Next Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Sunday, April 12, 2020 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
28.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.7%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 31.7%
Change since last election: ▲5.6%
34.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
25.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 28.4%
Change since last election: ▼5.7%
31.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
22.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
25.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 25.2%
Change since last election: ▲0.8%
27.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
8.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
9.9%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 9.9%
Change since last election: ▼2.6%
10.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
4.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.7%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.7%
Change since last election: ▲1.8%
5.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
7 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
18
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 18
Change since last election: ▲7
23 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
6 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
11
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▼6
20 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼1
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲0
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 24 48 18 0 6 4 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 45 6 38 0 7 4 LEANS LIB
Burnaby South NDP 23 21 48 0 4 3 NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 24 49 16 0 7 4 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 32 39 19 0 6 4 LEANS CON
Chilliwack—Hope CON 23 46 18 0 8 6 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City CON 40 32 20 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 42 28 22 0 6 3 LIB
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 16 29 44 0 10 1 NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 21 19 39 0 18 3 NDP
Delta LIB 45 28 17 0 5 5 LIB
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 22 15 37 0 23 3 NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 43 30 17 0 4 6 LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 32 39 7 0 13 9 LEANS CON
Kelowna—Lake Country CON 41 37 13 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Kootenay—Columbia CON 12 41 36 0 8 4 LEANS CON
Langley—Aldergrove CON 30 42 18 0 6 4 CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CON 33 37 17 0 10 4 LEANS CON
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 18 23 26 0 30 4 LEANS GRN
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 29 15 47 0 6 4 NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 16 28 41 0 12 4 NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 27 44 17 0 9 4 CON
North Vancouver LIB 51 21 15 0 11 2 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CON 34 32 25 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Port Moody—Coquitlam CON 36 24 32 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 14 66 10 0 5 5 CON
Richmond Centre CON 33 44 16 0 4 3 CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 21 16 12 0 48 3 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 15 28 43 0 5 8 NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 23 27 40 0 7 4 NDP
South Surrey—White Rock CON 40 38 13 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Steveston—Richmond East CON 40 36 16 0 5 2 LEANS LIB
Surrey Centre LIB 45 20 25 0 5 5 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 50 16 29 0 2 3 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 50 13 24 0 10 3 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 24 8 54 0 13 2 NDP
Vancouver Granville OTH 24 16 8 0 3 49 OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 29 16 48 0 5 2 NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 50 23 16 0 9 2 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 50 24 19 0 4 2 LIB
Victoria NDP 46 12 29 0 10 3 LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 41 22 15 0 19 3 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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