Next Canadian Federal Election

last updated: Friday, February 14, 2020 at 20:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected nationwide vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
29.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33.1%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 33.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.9%
36.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.7%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.7%
Change since last election: ▼3.1%
34.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.4%
20.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 7%
Change since last election: ▼0.3%
7.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.3%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.3%
Change since last election: ▲0.6%
8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.4%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.4%
Change since last election: ▲0.5%
2.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected nationwide seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
135 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
163
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 163
Change since last election: ▲6
172 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
100 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
115
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 115
Change since last election: ▼6
137 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
25
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▲1
43 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
20 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
29
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 29
Change since last election: ▼3
39 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
4
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 4
Change since last election: ▲1
11 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all national polls published

(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Leger 2020-01-30 34 32 19 7 7 1 0.502
Abacus 2020-01-23 34 30 17 6 8 5 0.08
Leger 2020-01-21 31 32 19 8 8 2 0
Mainstreet 2020-01-17 39.8 32.4 10.6 6.6 5.4 5.2 0.031
Leger 2020-01-07 34 31 18 7 8 2 0
Abacus 2019-12-16 33 30 18 7 8 4 0
Angus Reid 2019-12-15 30 33 19 8 7 3 0.053
Ekos 2019-12-10 31.1 29.6 16.8 5.8 9.8 6.9 0.036
Leger 2019-11-25 32 30 19 7 7 5 0
Nanos 2019-10-20 31.7 32.5 20.8 7.2 6 1.8 0.054
Mainstreet 2019-10-20 31.6 32.2 18.3 7.9 6.1 3.9 0
Research Co. 2019-10-20 32 31 19 7 8 3 0.041
Ekos 2019-10-20 34.2 30 18.3 5 8.1 4.4 0
Campaign 2019-10-20 31.4 31.3 17.8 6.6 9.1 3.8 0.041
Ipsos 2019-10-19 31 33 18 7 6 5 0.041
Abacus 2019-10-19 34 32 16 8 8 2 0
Nanos 2019-10-19 31 31.5 18.8 7 9.5 2.2 0
Campaign 2019-10-19 31.7 31.4 17.4 6.6 9.1 3.8 0
Forum 2019-10-18 31.7 29.9 17.5 9 8.3 3.6 0.054
Leger 2019-10-18 33 33 18 8 6 2 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-18 32.8 31.9 18.3 7.2 5.5 4.3 0
Nanos 2019-10-18 32.6 30.3 18.4 7.1 9.3 2.3 0
Campaign 2019-10-18 31 31 18 7 9 4 0
Innovative 2019-10-17 34 30 19 6 8 3 0.025
Innovative 2019-10-17 33 31 14 9 8 5 0
Ekos 2019-10-17 31 32.5 17.6 5.5 7.9 5.5 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-17 32.1 31.9 18.8 7.6 5.8 3.8 0
Nanos 2019-10-17 31.5 31.6 19 6.2 9.5 2.2 0
DART 2019-10-16 29 33 21 8 7 2 0.041
Forum 2019-10-16 30 29 20 7 8 6 0

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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