Next Canadian Federal Election

last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 20:25 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected nationwide vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
36.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 36.3%
Change since last election: ▲3.7%
39.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.7%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.7%
Change since last election: ▼3.1%
34.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.2%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
20% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.7%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 6.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
7.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5%
Change since last election: ▼1.4%
5.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.1%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.3%
2.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected nationwide seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
151 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
176
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 176
Change since last election: ▲19
192 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
94 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
107
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 107
Change since last election: ▼14
127 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
14 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
24
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 24
Change since last election: ▲0
38 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5
38 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Interactive map: Projected election results

Trend lines of all national polls published

(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Leger 2020-10-04 36 32 20 7 4 1 0.509
Abacus 2020-09-28 35 30 17 6 7 5 0.103
Leger 2020-09-27 40 30 17 8 5 0 0
Mainstreet 2020-09-24 37.1 34.6 15.2 4.8 4.6 3.7 0.061
Abacus 2020-09-21 35 32 17 6 8 2 0
Leger 2020-09-20 35 30 19 8 6 2 0
Campaign 2020-09-15 40 30 15 6 7 2 0.071
Research Co. 2020-09-13 38 32 17 8 3 2 0.056
Leger 2020-09-13 35 31 18 7 6 3 0
Leger 2020-09-06 34 32 19 7 6 2 0
Abacus 2020-09-03 33 31 18 7 7 4 0
Angus Reid 2020-09-01 35 35 17 7 4 2 0.053
Innovative 2020-09-01 38 28 16 7 7 4 0.04
Leger 2020-08-30 35 29 21 8 5 2 0
Leger 2020-08-23 38 30 18 7 6 1 0
Abacus 2020-08-19 36 30 18 6 5 5 0
Ipsos 2020-08-18 35 32 18 7 7 1 0.06
Innovative 2020-08-18 40 28 16 7 6 3 0
Leger 2020-08-16 35 32 18 8 6 1 0
Campaign 2020-08-13 30 33 18 7 8 4 0
Mainstreet 2020-08-12 41.3 28.9 15.6 5.5 5.2 3.5 0
Leger 2020-08-09 36 29 15 8 8 4 0
Leger 2020-08-02 33 31 20 8 6 2 0
Abacus 2020-07-29 34 30 17 8 6 5 0
Leger 2020-07-26 35 29 20 9 6 1 0
EKOS 2020-07-22 34.7 30 15.2 6.5 7.6 6 0.046
Innovative 2020-07-20 40 28 14 7 7 4 0
Leger 2020-07-19 39 28 17 7 7 2 0
EKOS 2020-07-16 33.2 29.5 18.2 6.6 7.6 4.9 0
Abacus 2020-07-16 36 31 16 7 7 3 0

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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