Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

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Vote projections

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PARTY	VOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal	37.3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 41.4% Most likely vote total: 41.4% Change since last election: ▼0.1% 45.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	27.6% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 30.6% Most likely vote total: 30.6% Change since last election: ▼2.6% 33.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	16.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.4% Most likely vote total: 18.4% Change since last election: ▲1.6% 20.2% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	5.4% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6% Most likely vote total: 6% Change since last election: ▼0.2% 6.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	3.2% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.6% Most likely vote total: 3.6% Change since last election: ▲1.3% 3.9% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval

Seat projections

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PARTY	SEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal	62 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 77 Most likely seat total: 77 Change since last election: ▼2 87 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	24 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 37 Most likely seat total: 37 Change since last election: ▲1 47 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	2 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 6 Most likely seat total: 6 Change since last election: ▲0 18 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1 Most likely seat total: 1 Change since last election: ▲1 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines

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Riding-by-riding vote projection

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Riding name:	Incumbent	Lib.	Con.	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Ajax	LIB	59	20	15	3	4	LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	NDP	23	25	44	5	4	NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	CON	38	40	16	4	3	LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil	CON	28	42	18	9	3	CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	CON	31	37	17	12	3	LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte	LIB	38	34	20	6	3	LEANS LIB
Beaches—East York	LIB	56	13	23	5	2	LIB
Brampton Centre	LIB	46	24	23	4	3	LIB
Brampton East	LIB	47	21	29	1	2	LIB
Brampton North	LIB	53	24	19	3	2	LIB
Brampton South	LIB	48	26	20	4	3	LIB
Brampton West	LIB	52	23	20	2	3	LIB
Brantford—Brant	CON	38	39	9	6	8	TOSS-UP
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	CON	29	44	14	9	4	CON
Burlington	LIB	51	29	12	6	2	LIB
Cambridge	LIB	38	27	23	7	5	LIB
Carleton	CON	29	54	11	4	2	CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington	CON	30	54	12	0	4	CON
Davenport	LIB	45	8	39	4	2	LEANS LIB
Don Valley East	LIB	61	20	13	3	2	LIB
Don Valley North	LIB	50	33	12	4	2	LIB
Don Valley West	LIB	60	24	9	4	2	LIB
Dufferin—Caledon	CON	31	35	19	10	4	LEANS CON
Durham	CON	31	40	20	6	3	LEANS CON
Eglinton—Lawrence	LIB	55	29	10	4	2	LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London	CON	21	48	22	5	4	CON
Essex	CON	18	41	36	3	3	LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre	LIB	51	32	10	4	3	LIB
Etobicoke North	LIB	61	20	13	2	4	LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	LIB	54	25	14	5	2	LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook	CON	34	37	20	6	2	LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	LIB	46	35	12	3	4	LIB
Guelph	LIB	39	16	15	27	4	LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk	CON	23	48	14	8	6	CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	CON	26	46	17	8	3	CON
Hamilton Centre	NDP	25	11	53	7	4	NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	LIB	38	24	30	5	3	LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain	NDP	28	22	41	6	4	NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	LIB	46	24	20	7	3	LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington	CON	38	38	15	5	4	TOSS-UP
Humber River—Black Creek	LIB	59	14	23	2	2	LIB
Huron—Bruce	CON	31	48	14	4	3	CON
Kanata—Carleton	LIB	42	34	15	6	2	LEANS LIB
Kenora	CON	32	32	27	5	3	TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands	LIB	47	16	25	8	4	LIB
King—Vaughan	LIB	44	41	9	4	2	LEANS LIB
Kitchener Centre	LIB	36	19	8	33	3	LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler	LIB	39	31	16	11	4	LEANS LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga	LIB	40	41	7	10	3	LEANS CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	CON	26	45	18	5	5	CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston	CON	23	46	18	11	3	CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes	CON	25	49	16	8	3	CON
London North Centre	LIB	41	21	27	7	4	LIB
London West	LIB	42	25	23	5	3	LIB
London—Fanshawe	NDP	27	21	44	4	4	NDP
Markham—Stouffville	LIB	36	20	3	2	39	LEANS OTH
Markham—Thornhill	LIB	53	33	9	2	2	LIB
Markham—Unionville	CON	37	47	9	4	3	CON
Milton	LIB	56	32	5	5	3	LIB
Mississauga Centre	LIB	57	25	12	3	3	LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville	LIB	52	31	12	3	2	LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills	LIB	52	31	11	3	2	LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore	LIB	48	35	11	4	2	LIB
Mississauga—Malton	LIB	57	23	14	3	3	LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville	LIB	52	29	12	4	2	LIB
Nepean	LIB	45	31	16	6	2	LIB
Newmarket—Aurora	LIB	42	37	13	5	4	LEANS LIB
Niagara Centre	LIB	45	31	16	5	3	LIB
Niagara Falls	CON	33	34	16	5	12	TOSS-UP
Niagara West	CON	33	42	14	6	5	LEANS CON
Nickel Belt	LIB	36	18	37	5	3	TOSS-UP
Nipissing—Timiskaming	LIB	39	26	22	6	7	LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South	CON	34	38	17	8	3	LEANS CON
Oakville	LIB	46	36	9	6	2	LIB
Oakville North—Burlington	LIB	50	34	10	4	2	LIB
Orléans	LIB	53	26	15	4	2	LIB
Oshawa	CON	34	45	14	4	3	CON
Ottawa Centre	LIB	52	15	22	7	4	LIB
Ottawa South	LIB	52	22	18	6	3	LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean	LIB	47	23	21	6	3	LIB
Ottawa—Vanier	LIB	49	15	25	7	4	LIB
Oxford	CON	18	48	22	7	6	CON
Parkdale—High Park	LIB	46	11	35	6	3	LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka	CON	29	40	14	16	2	CON
Perth—Wellington	CON	28	43	17	8	4	CON
Peterborough—Kawartha	LIB	38	32	21	7	3	LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge	LIB	50	28	14	5	3	LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	CON	18	57	18	5	1	CON
Richmond Hill	LIB	44	40	11	3	2	LEANS LIB
Sarnia—Lambton	CON	21	46	25	4	5	CON
Sault Ste. Marie	LIB	37	29	27	4	3	LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre	LIB	56	18	13	3	10	LIB
Scarborough North	LIB	53	28	16	2	2	LIB
Scarborough Southwest	LIB	57	18	17	5	3	LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt	LIB	53	33	11	2	2	LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood	LIB	60	20	14	3	3	LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park	LIB	61	19	13	4	3	LIB
Simcoe North	CON	30	38	16	12	4	LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey	CON	30	42	13	12	3	CON
Spadina—Fort York	LIB	57	15	22	5	2	LIB
St. Catharines	LIB	38	29	25	6	2	LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	CON	24	54	16	3	3	CON
Sudbury	LIB	39	18	32	6	4	LEANS LIB
Thornhill	CON	34	53	8	3	1	CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	LIB	36	25	32	4	3	LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North	LIB	41	23	25	8	3	LIB
Timmins—James Bay	NDP	24	26	43	3	5	NDP
Toronto Centre	LIB	56	10	26	7	2	LIB
Toronto—Danforth	LIB	47	9	35	6	3	LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's	LIB	56	18	18	6	2	LIB
University—Rosedale	LIB	49	14	26	8	2	LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge	LIB	50	35	10	2	3	LIB
Waterloo	LIB	52	15	18	12	3	LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills	CON	27	46	11	13	3	CON
Whitby	LIB	45	31	16	5	2	LIB
Willowdale	LIB	48	34	12	3	3	LIB
Windsor West	NDP	49	18	31	0	3	LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh	LIB	47	25	17	4	8	LIB
York Centre	LIB	55	32	12	1	1	LIB
York South—Weston	LIB	60	16	19	3	2	LIB
York—Simcoe	CON	25	44	18	8	5	CON