Next Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
27.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 31%
Change since last election: ▲4.9%
34.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.6%
Change since last election: ▼2.5%
34.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
24.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
26.9%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 26.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.5%
29.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.8%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.8%
Change since last election: ▼4.7%
8.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.8%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
6 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
15
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 15
Change since last election: ▲4
22 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
8 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
14
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 14
Change since last election: ▼3
22 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
11
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▲0
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▼1
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 23 51 19 0 4 2 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 44 8 41 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Burnaby South NDP 23 24 49 0 3 2 NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 23 53 17 0 5 2 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 32 42 20 0 4 2 CON
Chilliwack—Hope CON 21 50 19 0 6 4 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City CON 39 35 22 0 3 1 LEANS LIB
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 42 31 22 0 4 1 LIB
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 15 32 45 0 8 0 NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 20 21 42 0 15 2 NDP
Delta LIB 43 32 19 0 3 3 LIB
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 22 17 40 0 19 2 NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 42 34 18 0 2 4 LEANS LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 31 44 8 0 10 6 CON
Kelowna—Lake Country CON 40 39 15 0 4 2 TOSS-UP
Kootenay—Columbia CON 11 44 38 0 6 2 LEANS CON
Langley—Aldergrove CON 29 45 20 0 4 2 CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CON 32 41 18 0 7 2 LEANS CON
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 18 27 28 0 25 2 TOSS-UP
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 28 17 49 0 4 2 NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 15 31 43 0 10 2 NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 26 47 18 0 6 2 CON
North Vancouver LIB 50 24 16 0 9 1 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CON 33 36 26 0 4 2 LEANS CON
Port Moody—Coquitlam CON 35 26 34 0 3 1 TOSS-UP
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 13 70 11 0 3 3 CON
Richmond Centre CON 32 47 17 0 3 1 CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 22 19 14 0 45 1 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 14 32 45 0 4 6 NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 22 29 42 0 5 2 NDP
South Surrey—White Rock CON 38 42 14 0 4 1 LEANS CON
Steveston—Richmond East CON 39 39 18 0 3 1 TOSS-UP
Surrey Centre LIB 45 23 26 0 3 3 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 49 19 30 0 1 1 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 50 15 26 0 8 2 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 22 10 56 0 10 1 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 26 22 10 0 2 40 OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 28 18 49 0 3 1 NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 49 26 17 0 7 1 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 50 26 21 0 2 1 LIB
Victoria NDP 45 15 31 0 7 2 LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 41 25 17 0 16 1 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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