Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario
last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 20:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected Ontario vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
36.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 40.7%
Most likely vote total: 40.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.8% 44.8%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
29.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 32.3%
Most likely vote total: 32.3%
Change since last election: ▼0.9% 35.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
17.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 19.4%
Most likely vote total: 19.4%
Change since last election: ▲2.6% 21.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
4.8%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5.4%
Most likely vote total: 5.4%
Change since last election: ▼0.8% 5.9%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 2.2%
Most likely vote total: 2.2%
Change since last election: ▼0.1% 2.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected Ontario seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
57 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 78
Most likely seat total: 78
Change since last election: ▼1 84 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
27 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 37
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲1 52 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
3 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 6
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▲0 19 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | LIB | 58 | 21 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | LIB |
| Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing | NDP | 22 | 26 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 2 | NDP |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | CON | 37 | 42 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Barrie—Innisfil | CON | 27 | 44 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 2 | CON |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | CON | 30 | 38 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Bay of Quinte | LIB | 37 | 36 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Beaches—East York | LIB | 56 | 14 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton Centre | LIB | 45 | 26 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Brampton East | LIB | 46 | 23 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton North | LIB | 52 | 25 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton South | LIB | 47 | 27 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton West | LIB | 52 | 24 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Brantford—Brant | CON | 38 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 6 | LEANS CON |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CON | 28 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 3 | CON |
| Burlington | LIB | 50 | 30 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Cambridge | LIB | 37 | 29 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Carleton | CON | 28 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | CON |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | CON | 29 | 55 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | CON |
| Davenport | LIB | 45 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Don Valley East | LIB | 61 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Don Valley North | LIB | 49 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Don Valley West | LIB | 60 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Dufferin—Caledon | CON | 30 | 37 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Durham | CON | 30 | 42 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 2 | CON |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | LIB | 55 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | CON | 20 | 50 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 2 | CON |
| Essex | CON | 17 | 43 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Etobicoke Centre | LIB | 50 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Etobicoke North | LIB | 61 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 3 | LIB |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | LIB | 53 | 26 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | CON | 33 | 39 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | LIB | 45 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Guelph | LIB | 38 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 26 | 3 | LIB |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | CON | 23 | 50 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 5 | CON |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | CON | 26 | 47 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 2 | CON |
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | 24 | 13 | 55 | 0 | 6 | 3 | NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | LIB | 37 | 26 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | 27 | 24 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 2 | NDP |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | LIB | 46 | 26 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | CON | 37 | 39 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Humber River—Black Creek | LIB | 58 | 15 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | LIB |
| Huron—Bruce | CON | 30 | 50 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 | CON |
| Kanata—Carleton | LIB | 41 | 35 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Kenora | CON | 31 | 34 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Kingston and the Islands | LIB | 46 | 17 | 27 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| King—Vaughan | LIB | 43 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
| Kitchener Centre | LIB | 36 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 31 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | LIB | 38 | 32 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | LIB | 39 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | CON | 25 | 47 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 3 | CON |
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | CON | 22 | 48 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 1 | CON |
| Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CON | 24 | 51 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 1 | CON |
| London North Centre | LIB | 40 | 22 | 28 | 0 | 7 | 3 | LIB |
| London West | LIB | 42 | 27 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | 26 | 22 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 2 | NDP |
| Markham—Stouffville | LIB | 39 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 32 | LEANS LIB |
| Markham—Thornhill | LIB | 52 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | LIB |
| Markham—Unionville | CON | 36 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 2 | CON |
| Milton | LIB | 55 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Mississauga Centre | LIB | 57 | 27 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | LIB | 51 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | LIB | 51 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | LIB | 47 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Malton | LIB | 57 | 25 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | LIB | 52 | 30 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Nepean | LIB | 44 | 32 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Newmarket—Aurora | LIB | 41 | 38 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Niagara Centre | LIB | 44 | 33 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Niagara Falls | CON | 33 | 36 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 10 | LEANS CON |
| Niagara West | CON | 32 | 43 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 3 | CON |
| Nickel Belt | LIB | 35 | 19 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
| Nipissing—Timiskaming | LIB | 39 | 28 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 5 | LIB |
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | CON | 33 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Oakville | LIB | 46 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Oakville North—Burlington | LIB | 50 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Orléans | LIB | 52 | 27 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Oshawa | CON | 33 | 46 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | CON |
| Ottawa Centre | LIB | 51 | 17 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Ottawa South | LIB | 51 | 24 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | LIB | 46 | 25 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 48 | 16 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Oxford | CON | 17 | 50 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 4 | CON |
| Parkdale—High Park | LIB | 44 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | CON | 29 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 0 | CON |
| Perth—Wellington | CON | 27 | 44 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 3 | CON |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | LIB | 37 | 34 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | LIB | 49 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | CON | 17 | 59 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 0 | CON |
| Richmond Hill | LIB | 43 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
| Sarnia—Lambton | CON | 21 | 47 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 3 | CON |
| Sault Ste. Marie | LIB | 36 | 30 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Scarborough Centre | LIB | 56 | 19 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 7 | LIB |
| Scarborough North | LIB | 52 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough Southwest | LIB | 56 | 20 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | LIB | 52 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | LIB | 59 | 22 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | LIB | 60 | 20 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Simcoe North | CON | 30 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 2 | CON |
| Simcoe—Grey | CON | 30 | 44 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 2 | CON |
| Spadina—Fort York | LIB | 56 | 16 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| St. Catharines | LIB | 38 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | CON | 23 | 55 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 2 | CON |
| Sudbury | LIB | 38 | 19 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Thornhill | CON | 34 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | CON |
| Thunder Bay—Rainy River | LIB | 36 | 27 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 40 | 24 | 27 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Timmins—James Bay | NDP | 23 | 27 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 3 | NDP |
| Toronto Centre | LIB | 55 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Toronto—Danforth | LIB | 46 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | LIB | 55 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| University—Rosedale | LIB | 49 | 15 | 28 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | LIB | 49 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | LIB |
| Waterloo | LIB | 51 | 17 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 2 | LIB |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | CON | 27 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 2 | CON |
| Whitby | LIB | 45 | 32 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Willowdale | LIB | 47 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Windsor West | NDP | 48 | 19 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | LIB |
| Windsor—Tecumseh | LIB | 46 | 27 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 5 | LIB |
| York Centre | LIB | 54 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LIB |
| York South—Weston | LIB | 59 | 17 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| York—Simcoe | CON | 24 | 46 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 4 | CON |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.