Next Canadian Federal Election Region: Atlantic Canada
last updated: Friday, February 14, 2020 at 20:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected Atlantic Canada vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
36%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 40%
Most likely vote total: 40%
Change since last election: ▼0.9% 44%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
22.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 24.7%
Most likely vote total: 24.7%
Change since last election: ▼3.9% 27.2%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
19.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 21.3%
Most likely vote total: 21.3%
Change since last election: ▲5.5% 23.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
10.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 11.3%
Most likely vote total: 11.3%
Change since last election: ▼1% 12.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
2.3%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 2.6%
Most likely vote total: 2.6%
Change since last election: ▲0.2% 2.8%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected Atlantic Canada seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
13 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 25
Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▼1 27 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
2 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 5
Most likely seat total: 5
Change since last election: ▲1 12 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0 9 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1 5 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
New Brunswick riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AcadieóBathurst | LIB | 54 | 18 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 0 | LIB |
| BeausÈjour | LIB | 46 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 25 | 2 | LIB |
| Fredericton | GRN | 31 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 34 | 3 | LEANS GRN |
| Fundy Royal | CON | 23 | 43 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 4 | CON |
| MadawaskaóRestigouche | LIB | 53 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 0 | LIB |
| MiramichióGrand Lake | LIB | 33 | 34 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 8 | TOSS-UP |
| MonctonóRiverviewóDieppe | LIB | 42 | 21 | 17 | 0 | 16 | 4 | LIB |
| New Brunswick Southwest | CON | 25 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 4 | CON |
| Saint JohnóRothesay | LIB | 36 | 30 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 7 | LEANS LIB |
| TobiqueóMactaquac | CON | 24 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 3 | CON |
Newfoundland and Labrador riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalon | LIB | 53 | 24 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 0 | LIB |
| BonavistaóBurinóTrinity | LIB | 45 | 36 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | LEANS LIB |
| Coast of BaysóCentralóNotre Dame | LIB | 48 | 30 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | LIB |
| Labrador | LIB | 40 | 27 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | LEANS LIB |
| Long Range Mountains | LIB | 45 | 24 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LIB |
| St. John's East | NDP | 24 | 21 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 0 | NDP |
| St. John's SouthóMount Pearl | LIB | 48 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | LIB |
Nova Scotia riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape BretonóCanso | LIB | 39 | 29 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Central Nova | LIB | 42 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 3 | LIB |
| CumberlandóColchester | LIB | 35 | 26 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| DartmouthóCole Harbour | LIB | 44 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LIB |
| Halifax | LIB | 40 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 12 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Halifax West | LIB | 49 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 11 | 0 | LIB |
| KingsóHants | LIB | 41 | 21 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 2 | LIB |
| SackvilleóPrestonóChezzetcook | LIB | 46 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 14 | 2 | LIB |
| South ShoreóSt. Margarets | LIB | 41 | 24 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 3 | LIB |
| SydneyóVictoria | LIB | 24 | 28 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 16 | LEANS CON |
| West Nova | CON | 36 | 35 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
Prince Edward Island (PEI) riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardigan | LIB | 48 | 26 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 1 | LIB |
| Charlottetown | LIB | 49 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 22 | 1 | LIB |
| Egmont | LIB | 39 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 19 | 0 | LEANS LIB |
| Malpeque | LIB | 41 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 25 | 0 | LIB |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.