Next Canadian Federal Election

last updated: Monday, June 8, 2020 at 10:52 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected nationwide vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
36.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
40.7%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 40.7%
Change since last election: ▲7.8%
44.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
25.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 28.4%
Change since last election: ▼6.7%
31.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
13.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
14.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 14.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
16.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.9%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 6.9%
Change since last election: ▼0.7%
7.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
5.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6.6%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
7.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.7%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.7%
Change since last election: ▲0.4%
2.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected nationwide seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
177 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
196
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 196
Change since last election: ▲39
216 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
75 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
94
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 94
Change since last election: ▼27
108 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
10 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
22
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 22
Change since last election: ▼2
32 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
15 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
24
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 24
Change since last election: ▼8
37 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▼2
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all national polls published

(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Innovative 2020-06-01 42 28 12 7 7 4 0.315
Leger 2020-05-31 40 27 18 7 7 1 0.326
Leger 2020-05-25 41 27 15 7 6 4 0
Angus Reid 2020-05-24 37 31 17 7 5 3 0.102
Leger 2020-05-17 44 25 15 7 7 2 0
Abacus 2020-05-17 39 31 16 7 6 1 0.106
Leger 2020-05-10 41 28 17 7 6 1 0
Mainstreet 2020-05-07 43.3 29.4 11.5 5.8 5.9 4.1 0.089
Ekos 2020-05-07 42.7 28.3 10.6 6.7 6.7 5 0.062
Innovative 2020-05-05 41 28 13 6 7 5 0
Leger 2020-05-03 44 25 15 7 6 3 0
Leger 2020-04-26 43 28 14 7 6 2 0
Leger 2020-04-19 42 29 14 8 5 2 0
Angus Reid 2020-04-17 36 33 17 8 4 2 0
Leger 2020-04-12 39 28 18 6 8 1 0
Innovative 2020-04-02 40 27 15 8 7 3 0
Ekos 2020-03-26 40.4 28.6 12.2 8.6 5.9 4.3 0
Mainstreet 2020-03-17 38.6 32.2 11.1 8.8 5.7 3.6 0
Leger 2020-03-02 32 30 20 8 8 2 0
Angus Reid 2020-02-28 26 34 21 9 7 3 0
Campaign 2020-02-26 30 30 19 8 11 2 0
Leger 2020-01-30 34 32 19 7 7 1 0
Abacus 2020-01-23 34 30 17 6 8 5 0
Leger 2020-01-21 31 32 19 8 8 2 0
Mainstreet 2020-01-17 39.8 32.4 10.6 6.6 5.4 5.2 0
Leger 2020-01-07 34 31 18 7 8 2 0
Abacus 2019-12-16 33 30 18 7 8 4 0
Angus Reid 2019-12-15 30 33 19 8 7 3 0
Ekos 2019-12-10 31.1 29.6 16.8 5.8 9.8 6.9 0
Leger 2019-11-25 32 30 19 7 7 5 0

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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