Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Sunday, August 16 at 00:04 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
37.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
42.2%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 42.2%
Change since last election: ▲0.7%
46.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.6%
Change since last election: ▼1.6%
34.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
15% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.7%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 16.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
18.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.9%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.9%
Change since last election: ▲0.7%
7.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.6%
Change since last election: ▲0.3%
2.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
63 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
79
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 79
Change since last election: ▲0
88 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲1
47 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
5
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 5
Change since last election: ▼1
16 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 59 20 13 0 4 3 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 24 26 42 0 6 3 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 38 41 14 0 4 2 LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil CON 28 43 17 0 10 2 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 32 37 16 0 13 2 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte LIB 38 35 18 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 57 14 21 0 6 2 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 47 25 21 0 5 2 LIB
Brampton East LIB 48 23 26 0 2 1 LIB
Brampton North LIB 54 24 17 0 3 1 LIB
Brampton South LIB 49 27 18 0 4 2 LIB
Brampton West LIB 53 24 18 0 3 2 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 39 40 7 0 7 6 TOSS-UP
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 29 45 12 0 10 3 CON
Burlington LIB 51 30 11 0 7 1 LIB
Cambridge LIB 39 28 21 0 8 4 LIB
Carleton CON 29 55 9 0 5 1 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 31 55 11 0 0 3 CON
Davenport LIB 47 9 37 0 5 2 LIB
Don Valley East LIB 62 21 11 0 4 1 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 50 34 11 0 4 1 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 61 25 8 0 5 1 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 32 37 17 0 12 3 LEANS CON
Durham CON 32 42 18 0 6 2 CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 56 29 9 0 4 1 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 22 49 20 0 6 3 CON
Essex CON 18 43 34 0 3 2 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 52 33 9 0 5 2 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 62 21 11 0 3 3 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 54 25 12 0 6 2 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 35 38 19 0 7 2 LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 47 36 11 0 3 3 LIB
Guelph LIB 39 17 13 0 28 3 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 24 49 12 0 9 5 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 27 46 16 0 9 2 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 26 12 50 0 8 3 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 39 25 28 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 29 23 39 0 7 3 NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 47 25 18 0 9 2 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 39 39 14 0 6 3 TOSS-UP
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 60 15 21 0 2 2 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 32 50 12 0 5 2 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 43 35 14 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
Kenora CON 33 33 25 0 6 2 TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands LIB 48 17 23 0 9 3 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 45 42 8 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 36 20 6 0 35 2 TOSS-UP
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 40 32 14 0 12 3 LEANS LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 40 42 6 0 11 2 LEANS CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 27 46 17 0 6 4 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 23 47 16 0 12 2 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 25 50 14 0 9 2 CON
London North Centre LIB 42 22 25 0 8 3 LIB
London West LIB 43 26 21 0 6 2 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 28 22 42 0 5 3 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 39 22 3 0 3 34 LEANS LIB
Markham—Thornhill LIB 53 34 8 0 3 1 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 37 48 7 0 5 2 CON
Milton LIB 56 33 4 0 6 2 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 58 26 10 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 53 32 10 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 53 32 9 0 4 1 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 48 36 9 0 5 2 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 58 24 13 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 53 29 11 0 5 2 LIB
Nepean LIB 45 32 15 0 7 1 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 43 38 11 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 45 32 14 0 6 2 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 34 35 15 0 6 10 TOSS-UP
Niagara West CON 34 43 13 0 7 4 LEANS CON
Nickel Belt LIB 38 19 35 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 40 27 21 0 7 5 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 35 39 15 0 9 2 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 47 37 8 0 7 2 LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 51 34 9 0 5 1 LIB
Orléans LIB 54 27 13 0 5 1 LIB
Oshawa CON 35 46 12 0 5 2 CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 53 16 20 0 8 3 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 53 23 16 0 7 2 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 48 24 19 0 7 2 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 50 16 23 0 8 3 LIB
Oxford CON 18 49 20 0 8 5 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 46 12 33 0 7 2 LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 29 41 12 0 18 1 CON
Perth—Wellington CON 28 44 15 0 9 3 CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 38 33 19 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 51 29 12 0 6 2 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 19 58 16 0 6 1 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 44 41 9 0 4 1 LEANS LIB
Sarnia—Lambton CON 22 47 23 0 5 4 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 38 30 25 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 57 19 12 0 4 8 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 53 29 14 0 3 1 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 58 19 16 0 6 2 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 53 33 9 0 3 1 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 60 21 13 0 3 2 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 62 20 12 0 5 2 LIB
Simcoe North CON 31 39 14 0 13 3 LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 31 42 11 0 13 2 CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 58 15 20 0 5 1 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 39 30 23 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 24 55 14 0 4 2 CON
Sudbury LIB 40 19 30 0 7 3 LIB
Thornhill CON 35 54 7 0 4 1 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 37 26 30 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 42 24 23 0 9 2 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 25 27 41 0 4 3 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 57 11 24 0 8 1 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 48 9 33 0 8 2 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 57 19 16 0 7 2 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 50 15 24 0 9 2 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 51 36 8 0 3 2 LIB
Waterloo LIB 52 16 16 0 14 2 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 27 46 10 0 15 2 CON
Whitby LIB 46 32 15 0 6 1 LIB
Willowdale LIB 49 35 11 0 4 2 LIB
Windsor West NDP 50 19 29 0 0 2 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 48 26 16 0 4 6 LIB
York Centre LIB 56 33 10 0 1 0 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 61 16 18 0 4 2 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 25 45 16 0 9 4 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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