Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 19:08 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
41% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
45.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 45.6%
Change since last election: ▲4.1%
50.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
27.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 27.5%
Change since last election: ▼5.7%
30.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.4%
Change since last election: ▲1.6%
20.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
5.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.8%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.4%
6.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.6%
Change since last election: ▲0.3%
2.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
73 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
89
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 89
Change since last election: ▲10
98 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
16 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼9
38 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
5
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 5
Change since last election: ▼1
15 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 63 17 15 0 3 3 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 26 22 44 0 5 3 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 42 37 16 0 3 2 LEANS LIB
Barrie—Innisfil CON 32 39 19 0 9 2 LEANS CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 35 33 17 0 12 2 TOSS-UP
Bay of Quinte LIB 42 31 20 0 6 2 LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 60 11 23 0 5 2 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 50 21 23 0 4 2 LIB
Brampton East LIB 51 19 28 0 1 1 LIB
Brampton North LIB 57 21 19 0 2 1 LIB
Brampton South LIB 52 23 20 0 4 2 LIB
Brampton West LIB 56 20 20 0 2 2 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 43 36 9 0 6 6 LEANS LIB
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 33 41 14 0 9 3 LEANS CON
Burlington LIB 55 26 12 0 6 1 LIB
Cambridge LIB 42 24 23 0 7 4 LIB
Carleton CON 33 50 11 0 4 1 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 34 51 12 0 0 3 CON
Davenport LIB 49 6 39 0 4 2 LIB
Don Valley East LIB 65 17 13 0 3 1 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 54 30 12 0 3 1 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 64 21 9 0 4 1 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 35 33 19 0 10 3 LEANS LIB
Durham CON 35 37 20 0 5 2 LEANS CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 60 25 10 0 3 1 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 25 45 22 0 5 3 CON
Essex CON 21 38 37 0 3 2 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 56 29 10 0 4 2 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 65 17 12 0 2 3 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 58 22 14 0 5 2 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 38 34 20 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 51 31 12 0 3 3 LIB
Guelph LIB 42 14 15 0 26 3 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 27 45 14 0 8 5 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 30 42 18 0 8 2 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 28 9 53 0 7 3 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 41 21 30 0 5 2 LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 31 19 41 0 5 3 NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 50 21 20 0 7 2 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 42 34 16 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 63 11 23 0 2 2 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 35 45 14 0 4 2 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 46 31 15 0 6 2 LIB
Kenora CON 36 29 27 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Kingston and the Islands LIB 51 14 25 0 8 3 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 49 37 9 0 4 1 LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 40 17 8 0 32 2 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 43 28 16 0 10 3 LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 44 38 7 0 10 2 LEANS LIB
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 30 42 19 0 5 4 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 27 43 18 0 11 2 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 29 45 16 0 8 2 CON
London North Centre LIB 45 18 27 0 7 3 LIB
London West LIB 47 22 23 0 5 2 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 30 18 45 0 4 3 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 42 18 4 0 2 34 LEANS LIB
Markham—Thornhill LIB 57 30 9 0 2 2 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 41 44 9 0 4 2 LEANS CON
Milton LIB 60 29 5 0 5 2 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 62 22 11 0 2 2 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 56 28 12 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 57 28 11 0 3 1 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 52 31 11 0 4 2 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 61 20 14 0 2 2 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 57 26 12 0 4 2 LIB
Nepean LIB 49 28 16 0 6 1 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 46 33 13 0 5 3 LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 49 28 16 0 5 2 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 37 31 16 0 5 11 LEANS LIB
Niagara West CON 37 38 15 0 6 4 TOSS-UP
Nickel Belt LIB 40 16 37 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 44 23 22 0 6 5 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 38 35 17 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Oakville LIB 51 33 9 0 6 2 LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 55 30 10 0 4 1 LIB
Orléans LIB 57 23 15 0 4 1 LIB
Oshawa CON 38 41 14 0 4 2 LEANS CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 56 12 22 0 7 3 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 56 19 18 0 5 2 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 51 20 21 0 5 2 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 53 12 25 0 7 3 LIB
Oxford CON 21 45 22 0 7 5 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 49 8 35 0 6 2 LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 33 37 14 0 16 1 LEANS CON
Perth—Wellington CON 32 40 17 0 8 3 LEANS CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 42 29 21 0 7 2 LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 54 25 14 0 5 2 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 21 55 18 0 5 1 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 48 37 11 0 3 1 LIB
Sarnia—Lambton CON 25 43 25 0 4 4 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 41 26 27 0 4 2 LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 60 15 13 0 3 8 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 57 24 16 0 2 1 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 61 16 17 0 5 2 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 57 29 11 0 2 1 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 64 17 14 0 2 3 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 65 16 13 0 4 2 LIB
Simcoe North CON 34 36 16 0 12 3 LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 35 38 13 0 12 2 LEANS CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 61 12 22 0 4 1 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 42 26 25 0 6 1 LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 28 50 16 0 3 2 CON
Sudbury LIB 43 15 33 0 6 3 LIB
Thornhill CON 39 49 8 0 3 1 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 40 22 32 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 45 20 25 0 8 2 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 27 23 43 0 3 4 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 60 7 25 0 7 1 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 50 7 35 0 6 2 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 60 15 17 0 6 2 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 53 11 26 0 8 2 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 54 32 10 0 2 2 LIB
Waterloo LIB 56 13 18 0 12 2 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 31 42 11 0 13 2 CON
Whitby LIB 50 28 16 0 5 1 LIB
Willowdale LIB 52 30 12 0 3 2 LIB
Windsor West NDP 52 15 30 0 0 2 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 51 22 17 0 3 6 LIB
York Centre LIB 59 28 12 0 1 0 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 64 13 19 0 3 2 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 29 41 18 0 8 4 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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