last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

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[dylan_page_title title=”Projected BC vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
29.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 32.4%
Change since last election: ▲6.3%
35.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
26.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
29.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 29.4%
Change since last election: ▼4.7%
32.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
23.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
25.9%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 25.9%
Change since last election: ▲1.5%
28.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
7.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
8.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 8.5%
Change since last election: ▼4%
9.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.8%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.8%
Change since last election: ▲0.9%
4.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected BC seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
7 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
18
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 18
Change since last election: ▲7
24 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
6 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
11
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▼6
20 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼1
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”BC riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 24 49 19 0 5 3 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 46 6 39 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Burnaby South NDP 24 22 49 0 3 3 NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 24 50 17 0 5 3 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 33 40 19 0 5 3 LEANS CON
Chilliwack—Hope CON 23 47 18 0 7 5 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City CON 40 33 21 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 43 29 22 0 4 2 LIB
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 16 30 45 0 9 1 NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 22 20 40 0 16 2 NDP
Delta LIB 45 29 18 0 4 4 LIB
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 23 16 39 0 20 3 NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 44 31 18 0 2 5 LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 33 40 7 0 11 8 LEANS CON
Kelowna—Lake Country CON 42 37 14 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Kootenay—Columbia CON 12 42 37 0 6 3 LEANS CON
Langley—Aldergrove CON 31 43 19 0 5 3 CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CON 33 38 17 0 8 3 LEANS CON
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 19 24 27 0 27 3 TOSS-UP
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 29 15 47 0 5 3 NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 16 29 42 0 11 3 NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 28 45 17 0 7 3 CON
North Vancouver LIB 52 22 16 0 9 2 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CON 35 33 25 0 4 3 TOSS-UP
Port Moody—Coquitlam CON 37 24 33 0 4 2 LEANS LIB
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 14 67 11 0 4 4 CON
Richmond Centre CON 34 44 16 0 3 2 CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 22 17 13 0 46 2 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 15 30 44 0 4 7 NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 23 27 41 0 5 3 NDP
South Surrey—White Rock CON 41 39 13 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Steveston—Richmond East CON 41 37 17 0 4 1 LEANS LIB
Surrey Centre LIB 46 21 26 0 4 4 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 51 17 30 0 1 2 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 51 13 25 0 9 3 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 24 9 55 0 11 1 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 26 18 9 0 2 45 OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 30 16 49 0 4 2 NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 50 24 16 0 8 1 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 51 25 20 0 3 2 LIB
Victoria NDP 47 13 29 0 8 3 LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 42 23 16 0 17 2 LIB
[dylan_page_title title=”Regional projections & riding-level data” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[/dylan_tabs]

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics