Next Canadian Federal Election

last updated: Sunday, April 12, 2020 at 16:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected nationwide vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
32.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
36.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 36.6%
Change since last election: ▲4.8%
40.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
26% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.9%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 28.9%
Change since last election: ▼5.8%
31.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
14.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.1%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 16.1%
Change since last election: ▼0.9%
17.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
7.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
8%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 8%
Change since last election: ▲0.3%
8.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.3%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.3%
Change since last election: ▲0.7%
8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.1%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.9%
3.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected nationwide seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
157 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
184
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 184
Change since last election: ▲27
195 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
81 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
96
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 96
Change since last election: ▼25
115 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
15 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
21
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▼3
38 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
21 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
32
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 32
Change since last election: ▲0
43 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲0
9 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all national polls published

(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Innovative 2020-04-02 40 27 15 8 7 3 0.497
Ekos 2020-03-26 40.4 28.6 12.2 8.6 5.9 4.3 0.074
Mainstreet 2020-03-17 38.6 32.2 11.1 8.8 5.7 3.6 0.071
Leger 2020-03-02 32 30 20 8 8 2 0.146
Angus Reid 2020-02-28 26 34 21 9 7 3 0.076
Campaign 2020-02-26 30 30 19 8 11 2 0.07
Leger 2020-01-30 34 32 19 7 7 1 0
Abacus 2020-01-23 34 30 17 6 8 5 0.065
Leger 2020-01-21 31 32 19 8 8 2 0
Mainstreet 2020-01-17 39.8 32.4 10.6 6.6 5.4 5.2 0
Leger 2020-01-07 34 31 18 7 8 2 0
Abacus 2019-12-16 33 30 18 7 8 4 0
Angus Reid 2019-12-15 30 33 19 8 7 3 0
Ekos 2019-12-10 31.1 29.6 16.8 5.8 9.8 6.9 0
Leger 2019-11-25 32 30 19 7 7 5 0
Nanos 2019-10-20 31.7 32.5 20.8 7.2 6 1.8 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-20 31.6 32.2 18.3 7.9 6.1 3.9 0
Research Co. 2019-10-20 32 31 19 7 8 3 0
Ekos 2019-10-20 34.2 30 18.3 5 8.1 4.4 0
Campaign 2019-10-20 31.4 31.3 17.8 6.6 9.1 3.8 0
Ipsos 2019-10-19 31 33 18 7 6 5 0
Abacus 2019-10-19 34 32 16 8 8 2 0
Nanos 2019-10-19 31 31.5 18.8 7 9.5 2.2 0
Campaign 2019-10-19 31.7 31.4 17.4 6.6 9.1 3.8 0
Forum 2019-10-18 31.7 29.9 17.5 9 8.3 3.6 0
Leger 2019-10-18 33 33 18 8 6 2 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-18 32.8 31.9 18.3 7.2 5.5 4.3 0
Nanos 2019-10-18 32.6 30.3 18.4 7.1 9.3 2.3 0
Campaign 2019-10-18 31 31 18 7 9 4 0
Innovative 2019-10-17 34 30 19 6 8 3 0

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!