Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Monday, June 8, 2020 at 10:52 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
42.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
46.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 46.9%
Change since last election: ▲5.4%
51.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
27.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 27.6%
Change since last election: ▼5.6%
30.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
14.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.1%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 16.1%
Change since last election: ▼0.7%
17.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
5.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.4%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.4%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3%
Change since last election: ▲0.7%
3.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
74 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
89
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 89
Change since last election: ▲10
99 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
15 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼9
35 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
5
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 5
Change since last election: ▼1
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 64 17 12 0 3 4 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 27 23 42 0 5 3 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CON 43 37 14 0 4 3 LEANS LIB
Barrie—Innisfil CON 33 39 16 0 10 2 LEANS CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 36 34 15 0 13 2 LEANS LIB
Bay of Quinte LIB 43 31 17 0 6 2 LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 61 11 20 0 6 2 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 52 21 20 0 4 3 LIB
Brampton East LIB 53 19 26 0 1 2 LIB
Brampton North LIB 59 21 16 0 3 1 LIB
Brampton South LIB 53 23 18 0 4 2 LIB
Brampton West LIB 58 20 18 0 2 2 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 44 36 7 0 6 7 LEANS LIB
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 34 41 12 0 10 4 LEANS CON
Burlington LIB 56 26 10 0 6 2 LIB
Cambridge LIB 43 24 21 0 8 4 LIB
Carleton CON 34 51 9 0 5 2 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 35 51 10 0 0 4 CON
Davenport LIB 51 6 36 0 5 2 LIB
Don Valley East LIB 67 17 11 0 4 2 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 55 30 10 0 4 1 LIB
Don Valley West LIB 66 21 7 0 4 2 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 36 33 17 0 11 4 LEANS LIB
Durham CON 36 37 18 0 6 2 TOSS-UP
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 61 25 8 0 4 1 LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 26 45 19 0 6 3 CON
Essex CON 22 39 34 0 3 2 LEANS CON
Etobicoke Centre LIB 57 29 8 0 5 2 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 66 17 10 0 3 3 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 59 22 12 0 6 2 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 39 34 18 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 52 31 10 0 3 3 LIB
Guelph LIB 43 14 12 0 27 3 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 28 45 12 0 9 6 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 31 42 15 0 8 2 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 30 9 49 0 7 4 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 43 22 28 0 5 3 LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 33 20 38 0 6 3 LEANS NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 51 21 17 0 8 2 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington CON 43 35 13 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 64 11 20 0 2 2 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 36 45 12 0 4 2 LEANS CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 48 31 13 0 7 2 LIB
Kenora CON 38 29 25 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Kingston and the Islands LIB 52 14 22 0 8 3 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 50 37 8 0 4 2 LIB
Kitchener Centre LIB 41 17 6 0 34 3 LEANS LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 44 28 14 0 11 3 LIB
Kitchener—Conestoga LIB 45 37 5 0 10 2 LEANS LIB
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 31 42 17 0 6 4 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 28 43 16 0 11 2 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 30 46 14 0 9 2 CON
London North Centre LIB 47 18 24 0 8 3 LIB
London West LIB 48 23 21 0 6 3 LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 31 19 42 0 5 3 LEANS NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 42 17 2 0 3 36 LEANS LIB
Markham—Thornhill LIB 58 30 7 0 3 2 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 42 44 7 0 5 2 LEANS CON
Milton LIB 61 28 3 0 5 2 LIB
Mississauga Centre LIB 63 22 9 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 57 28 10 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 58 28 9 0 4 2 LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 53 31 9 0 5 2 LIB
Mississauga—Malton LIB 63 21 12 0 3 2 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 58 26 10 0 4 2 LIB
Nepean LIB 50 28 14 0 6 2 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 48 33 11 0 6 3 LIB
Niagara Centre LIB 50 28 14 0 5 3 LIB
Niagara Falls CON 38 31 14 0 5 11 LEANS LIB
Niagara West CON 38 38 12 0 7 4 TOSS-UP
Nickel Belt LIB 42 16 34 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 45 23 20 0 6 6 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South CON 39 35 15 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Oakville LIB 52 33 7 0 6 2 LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 56 30 8 0 4 1 LIB
Orléans LIB 58 23 13 0 5 2 LIB
Oshawa CON 40 41 12 0 5 3 LEANS CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 58 12 19 0 7 3 LIB
Ottawa South LIB 57 19 15 0 6 2 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 53 20 18 0 6 3 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 54 13 23 0 7 3 LIB
Oxford CON 22 45 20 0 8 5 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 51 8 32 0 7 2 LIB
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 34 37 12 0 17 1 LEANS CON
Perth—Wellington CON 33 40 15 0 9 4 LEANS CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 43 29 18 0 7 2 LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 55 25 12 0 6 2 LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 22 55 16 0 6 1 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 49 37 9 0 4 2 LIB
Sarnia—Lambton CON 26 43 23 0 4 4 CON
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 43 26 24 0 4 2 LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 61 15 11 0 4 9 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 58 25 13 0 2 2 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 62 16 15 0 5 2 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 58 29 9 0 2 2 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 65 17 12 0 3 3 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 66 16 11 0 4 2 LIB
Simcoe North CON 35 36 14 0 13 3 TOSS-UP
Simcoe—Grey CON 35 38 11 0 12 3 LEANS CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 62 12 19 0 5 2 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 44 26 22 0 6 2 LIB
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 29 51 14 0 4 3 CON
Sudbury LIB 45 15 29 0 7 4 LIB
Thornhill CON 40 49 7 0 3 1 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 42 23 29 0 4 2 LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 46 20 23 0 8 2 LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 29 23 41 0 3 4 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 61 7 23 0 7 2 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 52 7 32 0 7 3 LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 61 15 15 0 6 2 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 55 11 23 0 8 2 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 56 32 8 0 2 2 LIB
Waterloo LIB 57 13 15 0 13 2 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 32 42 9 0 14 3 CON
Whitby LIB 51 28 14 0 5 2 LIB
Willowdale LIB 53 30 10 0 4 2 LIB
Windsor West NDP 54 16 28 0 0 2 LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh LIB 52 22 15 0 4 7 LIB
York Centre LIB 60 29 10 0 1 0 LIB
York South—Weston LIB 65 13 17 0 3 2 LIB
York—Simcoe CON 30 41 16 0 9 5 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!