Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario
last updated: Sunday, April 12, 2020 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected Ontario vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
41.8%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 46.4%
Most likely vote total: 46.4%
Change since last election: ▲4.9% 51.1%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
26%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 28.9%
Most likely vote total: 28.9%
Change since last election: ▼4.3% 31.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
14.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 15.6%
Most likely vote total: 15.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.2% 17.2%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
6.7%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 7.5%
Most likely vote total: 7.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.3% 8.2%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
1.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 1.6%
Most likely vote total: 1.6%
Change since last election: ▼0.7% 1.8%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected Ontario seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
70 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 89
Most likely seat total: 89
Change since last election: ▲10 98 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
17 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 27
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼9 40 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
1 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 5
Most likely seat total: 5
Change since last election: ▼1 14 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | LIB | 64 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing | NDP | 27 | 24 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 2 | NDP |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | CON | 42 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Barrie—Innisfil | CON | 33 | 40 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | CON | 36 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
| Bay of Quinte | LIB | 43 | 32 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Beaches—East York | LIB | 61 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton Centre | LIB | 51 | 23 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton East | LIB | 53 | 20 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | LIB |
| Brampton North | LIB | 58 | 21 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | LIB |
| Brampton South | LIB | 53 | 24 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Brampton West | LIB | 58 | 21 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Brantford—Brant | CON | 43 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | CON | 33 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Burlington | LIB | 56 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Cambridge | LIB | 43 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LIB |
| Carleton | CON | 33 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | CON |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | CON | 35 | 53 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | CON |
| Davenport | LIB | 51 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Don Valley East | LIB | 67 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Don Valley North | LIB | 54 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | LIB |
| Don Valley West | LIB | 65 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Dufferin—Caledon | CON | 35 | 34 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Durham | CON | 36 | 39 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | LIB | 61 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0 | LIB |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | CON | 26 | 46 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 2 | CON |
| Essex | CON | 22 | 40 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Etobicoke Centre | LIB | 56 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Etobicoke North | LIB | 66 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 2 | LIB |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | LIB | 59 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | CON | 39 | 35 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | LIB | 52 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 2 | LIB |
| Guelph | LIB | 42 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 30 | 2 | LIB |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | CON | 28 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 4 | CON |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | CON | 31 | 43 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 1 | CON |
| Hamilton Centre | NDP | 30 | 11 | 49 | 0 | 9 | 2 | NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | LIB | 43 | 23 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Hamilton Mountain | NDP | 32 | 21 | 38 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | LIB | 51 | 23 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 1 | LIB |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington | CON | 43 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Humber River—Black Creek | LIB | 64 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Huron—Bruce | CON | 36 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 1 | CON |
| Kanata—Carleton | LIB | 46 | 32 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 1 | LIB |
| Kenora | CON | 37 | 31 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Kingston and the Islands | LIB | 52 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 2 | LIB |
| King—Vaughan | LIB | 49 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Kitchener Centre | LIB | 40 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 36 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | LIB | 43 | 29 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 2 | LIB |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | LIB | 44 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | CON | 31 | 43 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 3 | CON |
| Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | CON | 27 | 44 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 1 | CON |
| Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | CON | 29 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 1 | CON |
| London North Centre | LIB | 46 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LIB |
| London West | LIB | 48 | 24 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| London—Fanshawe | NDP | 31 | 20 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LEANS NDP |
| Markham—Stouffville | LIB | 46 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 28 | LIB |
| Markham—Thornhill | LIB | 58 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Markham—Unionville | CON | 41 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Milton | LIB | 61 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga Centre | LIB | 63 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | LIB | 57 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | LIB | 58 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | LIB | 52 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Malton | LIB | 62 | 22 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | LIB | 58 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Nepean | LIB | 49 | 29 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 1 | LIB |
| Newmarket—Aurora | LIB | 47 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Niagara Centre | LIB | 49 | 30 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Niagara Falls | CON | 39 | 32 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 9 | LEANS LIB |
| Niagara West | CON | 38 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 3 | TOSS-UP |
| Nickel Belt | LIB | 42 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Nipissing—Timiskaming | LIB | 45 | 25 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 4 | LIB |
| Northumberland—Peterborough South | CON | 38 | 36 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Oakville | LIB | 51 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Oakville North—Burlington | LIB | 56 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0 | LIB |
| Orléans | LIB | 58 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Oshawa | CON | 39 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Ottawa Centre | LIB | 57 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LIB |
| Ottawa South | LIB | 57 | 21 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | LIB | 53 | 21 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Ottawa—Vanier | LIB | 54 | 14 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LIB |
| Oxford | CON | 22 | 47 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 3 | CON |
| Parkdale—High Park | LIB | 50 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 1 | LIB |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | CON | 33 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 19 | 0 | LEANS CON |
| Perth—Wellington | CON | 33 | 40 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | LIB | 43 | 30 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 1 | LIB |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | LIB | 55 | 26 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | CON | 22 | 56 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 0 | CON |
| Richmond Hill | LIB | 49 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Sarnia—Lambton | CON | 26 | 44 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 3 | CON |
| Sault Ste. Marie | LIB | 42 | 28 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough Centre | LIB | 62 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 6 | LIB |
| Scarborough North | LIB | 57 | 26 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough Southwest | LIB | 62 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | LIB | 58 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | LIB | 65 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | LIB | 66 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Simcoe North | CON | 34 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Simcoe—Grey | CON | 35 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Spadina—Fort York | LIB | 62 | 13 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| St. Catharines | LIB | 43 | 27 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | CON | 28 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 1 | CON |
| Sudbury | LIB | 44 | 16 | 29 | 0 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| Thornhill | CON | 39 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | CON |
| Thunder Bay—Rainy River | LIB | 42 | 23 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | LIB | 46 | 21 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 1 | LIB |
| Timmins—James Bay | NDP | 29 | 25 | 40 | 0 | 4 | 2 | NDP |
| Toronto Centre | LIB | 60 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 1 | LIB |
| Toronto—Danforth | LIB | 52 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 8 | 1 | LIB |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | LIB | 61 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 1 | LIB |
| University—Rosedale | LIB | 54 | 12 | 23 | 0 | 10 | 1 | LIB |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | LIB | 55 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| Waterloo | LIB | 56 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 1 | LIB |
| Wellington—Halton Hills | CON | 31 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 1 | CON |
| Whitby | LIB | 51 | 29 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | LIB |
| Willowdale | LIB | 53 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 | LIB |
| Windsor West | NDP | 54 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | LIB |
| Windsor—Tecumseh | LIB | 52 | 24 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 4 | LIB |
| York Centre | LIB | 60 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | LIB |
| York South—Weston | LIB | 65 | 14 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LIB |
| York—Simcoe | CON | 29 | 43 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 3 | CON |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.