ
Bourassa LIB 64 4 7 21 2 1 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 45 9 7 33 4 1 LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 61 7 9 18 4 1 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 27 34 7 27 2 2 LEANS CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 45 8 7 36 3 2 LEANS LIB
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 21 34 6 35 2 1 TOSS-UP
Compton—Stanstead LIB 44 11 9 31 4 1 LIB
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 60 7 11 16 4 2 LIB
Drummond BQ 22 13 15 46 2 2 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 49 5 4 39 2 1 LIB
Gatineau LIB 59 7 10 20 3 1 LIB
Hochelaga LIB 44 2 16 36 0 1 LEANS LIB
Honoré-Mercier LIB 66 6 7 18 2 1 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 61 6 13 14 6 1 LIB
Joliette BQ 27 6 4 58 3 1 BQ
Jonquière BQ 17 22 24 36 1 1 BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 36 4 10 47 2 1 BQ
La Prairie BQ 42 6 7 41 3 1 TOSS-UP
Lac-Saint-Jean BQ 45 15 0 36 1 4 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 66 11 11 5 6 2 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 51 4 15 23 5 2 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle BQ 39 4 6 47 4 1 LEANS BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie LIB 63 1 16 18 1 1 LIB
Laval—Les Îles LIB 56 12 8 20 3 1 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 22 40 7 26 2 3 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 46 4 9 35 4 1 LIB
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ 42 4 3 39 12 1 LEANS LIB
Louis-Hébert LIB 48 13 7 27 3 2 LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 27 40 6 23 2 2 CON
Manicouagan BQ 24 15 3 55 2 0 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 52 6 8 31 3 1 LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 21 45 4 26 2 2 CON
Mirabel BQ 33 6 4 51 4 1 BQ
Montarville BQ 41 4 8 43 4 1 TOSS-UP
Montcalm BQ 25 6 6 58 3 1 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 17 33 7 41 1 1 LEANS BQ
Mount Royal LIB 65 1 16 12 4 1 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 64 8 14 4 9 1 LIB
Outremont LIB 54 4 19 13 10 1 LIB
Papineau LIB 58 1 18 15 6 2 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 35 5 8 52 0 0 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 64 13 9 7 4 2 LIB
Pontiac LIB 57 13 10 15 5 1 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 26 39 5 24 3 3 CON
Québec LIB 48 9 6 31 4 2 LIB
Repentigny BQ 33 4 6 53 2 1 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 21 45 0 29 4 1 CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques BQ 27 9 21 42 1 1 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ 47 5 4 35 4 5 LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 28 8 6 52 4 1 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 29 1 46 18 5 1 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ 27 11 18 42 3 1 BQ
Saint-Jean BQ 36 5 6 45 4 5 LEANS BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 67 13 9 7 4 1 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 69 8 6 9 2 7 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 47 12 5 33 2 1 LIB
Salaberry—Suroît BQ 35 7 7 48 2 1 BQ
Shefford BQ 43 9 6 39 3 1 LEANS LIB
Sherbrooke LIB 36 7 27 25 3 1 LEANS LIB
Terrebonne BQ 34 5 7 50 3 1 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville BQ 41 6 7 42 3 1 TOSS-UP
Trois-Rivières BQ 31 23 15 29 1 1 LEANS LIB
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 55 8 10 23 4 1 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 61 5 15 12 6 1 LIB
Vimy LIB 55 7 8 26 3 1 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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