last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

[dylan_tabs style=”minimal-tabs” alignment=”center”]
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Atlantic Canada vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
42% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
46.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 46.6%
Change since last election: ▲5.7%
51.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
23.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
25.8%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 25.8%
Change since last election: ▼2.8%
28.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
13.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
15.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 15.4%
Change since last election: ▼0.4%
16.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
7.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
8.4%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 8.4%
Change since last election: ▼3.9%
9.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.8%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.8%
Change since last election: ▲1.4%
4.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Atlantic Canada seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
19 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
28
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 28
Change since last election: ▲2
31 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▼1
12 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”New Brunswick riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Acadie—Bathurst LIB 62 19 14 0 5 1 LIB
Beauséjour LIB 53 16 7 0 21 3 LIB
Fredericton GRN 38 28 2 0 28 4 LEANS LIB
Fundy Royal CON 30 44 10 0 11 6 CON
Madawaska—Restigouche LIB 59 23 7 0 11 1 LIB
Miramichi—Grand Lake LIB 39 35 8 0 7 11 LEANS LIB
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe LIB 49 21 11 0 13 6 LIB
New Brunswick Southwest CON 30 47 9 0 9 5 CON
Saint John—Rothesay LIB 42 30 12 0 7 9 LIB
Tobique—Mactaquac CON 29 49 8 0 10 4 CON
[dylan_page_title title=”Newfoundland and Labrador riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Avalon LIB 59 24 14 0 2 0 LIB
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity LIB 51 36 12 0 0 1 LIB
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame LIB 55 31 12 0 1 1 LIB
Labrador LIB 47 28 25 0 0 1 LIB
Long Range Mountains LIB 51 26 20 0 1 2 LIB
St. John's East NDP 30 22 46 0 1 1 NDP
St. John's South—Mount Pearl LIB 56 17 25 0 0 2 LIB
[dylan_page_title title=”Nova Scotia riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Cape Breton—Canso LIB 45 30 15 0 4 6 LIB
Central Nova LIB 49 25 18 0 4 4 LIB
Cumberland—Colchester LIB 41 28 18 0 9 4 LIB
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LIB 51 14 26 0 6 3 LIB
Halifax LIB 48 10 29 0 10 3 LIB
Halifax West LIB 56 16 19 0 8 1 LIB
Kings—Hants LIB 48 22 17 0 9 4 LIB
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook LIB 53 17 16 0 11 3 LIB
South Shore—St. Margarets LIB 48 25 15 0 8 4 LIB
Sydney—Victoria LIB 30 29 19 0 2 21 TOSS-UP
West Nova CON 42 37 11 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
[dylan_page_title title=”Prince Edward Island (PEI) riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Cardigan LIB 55 26 7 0 10 2 LIB
Charlottetown LIB 55 19 6 0 18 2 LIB
Egmont LIB 47 32 6 0 15 1 LIB
Malpeque LIB 48 24 6 0 21 1 LIB
[dylan_page_title title=”Regional projections & riding-level data” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[/dylan_tabs]

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics