last updated: Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 20:15 (Eastern Daylight Time)

[dylan_tabs style=”minimal-tabs” alignment=”center”]
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected nationwide vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
31.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
34.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 34.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.4%
38.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.5%
Change since last election: ▼4%
33.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.8%
Change since last election: ▲2.1%
20.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6.7%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 6.7%
Change since last election: ▼0.9%
7.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
5.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 6%
Change since last election: ▼0.8%
6.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
3.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Projected nationwide seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
145 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
172
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 172
Change since last election: ▲15
185 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
93 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
109
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 109
Change since last election: ▼12
128 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
25
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 25
Change since last election: ▲1
43 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
18 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
27
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 27
Change since last election: ▼5
37 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Green logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
[dylan_page_title title=”Interactive map: Projected election results” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all national polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[dylan_page_title title=”(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Angus Reid 2021-02-19 34 31 20 7 5 3 0.428
Leger 2021-02-14 36 29 20 6 7 2 0.133
Ipsos 2021-02-10 33 30 20 8 8 1 0.063
Abacus 2021-02-03 32 31 18 8 7 4 0.061
Innovative 2021-02-01 38 28 15 7 8 4 0.035
Leger 2021-01-31 37 28 22 7 5 1 0
Campaign 2021-01-30 34 30 19 6 8 3 0.056
EKOS 2021-01-27 34.3 30.9 15 5.7 7.7 6.4 0.055
Angus Reid 2021-01-24 35 30 20 6 5 4 0
Mainstreet 2021-01-20 39.3 31.9 14.4 5.2 5.2 4 0.05
Leger 2021-01-17 36 29 21 7 6 1 0
Abacus 2021-01-12 35 31 17 8 6 3 0
Ipsos 2021-01-06 36 29 19 6 8 2 0
Leger 2021-01-03 35 30 20 7 6 2 0
Pollara 2020-12-23 38 29 18 7 6 2 0.044
Abacus 2020-12-18 35 32 17 7 7 2 0
Research Co. 2020-12-14 37 31 20 7 3 2 0.032
Ipsos 2020-12-14 35 32 18 7 7 1 0
Leger 2020-12-13 35 29 23 7 5 1 0
Campaign 2020-12-03 35 32 19 5 6 3 0
Angus Reid 2020-11-30 34 33 19 6 4 4 0
Leger 2020-11-29 34 30 20 7 7 2 0
Mainstreet 2020-11-26 39 31.7 12.3 5.1 6.7 5.2 0
Ekos 2020-11-26 35 31.3 13.9 6.9 6.8 6.1 0.018
Delphi 2020-11-25 38 32 16 6 6 2 0.025
Abacus 2020-11-24 36 30 16 7 5 6 0
Ipsos 2020-11-23 36 31 17 8 7 1 0
Leger 2020-11-15 35 31 18 8 6 2 0
Abacus 2020-11-12 38 30 15 8 6 3 0
Angus Reid 2020-11-09 35 33 18 7 5 2 0
[dylan_page_title title=”Regional projections & riding-level data” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
[/dylan_tabs]

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics