Next Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 19:08 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
33.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
37.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 37.5%
Change since last election: ▲11.4%
41.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
22.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
25.3%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 25.3%
Change since last election: ▼8.8%
27.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
22.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
25.3%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 25.3%
Change since last election: ▲0.9%
27.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
7.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
8.2%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 8.2%
Change since last election: ▼4.3%
9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.6%
Change since last election: ▲0.7%
4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
13 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
21
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▲10
29 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▼9
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
4 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼1
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 29 44 18 0 5 3 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 50 4 38 0 6 3 LIB
Burnaby South NDP 29 18 48 0 3 3 NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 29 45 17 0 5 3 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 39 35 19 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Chilliwack—Hope CON 28 43 18 0 7 5 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City CON 46 29 20 0 3 2 LIB
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 49 25 21 0 4 2 LIB
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 20 26 45 0 9 0 NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 26 16 40 0 16 2 NDP
Delta LIB 51 25 17 0 3 4 LIB
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 27 12 38 0 20 3 NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 49 27 17 0 2 5 LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 38 36 7 0 11 8 LEANS LIB
Kelowna—Lake Country CON 48 33 13 0 4 2 LIB
Kootenay—Columbia CON 15 38 37 0 6 3 TOSS-UP
Langley—Aldergrove CON 36 38 19 0 4 3 LEANS CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CON 39 34 17 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 23 21 27 0 27 3 TOSS-UP
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 34 12 46 0 5 3 NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 20 25 42 0 11 3 NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 33 40 17 0 7 3 LEANS CON
North Vancouver LIB 57 18 15 0 9 2 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CON 40 29 25 0 4 2 LIB
Port Moody—Coquitlam CON 42 21 32 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 18 64 11 0 4 4 CON
Richmond Centre CON 39 40 16 0 3 2 TOSS-UP
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 27 14 13 0 45 2 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 19 26 44 0 4 7 NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 28 24 40 0 5 3 NDP
South Surrey—White Rock CON 46 35 13 0 5 2 LIB
Steveston—Richmond East CON 46 33 16 0 4 1 LIB
Surrey Centre LIB 51 17 25 0 3 4 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 56 14 28 0 1 2 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 56 10 23 0 8 2 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 28 5 55 0 11 1 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 30 15 9 0 2 44 OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 34 13 48 0 3 2 NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 56 20 15 0 7 1 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 57 21 19 0 2 1 LIB
Victoria NDP 52 10 28 0 8 2 LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 47 19 15 0 17 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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