Next Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 20:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
33.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
37.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 37.3%
Change since last election: ▲11.2%
41.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
23.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
26%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 26%
Change since last election: ▼8.1%
28.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
20.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
23.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 23.2%
Change since last election: ▼1.2%
25.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
7.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.9%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.9%
Change since last election: ▼4.6%
8.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.6%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5.6%
Change since last election: ▲2.7%
6.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
14 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
21
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▲10
29 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
3 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▼9
18 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
4 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼1
16 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 29 45 16 0 4 5 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 51 4 35 0 5 5 LIB
Burnaby South NDP 29 19 46 0 3 4 NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 29 46 15 0 5 5 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 38 36 17 0 4 4 LEANS LIB
Chilliwack—Hope CON 28 43 16 0 6 7 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City CON 46 30 19 0 3 3 LIB
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 48 25 20 0 4 3 LIB
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 20 27 43 0 9 1 NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 26 17 37 0 16 4 NDP
Delta LIB 51 25 15 0 3 6 LIB
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 27 13 36 0 20 4 LEANS NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 49 27 15 0 2 7 LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 37 36 5 0 11 11 TOSS-UP
Kelowna—Lake Country CON 47 34 12 0 4 4 LIB
Kootenay—Columbia CON 16 39 35 0 6 5 LEANS CON
Langley—Aldergrove CON 36 39 17 0 4 4 LEANS CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CON 38 34 15 0 7 5 LEANS LIB
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 23 21 24 0 27 5 LEANS GRN
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 34 13 44 0 4 4 LEANS NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 20 26 39 0 10 5 NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 33 41 15 0 7 4 LEANS CON
North Vancouver LIB 57 18 13 0 8 3 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CON 40 30 23 0 4 4 LEANS LIB
Port Moody—Coquitlam CON 42 22 30 0 4 3 LIB
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 18 64 9 0 3 6 CON
Richmond Centre CON 39 41 14 0 3 3 LEANS CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 27 14 11 0 44 3 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 19 26 41 0 4 10 NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 28 25 37 0 5 5 LEANS NDP
South Surrey—White Rock CON 46 35 11 0 4 3 LIB
Steveston—Richmond East CON 46 33 15 0 4 2 LIB
Surrey Centre LIB 51 17 23 0 3 6 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 56 14 26 0 1 3 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 56 11 21 0 8 4 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 29 6 52 0 11 3 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 27 14 6 0 2 52 OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 34 14 46 0 3 3 NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 56 21 14 0 7 3 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 56 22 17 0 2 3 LIB
Victoria NDP 52 10 26 0 7 4 LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 47 19 14 0 16 4 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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