Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Sunday, April 12, 2020 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
41.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
46.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 46.4%
Change since last election: ▲4.9%
51.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
26% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.9%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 28.9%
Change since last election: ▼4.3%
31.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
14.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
15.6%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 15.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.2%
17.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
8.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
1.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 1.6%
Change since last election: ▼0.7%
1.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
70 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
89
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 89
Change since last election: ▲10
98 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
17 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼9
40 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
5
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 5
Change since last election: ▼1
14 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 64 18 12 0 4 2 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 27 24 41 0 6 2 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 42 38 13 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Barrie—Innisfil CON 33 40 15 0 11 1 LEANS CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 36 34 15 0 14 1 TOSS-UP
Bay of Quinte LIB 43 32 17 0 7 1 LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 61 12 20 0 6 1 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 51 23 20 0 5 1 LIB
Brampton East LIB 53 20 25 0 2 0 LIB
Brampton North LIB 58 21 16 0 4 0 LIB
Brampton South LIB 53 24 17 0 5 1 LIB
Brampton West LIB 58 21 17 0 3 1 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 43 38 7 0 7 4 LEANS LIB
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 33 42 11 0 11 2 LEANS CON
Burlington LIB 56 26 10 0 7 1 LIB
Cambridge LIB 43 26 20 0 9 2 LIB
Carleton CON 33 52 9 0 5 0 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 35 53 10 0 0 2 CON
Davenport LIB 51 7 35 0 6 1 LIB
Don Valley East LIB 67 18 10 0 5 1 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 54 31 10 0 5 0 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 65 22 7 0 5 1 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 35 34 16 0 12 2 TOSS-UP
Durham CON 36 39 17 0 7 1 LEANS CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 61 26 8 0 5 0 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 26 46 19 0 7 2 CON
Essex CON 22 40 33 0 4 1 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 56 30 8 0 6 1 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 66 18 10 0 3 2 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 59 22 11 0 7 1 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 39 35 17 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 52 33 10 0 4 2 LIB
Guelph LIB 42 15 12 0 30 2 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 28 46 11 0 10 4 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 31 43 15 0 10 1 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 30 11 49 0 9 2 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 43 23 27 0 6 1 LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 32 21 38 0 7 2 LEANS NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 51 23 16 0 9 1 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 43 35 13 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 64 12 20 0 3 1 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 36 47 12 0 5 1 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 46 32 13 0 8 1 LIB
Kenora CON 37 31 24 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Kingston and the Islands LIB 52 14 22 0 10 2 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 49 38 7 0 5 1 LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 40 18 5 0 36 1 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 43 29 13 0 13 2 LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 44 39 5 0 12 1 LEANS LIB
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 31 43 16 0 7 3 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 27 44 15 0 13 1 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 29 47 13 0 10 1 CON
London North Centre LIB 46 19 24 0 9 2 LIB
London West LIB 48 24 20 0 7 2 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 31 20 41 0 6 2 LEANS NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 46 20 2 0 4 28 LIB
Markham—Thornhill LIB 58 31 7 0 3 1 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 41 46 7 0 6 1 LEANS CON
Milton LIB 61 30 3 0 6 1 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 63 23 9 0 4 1 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 57 29 9 0 4 1 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 58 29 8 0 4 0 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 52 33 9 0 6 1 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 62 22 12 0 4 1 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 58 26 10 0 5 1 LIB
Nepean LIB 49 29 14 0 8 1 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 47 35 10 0 6 2 LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 49 30 14 0 6 1 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 39 32 14 0 6 9 LEANS LIB
Niagara West CON 38 39 12 0 8 3 TOSS-UP
Nickel Belt LIB 42 17 33 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 45 25 19 0 7 4 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 38 36 14 0 10 1 LEANS LIB
Oakville LIB 51 34 7 0 7 1 LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 56 31 8 0 5 0 LIB
Orléans LIB 58 24 12 0 6 1 LIB
Oshawa CON 39 43 11 0 6 1 LEANS CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 57 14 19 0 9 2 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 57 21 15 0 7 1 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 53 21 18 0 7 1 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 54 14 22 0 9 2 LIB
Oxford CON 22 47 19 0 9 3 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 50 9 32 0 8 1 LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 33 37 11 0 19 0 LEANS CON
Perth—Wellington CON 33 40 15 0 10 2 LEANS CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 43 30 18 0 8 1 LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 55 26 11 0 7 1 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 22 56 15 0 7 0 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 49 38 8 0 5 1 LIB
Sarnia—Lambton CON 26 44 22 0 5 3 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 42 28 24 0 5 1 LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 62 17 11 0 4 6 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 57 26 13 0 3 1 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 62 17 14 0 6 1 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 58 30 8 0 3 1 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 65 18 12 0 4 1 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 66 17 11 0 5 1 LIB
Simcoe North CON 34 37 13 0 14 2 LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 35 39 10 0 14 1 LEANS CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 62 13 19 0 6 1 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 43 27 22 0 7 1 LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 28 52 14 0 5 1 CON
Sudbury LIB 44 16 29 0 8 2 LIB
Thornhill CON 39 51 6 0 4 0 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 42 23 28 0 5 1 LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 46 21 22 0 10 1 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 29 25 40 0 4 2 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 60 8 22 0 8 1 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 52 8 31 0 8 1 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 61 16 15 0 7 1 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 54 12 23 0 10 1 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 55 33 7 0 3 1 LIB
Waterloo LIB 56 14 15 0 14 1 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 31 43 9 0 16 1 CON
Whitby LIB 51 29 14 0 6 1 LIB
Willowdale LIB 53 32 10 0 5 1 LIB
Windsor West NDP 54 17 28 0 0 1 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 52 24 15 0 5 4 LIB
York Centre LIB 60 30 9 0 2 0 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 65 14 16 0 4 1 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 29 43 15 0 10 3 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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