Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 20:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
36.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
40.7%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 40.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
44.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.3%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 32.3%
Change since last election: ▼0.9%
35.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
17.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
19.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 19.4%
Change since last election: ▲2.6%
21.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.4%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5.4%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
5.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.2%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
2.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
57 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
78
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 78
Change since last election: ▼1
84 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲1
52 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
3 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
6
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▲0
19 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 58 21 16 0 3 3 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 22 26 45 0 4 2 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 37 42 17 0 3 2 LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil CON 27 44 19 0 8 2 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 30 38 18 0 12 2 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte LIB 37 36 21 0 5 2 TOSS-UP
Beaches—East York LIB 56 14 24 0 5 1 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 45 26 24 0 3 2 LIB
Brampton East LIB 46 23 29 0 1 1 LIB
Brampton North LIB 52 25 20 0 2 1 LIB
Brampton South LIB 47 27 21 0 3 1 LIB
Brampton West LIB 52 24 21 0 2 2 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 38 42 9 0 5 6 LEANS CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 28 46 14 0 8 3 CON
Burlington LIB 50 30 13 0 5 1 LIB
Cambridge LIB 37 29 25 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Carleton CON 28 56 12 0 4 1 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 29 55 13 0 0 3 CON
Davenport LIB 45 9 41 0 4 1 LEANS LIB
Don Valley East LIB 61 21 14 0 3 1 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 49 35 13 0 3 1 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 60 26 10 0 3 1 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 30 37 20 0 10 3 LEANS CON
Durham CON 30 42 21 0 5 2 CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 55 30 11 0 3 1 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 20 50 23 0 5 2 CON
Essex CON 17 43 37 0 2 2 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 50 34 11 0 4 1 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 61 21 13 0 2 3 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 53 26 15 0 5 1 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 33 39 21 0 5 1 LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 45 36 13 0 2 3 LEANS LIB
Guelph LIB 38 18 16 0 26 3 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 23 50 15 0 8 5 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 26 47 18 0 7 2 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 24 13 55 0 6 3 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 37 26 31 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 27 24 43 0 5 2 NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 46 26 21 0 7 1 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 37 39 16 0 5 2 LEANS CON
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 58 15 24 0 1 1 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 30 50 15 0 3 2 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 41 35 16 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Kenora CON 31 34 28 0 5 2 LEANS CON
Kingston and the Islands LIB 46 17 27 0 7 2 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 43 43 10 0 3 1 TOSS-UP
Kitchener Centre LIB 36 21 9 0 31 2 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 38 32 17 0 10 2 LEANS LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 39 43 7 0 9 1 LEANS CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 25 47 20 0 5 3 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 22 48 19 0 10 1 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 24 51 17 0 7 1 CON
London North Centre LIB 40 22 28 0 7 3 LIB
London West LIB 42 27 24 0 5 2 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 26 22 46 0 4 2 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 39 23 4 0 2 32 LEANS LIB
Markham—Thornhill LIB 52 35 10 0 2 1 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 36 49 9 0 4 2 CON
Milton LIB 55 34 5 0 4 2 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 57 27 13 0 2 2 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 51 33 12 0 2 1 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 51 33 12 0 3 1 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 47 36 12 0 4 1 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 57 25 15 0 2 1 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 52 30 13 0 4 1 LIB
Nepean LIB 44 32 17 0 5 1 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 41 38 14 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 44 33 17 0 4 2 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 33 36 17 0 4 10 LEANS CON
Niagara West CON 32 43 15 0 6 3 CON
Nickel Belt LIB 35 19 39 0 4 2 LEANS NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 39 28 23 0 5 5 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 33 40 18 0 7 2 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 46 38 10 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 50 35 11 0 3 1 LIB
Orléans LIB 52 27 16 0 4 1 LIB
Oshawa CON 33 46 15 0 4 2 CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 51 17 23 0 7 2 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 51 24 19 0 5 1 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 46 25 22 0 5 2 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 48 16 27 0 6 2 LIB
Oxford CON 17 50 23 0 6 4 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 44 12 37 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 29 42 14 0 15 0 CON
Perth—Wellington CON 27 44 18 0 8 3 CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 37 34 22 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 49 30 15 0 5 2 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 17 59 19 0 5 0 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 43 42 11 0 3 1 TOSS-UP
Sarnia—Lambton CON 21 47 26 0 3 3 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 36 30 28 0 3 1 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 56 19 15 0 3 7 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 52 29 17 0 1 1 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 56 20 18 0 4 1 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 52 34 12 0 2 1 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 59 22 15 0 2 2 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 60 20 14 0 4 1 LIB
Simcoe North CON 30 40 17 0 11 2 CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 30 44 14 0 11 2 CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 56 16 23 0 4 1 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 38 30 26 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 23 55 17 0 3 2 CON
Sudbury LIB 38 19 34 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Thornhill CON 34 55 9 0 3 0 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 36 27 33 0 3 2 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 40 24 27 0 7 2 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 23 27 44 0 2 3 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 55 11 27 0 6 1 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 46 10 37 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 55 19 19 0 5 1 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 49 15 28 0 7 1 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 49 37 11 0 2 2 LIB
Waterloo LIB 51 17 19 0 12 2 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 27 48 12 0 12 2 CON
Whitby LIB 45 32 17 0 4 1 LIB
Willowdale LIB 47 35 13 0 3 2 LIB
Windsor West NDP 48 19 32 0 0 2 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 46 27 19 0 3 5 LIB
York Centre LIB 54 33 12 0 0 0 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 59 17 20 0 3 1 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 24 46 19 0 8 4 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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