Next Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Sunday, August 16 at 00:04 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
36%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 36%
Change since last election: ▲9.9%
39.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
25.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.3%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 28.3%
Change since last election: ▼5.8%
31.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
17.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 17.8%
Change since last election: ▼6.6%
19.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
11.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 12.6%
Change since last election: ▲0.1%
13.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
4.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5.2%
Change since last election: ▲2.3%
5.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
12 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
19
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 19
Change since last election: ▲8
29 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼7
19 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼1
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲0
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 28 47 12 0 8 5 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 51 6 29 0 10 4 LIB
Burnaby South NDP 28 22 39 0 7 4 NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 28 49 10 0 9 5 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 36 39 12 0 9 4 LEANS CON
Chilliwack—Hope CON 26 45 11 0 11 6 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City CON 45 32 14 0 7 3 LIB
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 47 28 15 0 8 3 LIB
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 19 30 36 0 13 1 LEANS NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 25 19 30 0 22 4 LEANS NDP
Delta LIB 49 27 11 0 7 5 LIB
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 26 15 28 0 27 4 TOSS-UP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 47 30 11 0 5 6 LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 35 38 1 0 16 10 LEANS CON
Kelowna—Lake Country CON 45 36 8 0 8 4 LEANS LIB
Kootenay—Columbia CON 15 42 28 0 10 5 CON
Langley—Aldergrove CON 34 42 12 0 8 4 LEANS CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CON 37 36 11 0 12 4 TOSS-UP
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 21 22 18 0 34 4 GRN
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 34 15 37 0 9 4 LEANS NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 19 29 32 0 16 4 LEANS NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 31 43 10 0 11 4 CON
North Vancouver LIB 55 20 9 0 13 3 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CON 39 32 18 0 8 4 LEANS LIB
Port Moody—Coquitlam CON 41 24 24 0 8 3 LIB
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 17 66 5 0 7 5 CON
Richmond Centre CON 38 43 10 0 6 3 LEANS CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 23 15 7 0 52 3 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 18 29 35 0 8 10 LEANS NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 27 28 31 0 9 5 LEANS NDP
South Surrey—White Rock CON 44 37 7 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Steveston—Richmond East CON 44 36 10 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
Surrey Centre LIB 50 20 18 0 7 5 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 56 16 22 0 3 3 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 55 13 17 0 12 4 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 29 8 45 0 17 2 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 26 16 3 0 5 50 OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 34 16 39 0 7 3 LEANS NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 54 23 9 0 11 2 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 55 24 13 0 6 2 LIB
Victoria NDP 51 12 21 0 12 4 LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 45 21 9 0 22 3 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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