Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
36% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
40%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 40%
Change since last election: ▼1.5%
44% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 33%
Change since last election: ▼0.2%
36.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.8%
Change since last election: ▲2%
20.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
5.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.1%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.1%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
6.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2%
Change since last election: ▼0.3%
2.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
57 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
75
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 75
Change since last election: ▼4
82 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
40
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 40
Change since last election: ▲4
53 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
3 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
6
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▲0
18 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 57 22 15 0 3 2 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 22 27 45 0 5 2 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 36 42 16 0 4 2 LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil CON 27 45 18 0 9 1 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 30 39 18 0 13 1 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte LIB 36 36 20 0 6 1 TOSS-UP
Beaches—East York LIB 55 15 24 0 5 1 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 44 26 23 0 4 2 LIB
Brampton East LIB 46 24 29 0 1 1 LIB
Brampton North LIB 52 26 19 0 3 1 LIB
Brampton South LIB 46 28 21 0 4 1 LIB
Brampton West LIB 51 25 21 0 2 1 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 37 42 9 0 6 5 LEANS CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 27 47 14 0 9 3 CON
Burlington LIB 49 31 13 0 6 1 LIB
Cambridge LIB 36 29 24 0 7 3 LEANS LIB
Carleton CON 27 57 11 0 4 1 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 29 56 13 0 0 2 CON
Davenport LIB 44 10 40 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Don Valley East LIB 60 22 13 0 4 1 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 48 35 12 0 4 1 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 59 27 10 0 4 1 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 30 38 19 0 11 2 LEANS CON
Durham CON 30 43 20 0 6 2 CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 54 31 11 0 4 1 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 20 50 22 0 6 2 CON
Essex CON 16 44 36 0 3 1 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 49 34 10 0 4 1 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 60 22 13 0 3 3 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 52 27 14 0 6 1 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 33 40 21 0 6 1 LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 45 37 13 0 3 2 LEANS LIB
Guelph LIB 37 19 15 0 27 2 LEANS LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 22 51 14 0 8 5 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 25 48 18 0 8 2 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 24 13 54 0 7 2 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 36 26 31 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 26 24 42 0 6 2 NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 45 26 20 0 8 1 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 37 40 16 0 6 2 LEANS CON
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 57 16 24 0 2 1 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 30 51 14 0 4 1 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 40 36 16 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Kenora CON 31 35 27 0 6 2 LEANS CON
Kingston and the Islands LIB 46 18 26 0 8 2 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 43 43 9 0 4 1 TOSS-UP
Kitchener Centre LIB 35 21 8 0 33 2 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 38 33 16 0 11 2 LEANS LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 38 44 7 0 10 1 LEANS CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 25 48 19 0 6 3 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 21 49 18 0 11 1 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 23 51 16 0 8 1 CON
London North Centre LIB 40 23 27 0 8 2 LIB
London West LIB 41 28 24 0 6 2 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 25 23 45 0 5 2 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 39 24 4 0 3 31 LEANS LIB
Markham—Thornhill LIB 51 36 10 0 2 1 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 35 50 9 0 4 1 CON
Milton LIB 55 34 5 0 5 1 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 56 27 12 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 51 34 12 0 3 1 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 51 34 11 0 3 1 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 46 37 11 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 56 26 15 0 3 1 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 51 31 13 0 4 1 LIB
Nepean LIB 43 33 17 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 40 39 13 0 5 2 TOSS-UP
Niagara Centre LIB 43 34 17 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Niagara Falls CON 32 37 17 0 5 10 LEANS CON
Niagara West CON 32 44 15 0 6 3 CON
Nickel Belt LIB 35 20 38 0 5 2 LEANS NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 38 28 23 0 6 5 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 33 40 17 0 8 2 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 45 39 9 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 49 36 11 0 4 1 LIB
Orléans LIB 51 28 15 0 5 1 LIB
Oshawa CON 33 47 14 0 4 2 CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 51 17 23 0 7 2 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 51 24 18 0 6 1 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 46 25 21 0 6 2 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 48 17 26 0 7 2 LIB
Oxford CON 17 51 22 0 7 4 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 44 13 36 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 28 42 14 0 16 0 CON
Perth—Wellington CON 26 45 18 0 9 2 CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 36 34 21 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 48 30 14 0 5 2 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 17 60 18 0 5 0 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 42 43 11 0 3 1 TOSS-UP
Sarnia—Lambton CON 20 48 25 0 4 3 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 36 31 28 0 4 1 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 55 20 14 0 4 7 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 51 30 16 0 2 1 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 55 21 18 0 5 1 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 51 35 11 0 2 1 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 58 22 15 0 3 2 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 60 21 14 0 4 1 LIB
Simcoe North CON 29 41 16 0 12 2 CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 29 44 13 0 12 2 CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 56 16 23 0 5 1 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 37 31 25 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 22 56 16 0 3 2 CON
Sudbury LIB 38 20 33 0 7 3 LEANS LIB
Thornhill CON 33 56 8 0 3 0 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 35 27 32 0 4 1 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 39 25 26 0 8 2 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 23 28 43 0 3 3 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 54 12 26 0 7 1 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 46 10 36 0 7 2 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 54 20 18 0 6 1 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 48 16 27 0 8 1 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 48 38 10 0 2 2 LIB
Waterloo LIB 50 18 18 0 13 1 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 26 48 11 0 13 2 CON
Whitby LIB 44 33 17 0 5 1 LIB
Willowdale LIB 46 36 12 0 4 1 LIB
Windsor West NDP 47 20 31 0 0 2 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 46 28 18 0 4 5 LIB
York Centre LIB 53 34 12 0 1 0 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 58 17 20 0 3 1 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 23 47 18 0 8 3 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!