Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Prairies

last updated: Sunday, August 16 at 00:04 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected prairies vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
25.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 28.3%
Change since last election: ▲9.2%
31.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
41% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
45.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 45.6%
Change since last election: ▼9.1%
50.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
14.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 16.5%
Change since last election: ▼3.6%
18.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.2%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5.2%
Change since last election: ▲1.4%
5.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.4%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.4%
Change since last election: ▲2.1%
4.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected prairies seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▲4
15 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
11 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
17
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 17
Change since last election: ▼4
24 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲0
9 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Manitoba riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Brandon—Souris CON 17 62 7 0 8 6 CON
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley CON 36 30 8 0 5 20 LEANS LIB
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP 32 18 43 0 5 3 NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CON 19 63 8 0 6 4 CON
Elmwood—Transcona NDP 27 31 34 0 4 3 LEANS NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul CON 36 44 12 0 4 4 LEANS CON
Portage—Lisgar CON 13 72 3 0 6 7 CON
Provencher CON 20 63 8 0 5 4 CON
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital LIB 52 29 10 0 6 3 LIB
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CON 19 56 13 0 8 4 CON
Winnipeg Centre NDP 45 16 29 0 6 5 LIB
Winnipeg North LIB 51 21 20 0 3 5 LIB
Winnipeg South LIB 50 35 9 0 4 2 LIB
Winnipeg South Centre LIB 55 26 11 0 7 2 LIB

Saskatchewan riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Battlefords—Lloydminster CON 16 65 12 0 4 4 CON
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CON 13 66 13 0 4 4 CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands CON 15 66 10 0 4 6 CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River CON 41 28 25 0 4 2 LIB
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CON 13 59 18 0 5 5 CON
Prince Albert CON 21 53 18 0 4 4 CON
Regina—Lewvan CON 24 39 27 0 7 3 CON
Regina—Qu'Appelle CON 22 48 20 0 6 4 CON
Regina—Wascana CON 50 32 11 0 4 2 LIB
Saskatoon West CON 16 36 40 0 5 4 LEANS NDP
Saskatoon—Grasswood CON 30 37 26 0 5 3 LEANS CON
Saskatoon—University CON 24 39 28 0 5 4 LEANS CON
Souris—Moose Mountain CON 15 69 8 0 4 4 CON
Yorkton—Melville CON 15 63 12 0 5 4 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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