Next Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Friday, February 14, 2020 at 20:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
27.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.2%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 30.2%
Change since last election: ▲4.1%
33.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33.1%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 33.1%
Change since last election: ▼1%
36.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
20% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
22.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 22.2%
Change since last election: ▼2.2%
24.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
9.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
11%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 11%
Change since last election: ▼1.5%
12.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.5%
Change since last election: ▲0.6%
3.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
6 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
14
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 14
Change since last election: ▲3
21 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
9 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
15
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 15
Change since last election: ▼2
23 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
3 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼1
14 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲0
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 22 53 15 0 7 3 CON
Burnaby NorthóSeymour LIB 45 9 35 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Burnaby South NDP 23 25 44 0 5 2 NDP
CaribooóPrince George CON 22 54 13 0 7 3 CON
Central OkanaganóSimilkameenóNicola CON 30 44 16 0 7 3 CON
ChilliwackóHope CON 21 51 15 0 9 4 CON
CloverdaleóLangley City CON 38 37 17 0 5 2 TOSS-UP
CoquitlamóPort Coquitlam LIB 41 33 19 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
CourtenayóAlberni NDP 14 34 40 0 11 0 LEANS NDP
CowichanóMalahatóLangford NDP 20 23 36 0 20 2 NDP
Delta LIB 43 33 15 0 6 4 LEANS LIB
EsquimaltóSaanichóSooke NDP 21 19 34 0 24 2 LEANS NDP
FleetwoodóPort Kells LIB 41 35 15 0 4 5 LEANS LIB
KamloopsóThompsonóCariboo CON 30 44 5 0 14 7 CON
KelownaóLake Country CON 39 41 11 0 7 2 LEANS CON
KootenayóColumbia CON 10 46 32 0 9 3 CON
LangleyóAldergrove CON 28 47 15 0 7 3 CON
MissionóMatsquióFraser Canyon CON 31 42 14 0 10 3 CON
NanaimoóLadysmith GRN 17 27 23 0 31 3 LEANS GRN
New WestminsteróBurnaby NDP 28 19 43 0 7 3 NDP
North IslandóPowell River NDP 14 33 37 0 14 3 LEANS NDP
North OkanaganóShuswap CON 25 49 14 0 9 3 CON
North Vancouver LIB 49 25 13 0 12 1 LIB
Pitt MeadowsóMaple Ridge CON 32 37 22 0 6 2 LEANS CON
Port MoodyóCoquitlam CON 34 28 29 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Prince GeorgeóPeace RiveróNorthern Rockies CON 12 71 8 0 6 4 CON
Richmond Centre CON 31 49 13 0 5 2 CON
SaanichóGulf Islands GRN 20 19 10 0 50 2 GRN
SkeenaóBulkley Valley NDP 14 34 40 0 6 7 LEANS NDP
South OkanaganóWest Kootenay NDP 21 31 36 0 8 3 LEANS NDP
South SurreyóWhite Rock CON 38 43 10 0 7 2 LEANS CON
StevestonóRichmond East CON 38 41 14 0 6 1 LEANS CON
Surrey Centre LIB 44 24 23 0 6 4 LIB
SurreyóNewton LIB 49 21 26 0 2 2 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 49 16 22 0 11 2 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 23 12 50 0 14 1 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 24 22 7 0 4 43 OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 28 20 44 0 6 1 NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 48 28 13 0 10 1 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 49 28 17 0 5 1 LIB
Victoria NDP 44 17 26 0 11 2 LIB
West VancouveróSunshine CoastóSea to Sky Country LIB 39 26 13 0 20 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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