last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

[dylan_tabs style=”minimal-tabs” alignment=”center”]
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Alberta vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
20.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
22.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 22.6%
Change since last election: ▲8.9%
24.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
45.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
50.6%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 50.6%
Change since last election: ▼18.6%
55.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.1%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.1%
Change since last election: ▲6.6%
19.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
2.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.1%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 3.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
3.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5.5%
Change since last election: ▲2.8%
6.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected Alberta seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲3
10 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
22 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
30
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 30
Change since last election: ▼3
32 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
1 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
2 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”Alberta riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Banff—Airdrie CON 19 52 18 0 5 7 CON
Battle River—Crowfoot CON 10 69 12 0 3 6 CON
Bow River CON 14 66 11 0 2 7 CON
Calgary Centre CON 38 38 15 0 4 5 TOSS-UP
Calgary Confederation CON 32 37 17 0 9 5 LEANS CON
Calgary Forest Lawn CON 32 38 17 0 3 9 LEANS CON
Calgary Heritage CON 23 52 15 0 4 6 CON
Calgary Midnapore CON 19 56 16 0 3 5 CON
Calgary Nose Hill CON 25 51 16 0 3 5 CON
Calgary Rocky Ridge CON 27 50 14 0 3 5 CON
Calgary Shepard CON 19 56 16 0 3 5 CON
Calgary Signal Hill CON 25 51 15 0 4 6 CON
Calgary Skyview CON 35 35 23 0 2 6 TOSS-UP
Edmonton Centre CON 43 23 27 0 3 5 LIB
Edmonton Griesbach CON 25 34 33 0 3 6 TOSS-UP
Edmonton Manning CON 31 35 26 0 2 6 LEANS CON
Edmonton Mill Woods CON 45 32 17 0 2 4 LIB
Edmonton Riverbend CON 30 40 23 0 3 4 LEANS CON
Edmonton Strathcona NDP 25 25 44 0 2 4 NDP
Edmonton West CON 29 43 21 0 3 5 CON
Edmonton—Wetaskiwin CON 21 53 19 0 2 5 CON
Foothills CON 13 65 13 0 4 6 CON
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CON 18 62 11 0 2 7 CON
Grande Prairie—Mackenzie CON 11 67 13 0 2 6 CON
Lakeland CON 10 69 12 0 2 6 CON
Lethbridge CON 22 45 23 0 3 6 CON
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CON 14 62 15 0 3 7 CON
Peace River—Westlock CON 15 62 14 0 3 6 CON
Red Deer—Lacombe CON 12 62 15 0 3 8 CON
Red Deer—Mountain View CON 12 65 13 0 3 7 CON
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CON 18 54 20 0 2 5 CON
St. Albert—Edmonton CON 28 49 20 0 3 0 CON
Sturgeon River—Parkland CON 15 58 17 0 3 6 CON
Yellowhead CON 12 65 13 0 3 7 CON
[dylan_page_title title=”Regional projections & riding-level data” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[/dylan_tabs]

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics