last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
34.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 38%
 Most likely vote total: 38%
Change since last election: ▲2.9% 41.8%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
28.9%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 32.2%
 Most likely vote total: 32.2%
Change since last election: ▲3.3% 35.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
18.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 20.4%
 Most likely vote total: 20.4%
Change since last election: ▼5.5% 22.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
5.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 6.2%
 Most likely vote total: 6.2%
Change since last election: ▼2.6% 6.8%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
2.8%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.2%
 Most likely vote total: 3.2%
Change since last election: ▲1.9% 3.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0 2 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Territories | LIB | 43 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 4 | LIB |
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nunavut | NDP | 33 | 30 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | LEANS NDP |
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yukon | LIB | 37 | 36 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 3 | TOSS-UP |
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.
