last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

[dylan_tabs style=”minimal-tabs” alignment=”center”]
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected prairies vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
21.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
24.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 24.3%
Change since last election: ▲5.2%
26.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
41.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
46.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 46.5%
Change since last election: ▼8.1%
51.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
19.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
22%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 22%
Change since last election: ▲1.9%
24.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
2.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 2.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.2%
2.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
4.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.6%
Change since last election: ▲2.3%
5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected prairies seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▲4
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
12 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
17
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 17
Change since last election: ▼4
24 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲0
11 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”Manitoba riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Brandon—Souris CON 15 62 13 0 5 5 CON
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley CON 34 28 17 0 3 18 LEANS LIB
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP 27 15 54 0 2 2 NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CON 17 61 15 0 4 4 CON
Elmwood—Transcona NDP 23 28 45 0 2 3 NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul CON 33 42 19 0 2 3 LEANS CON
Portage—Lisgar CON 11 68 11 0 3 6 CON
Provencher CON 17 61 15 0 3 4 CON
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital LIB 49 27 18 0 4 2 LIB
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CON 17 54 22 0 4 3 CON
Winnipeg Centre NDP 40 14 39 0 3 4 LEANS LIB
Winnipeg North LIB 47 18 29 0 1 4 LIB
Winnipeg South LIB 48 33 16 0 2 2 LIB
Winnipeg South Centre LIB 51 24 18 0 4 2 LIB
[dylan_page_title title=”Saskatchewan riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Battlefords—Lloydminster CON 12 68 14 0 1 4 CON
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CON 9 69 15 0 2 5 CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands CON 10 70 12 0 2 7 CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River CON 35 32 30 0 1 3 LEANS LIB
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CON 10 62 20 0 2 6 CON
Prince Albert CON 16 56 21 0 2 5 CON
Regina—Lewvan CON 19 43 30 0 4 4 CON
Regina—Qu'Appelle CON 17 52 23 0 3 5 CON
Regina—Wascana CON 43 38 14 0 2 3 LEANS LIB
Saskatoon West CON 11 38 44 0 2 4 LEANS NDP
Saskatoon—Grasswood CON 24 41 29 0 2 4 CON
Saskatoon—University CON 19 43 31 0 3 5 CON
Souris—Moose Mountain CON 10 74 10 0 1 5 CON
Yorkton—Melville CON 11 67 15 0 2 6 CON
[dylan_page_title title=”Regional projections & riding-level data” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[/dylan_tabs]

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics