Next Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Monday, June 8, 2020 at 10:52 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
35.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
39.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 39.5%
Change since last election: ▲13.4%
43.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.4%
Change since last election: ▼3.7%
33.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
18.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
20.9%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 20.9%
Change since last election: ▼3.5%
22.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.4%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.4%
Change since last election: ▼5.1%
8.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
1.8%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 1.8%
Change since last election: ▼1.1%
2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
14 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
21
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▲10
31 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼7
19 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼1
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▼1
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▼1
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 29 51 15 0 4 1 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 54 7 33 0 5 1 LIB
Burnaby South NDP 32 24 41 0 2 1 LEANS NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 30 51 12 0 4 2 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 41 39 15 0 4 1 LEANS LIB
Chilliwack—Hope CON 27 50 14 0 6 2 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City CON 47 34 16 0 3 0 LIB
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 51 29 16 0 3 0 LIB
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 22 32 39 0 7 0 LEANS NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 29 20 35 0 16 1 LEANS NDP
Delta LIB 51 30 14 0 3 2 LIB
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 30 17 33 0 19 1 LEANS NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 52 32 12 0 2 3 LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 40 42 4 0 10 5 LEANS CON
Kelowna—Lake Country CON 50 36 10 0 4 1 LIB
Kootenay—Columbia CON 16 45 32 0 6 1 CON
Langley—Aldergrove CON 37 43 14 0 4 1 LEANS CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CON 40 39 12 0 7 1 TOSS-UP
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 25 26 22 0 24 1 TOSS-UP
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 38 16 42 0 4 1 LEANS NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 20 31 37 0 10 1 LEANS NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 34 45 13 0 6 1 CON
North Vancouver LIB 59 22 11 0 8 0 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CON 41 34 20 0 3 1 LEANS LIB
Port Moody—Coquitlam CON 45 24 28 0 3 1 LIB
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 18 70 7 0 3 2 CON
Richmond Centre CON 40 45 12 0 2 1 LEANS CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 29 18 9 0 44 0 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 21 32 39 0 3 4 LEANS NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 31 28 36 0 4 2 LEANS NDP
South Surrey—White Rock CON 45 41 9 0 4 0 LEANS LIB
Steveston—Richmond East CON 47 37 12 0 3 0 LEANS LIB
Surrey Centre LIB 54 22 19 0 3 2 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 58 17 24 0 1 0 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 60 13 19 0 7 1 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 29 10 50 0 10 0 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 37 22 6 0 2 33 LEANS LIB
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 38 18 40 0 3 0 LEANS NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 58 24 12 0 6 0 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 59 23 15 0 2 0 LIB
Victoria NDP 53 15 25 0 7 1 LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 49 23 12 0 15 1 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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