Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Friday, February 14, 2020 at 20:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
36.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
40.7%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 40.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
44.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.5%
Change since last election: ▼2.7%
33.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.7%
20.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
7.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.9%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.9%
Change since last election: ▲1.7%
8.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.4%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.4%
Change since last election: ▲0.1%
2.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
61 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
77
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 77
Change since last election: ▼2
87 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
25 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲1
47 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
3 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
6
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▲0
19 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 58 20 15 0 5 3 LIB
AlgomaóManitoulinóKapuskasing NDP 22 25 44 0 6 2 NDP
AuroraóOak RidgesóRichmond Hill CON 37 40 16 0 5 2 LEANS CON
BarrieóInnisfil CON 27 42 18 0 11 2 CON
BarrieóSpringwateróOro-Medonte CON 30 36 17 0 15 2 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte LIB 37 34 20 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
BeachesóEast York LIB 55 13 23 0 7 1 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 45 24 23 0 6 2 LIB
Brampton East LIB 46 22 29 0 2 1 LIB
Brampton North LIB 52 23 19 0 4 1 LIB
Brampton South LIB 47 26 20 0 5 2 LIB
Brampton West LIB 52 23 20 0 3 2 LIB
BrantfordóBrant CON 38 40 9 0 8 6 LEANS CON
BruceóGreyóOwen Sound CON 28 44 13 0 12 3 CON
Burlington LIB 50 29 12 0 8 1 LIB
Cambridge LIB 37 27 23 0 9 3 LEANS LIB
Carleton CON 28 54 11 0 6 1 CON
Chatham-KentóLeamington CON 30 55 13 0 0 3 CON
Davenport LIB 45 8 39 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Don Valley East LIB 61 20 13 0 5 1 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 49 33 12 0 5 1 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 60 24 9 0 5 1 LIB
DufferinóCaledon CON 30 35 19 0 13 3 LEANS CON
Durham CON 30 40 20 0 7 2 CON
EglintonóLawrence LIB 55 29 11 0 5 1 LIB
ElginóMiddlesexóLondon CON 20 48 22 0 7 3 CON
Essex CON 17 41 36 0 4 2 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 50 32 10 0 6 2 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 61 20 13 0 4 3 LIB
EtobicokeóLakeshore LIB 53 24 14 0 7 1 LIB
FlamboroughóGlanbrook CON 33 37 20 0 8 1 LEANS CON
GlengarryóPrescottóRussell LIB 46 35 12 0 4 3 LIB
Guelph LIB 37 16 14 0 30 3 LEANS LIB
HaldimandóNorfolk CON 23 48 14 0 11 5 CON
HaliburtonóKawartha LakesóBrock CON 26 45 17 0 10 2 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 24 11 53 0 9 3 NDP
Hamilton EastóStoney Creek LIB 37 24 30 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 27 22 41 0 7 2 NDP
Hamilton WestóAncasteróDundas LIB 45 24 20 0 10 1 LIB
HastingsóLennox and Addington CON 37 38 16 0 7 2 TOSS-UP
Humber RiveróBlack Creek LIB 58 14 23 0 3 1 LIB
HuronóBruce CON 31 48 14 0 5 2 CON
KanataóCarleton LIB 41 34 15 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
Kenora CON 31 32 27 0 7 2 TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands LIB 46 16 25 0 10 2 LIB
KingóVaughan LIB 44 41 9 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 34 19 8 0 37 2 LEANS GRN
Kitchener SouthóHespeler LIB 38 30 16 0 13 2 LEANS LIB
KitcheneróConestoga LIB 39 41 7 0 13 1 LEANS CON
LambtonóKentóMiddlesex CON 25 45 19 0 7 4 CON
LanarkóFrontenacóKingston CON 22 46 17 0 13 2 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 24 48 16 0 10 2 CON
London North Centre LIB 40 21 27 0 9 3 LIB
London West LIB 42 25 23 0 7 2 LIB
LondonóFanshawe NDP 26 21 45 0 6 2 NDP
MarkhamóStouffville LIB 38 21 4 0 4 33 LEANS LIB
MarkhamóThornhill LIB 52 33 9 0 4 1 LIB
MarkhamóUnionville CON 36 47 9 0 6 2 CON
Milton LIB 55 32 5 0 6 2 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 57 25 12 0 4 2 LIB
Mississauga EastóCooksville LIB 51 31 12 0 4 1 LIB
MississaugaóErin Mills LIB 52 31 11 0 5 1 LIB
MississaugaóLakeshore LIB 47 35 11 0 6 1 LIB
MississaugaóMalton LIB 57 24 14 0 4 1 LIB
MississaugaóStreetsville LIB 52 29 12 0 6 2 LIB
Nepean LIB 44 31 16 0 8 1 LIB
NewmarketóAurora LIB 41 36 13 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 44 31 16 0 7 2 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 33 34 16 0 7 10 TOSS-UP
Niagara West CON 32 41 15 0 8 3 LEANS CON
Nickel Belt LIB 36 18 37 0 7 2 LEANS NDP
NipissingóTimiskaming LIB 39 26 22 0 8 5 LIB
NorthumberlandóPeterborough South CON 33 38 17 0 10 2 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 45 36 9 0 8 1 LEANS LIB
Oakville NorthóBurlington LIB 50 33 11 0 6 1 LIB
OrlÈans LIB 52 26 15 0 6 1 LIB
Oshawa CON 34 44 14 0 6 2 CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 51 15 22 0 9 2 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 51 22 18 0 8 1 LIB
Ottawa WestóNepean LIB 46 23 21 0 8 2 LIB
OttawaóVanier LIB 48 15 25 0 9 3 LIB
Oxford CON 17 48 22 0 9 4 CON
ParkdaleóHigh Park LIB 44 11 35 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
Parry SoundóMuskoka CON 28 39 13 0 19 1 CON
PerthóWellington CON 27 42 17 0 10 3 CON
PeterboroughóKawartha LIB 37 32 21 0 9 2 LEANS LIB
PickeringóUxbridge LIB 49 28 14 0 7 2 LIB
RenfrewóNipissingóPembroke CON 17 57 18 0 7 1 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 43 40 11 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
SarniaóLambton CON 21 45 25 0 6 4 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 36 29 27 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 56 18 14 0 5 8 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 52 28 16 0 3 1 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 56 19 17 0 7 2 LIB
ScarboroughóAgincourt LIB 52 32 11 0 4 1 LIB
ScarboroughóGuildwood LIB 59 20 14 0 4 2 LIB
ScarboroughóRouge Park LIB 60 19 13 0 6 2 LIB
Simcoe North CON 29 38 16 0 14 2 LEANS CON
SimcoeóGrey CON 29 41 13 0 15 2 CON
SpadinaóFort York LIB 56 14 22 0 6 1 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 38 28 25 0 8 1 LEANS LIB
StormontóDundasóSouth Glengarry CON 23 54 16 0 5 2 CON
Sudbury LIB 38 18 33 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Thornhill CON 34 53 8 0 4 0 CON
Thunder BayóRainy River LIB 36 25 32 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Thunder BayóSuperior North LIB 40 23 25 0 10 2 LIB
TimminsóJames Bay NDP 24 26 43 0 4 3 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 55 10 26 0 9 1 LIB
TorontoóDanforth LIB 46 9 35 0 9 2 LIB
TorontoóSt. Paul's LIB 55 18 18 0 8 1 LIB
UniversityóRosedale LIB 48 14 26 0 10 2 LIB
VaughanóWoodbridge LIB 50 35 10 0 4 2 LIB
Waterloo LIB 50 15 18 0 15 2 LIB
WellingtonóHalton Hills CON 26 45 11 0 16 2 CON
Whitby LIB 45 31 16 0 7 1 LIB
Willowdale LIB 47 34 12 0 5 2 LIB
Windsor West NDP 49 18 31 0 0 2 LIB
WindsoróTecumseh LIB 46 25 18 0 5 6 LIB
York Centre LIB 54 32 12 0 2 0 LIB
York SouthóWeston LIB 59 16 19 0 5 1 LIB
YorkóSimcoe CON 24 44 18 0 11 4 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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