last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

[dylan_tabs style=”minimal-tabs” alignment=”center”]
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Ontario vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
37.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
41.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 41.4%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
45.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.6%
Change since last election: ▼2.6%
33.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.4%
Change since last election: ▲1.6%
20.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
5.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▼0.2%
6.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.6%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
3.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Ontario seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
62 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
77
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 77
Change since last election: ▼2
87 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲1
47 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
6
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▲0
18 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 59 20 15 0 3 4 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 23 25 44 0 5 4 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 38 40 16 0 4 3 LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil CON 28 42 18 0 9 3 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 31 37 17 0 12 3 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte LIB 38 34 20 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 56 13 23 0 5 2 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 46 24 23 0 4 3 LIB
Brampton East LIB 47 21 29 0 1 2 LIB
Brampton North LIB 53 24 19 0 3 2 LIB
Brampton South LIB 48 26 20 0 4 3 LIB
Brampton West LIB 52 23 20 0 2 3 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 38 39 9 0 6 8 TOSS-UP
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 29 44 14 0 9 4 CON
Burlington LIB 51 29 12 0 6 2 LIB
Cambridge LIB 38 27 23 0 7 5 LIB
Carleton CON 29 54 11 0 4 2 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 30 54 12 0 0 4 CON
Davenport LIB 45 8 39 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Don Valley East LIB 61 20 13 0 3 2 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 50 33 12 0 4 2 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 60 24 9 0 4 2 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 31 35 19 0 10 4 LEANS CON
Durham CON 31 40 20 0 6 3 LEANS CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 55 29 10 0 4 2 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 21 48 22 0 5 4 CON
Essex CON 18 41 36 0 3 3 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 51 32 10 0 4 3 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 61 20 13 0 2 4 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 54 25 14 0 5 2 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 34 37 20 0 6 2 LEANS CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 46 35 12 0 3 4 LIB
Guelph LIB 39 16 15 0 27 4 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 23 48 14 0 8 6 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 26 46 17 0 8 3 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 25 11 53 0 7 4 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 38 24 30 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 28 22 41 0 6 4 NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 46 24 20 0 7 3 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 38 38 15 0 5 4 TOSS-UP
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 59 14 23 0 2 2 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 31 48 14 0 4 3 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 42 34 15 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Kenora CON 32 32 27 0 5 3 TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands LIB 47 16 25 0 8 4 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 44 41 9 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 36 19 8 0 33 3 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 39 31 16 0 11 4 LEANS LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 40 41 7 0 10 3 LEANS CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 26 45 18 0 5 5 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 23 46 18 0 11 3 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 25 49 16 0 8 3 CON
London North Centre LIB 41 21 27 0 7 4 LIB
London West LIB 42 25 23 0 5 3 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 27 21 44 0 4 4 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 36 20 3 0 2 39 LEANS OTH
Markham—Thornhill LIB 53 33 9 0 2 2 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 37 47 9 0 4 3 CON
Milton LIB 56 32 5 0 5 3 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 57 25 12 0 3 3 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 52 31 12 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 52 31 11 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 48 35 11 0 4 2 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 57 23 14 0 3 3 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 52 29 12 0 4 2 LIB
Nepean LIB 45 31 16 0 6 2 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 42 37 13 0 5 4 LEANS LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 45 31 16 0 5 3 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 33 34 16 0 5 12 TOSS-UP
Niagara West CON 33 42 14 0 6 5 LEANS CON
Nickel Belt LIB 36 18 37 0 5 3 TOSS-UP
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 39 26 22 0 6 7 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 34 38 17 0 8 3 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 46 36 9 0 6 2 LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 50 34 10 0 4 2 LIB
Orléans LIB 53 26 15 0 4 2 LIB
Oshawa CON 34 45 14 0 4 3 CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 52 15 22 0 7 4 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 52 22 18 0 6 3 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 47 23 21 0 6 3 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 49 15 25 0 7 4 LIB
Oxford CON 18 48 22 0 7 6 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 46 11 35 0 6 3 LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 29 40 14 0 16 2 CON
Perth—Wellington CON 28 43 17 0 8 4 CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 38 32 21 0 7 3 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 50 28 14 0 5 3 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 18 57 18 0 5 1 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 44 40 11 0 3 2 LEANS LIB
Sarnia—Lambton CON 21 46 25 0 4 5 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 37 29 27 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 56 18 13 0 3 10 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 53 28 16 0 2 2 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 57 18 17 0 5 3 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 53 33 11 0 2 2 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 60 20 14 0 3 3 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 61 19 13 0 4 3 LIB
Simcoe North CON 30 38 16 0 12 4 LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 30 42 13 0 12 3 CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 57 15 22 0 5 2 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 38 29 25 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 24 54 16 0 3 3 CON
Sudbury LIB 39 18 32 0 6 4 LEANS LIB
Thornhill CON 34 53 8 0 3 1 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 36 25 32 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 41 23 25 0 8 3 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 24 26 43 0 3 5 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 56 10 26 0 7 2 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 47 9 35 0 6 3 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 56 18 18 0 6 2 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 49 14 26 0 8 2 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 50 35 10 0 2 3 LIB
Waterloo LIB 52 15 18 0 12 3 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 27 46 11 0 13 3 CON
Whitby LIB 45 31 16 0 5 2 LIB
Willowdale LIB 48 34 12 0 3 3 LIB
Windsor West NDP 49 18 31 0 0 3 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 47 25 17 0 4 8 LIB
York Centre LIB 55 32 12 0 1 1 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 60 16 19 0 3 2 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 25 44 18 0 8 5 CON
[dylan_page_title title=”Regional projections & riding-level data” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[/dylan_tabs]

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics