Next Canadian Federal Election

last updated: Sunday, August 16 at 00:04 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected nationwide vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
33.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
36.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 36.9%
Change since last election: ▲4.7%
40.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
26.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
29.1%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 29.1%
Change since last election: ▼5%
32% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
13.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
15%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 15%
Change since last election: ▼1.1%
16.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.5%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 7.5%
Change since last election: ▼0.1%
8.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.1%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
7.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.3%
Change since last election: ▲1.4%
4.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected nationwide seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
153 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
179
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 179
Change since last election: ▲22
196 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
87 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
103
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 103
Change since last election: ▼18
120 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
11 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
21
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▼3
33 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
20 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
31
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 31
Change since last election: ▼1
41 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1
10 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲1
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all national polls published

(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Leger 2020-08-09 36 29 15 8 8 4 0.534
Leger 2020-08-02 33 31 20 8 6 2 0
Abacus 2020-07-29 34 30 17 8 6 5 0.104
Leger 2020-07-26 35 29 20 9 6 1 0
EKOS 2020-07-22 34.7 30 15.2 6.5 7.6 6 0.09
Innovative 2020-07-20 40 28 14 7 7 4 0.056
Leger 2020-07-19 39 28 17 7 7 2 0
EKOS 2020-07-16 33.2 29.5 18.2 6.6 7.6 4.9 0
Abacus 2020-07-16 36 31 16 7 7 3 0
Leger 2020-07-12 38 26 19 8 7 2 0
Leger 2020-07-05 39 25 20 8 5 3 0
Leger 2020-06-28 40 28 17 7 6 2 0
Mainstreet 2020-06-26 43.2 27.4 14.1 5.7 4.8 4.8 0.085
Innovative 2020-06-23 41 27 15 6 8 3 0
Leger 2020-06-21 39 28 19 7 5 2 0
Abacus 2020-06-21 40 29 16 7 6 2 0
EKOS 2020-06-16 40.5 29.9 12.7 5.1 6.5 5.3 0
Leger 2020-06-14 40 27 16 7 7 3 0
Abacus 2020-06-11 39 29 19 6 5 2 0
Leger 2020-06-07 46 25 15 7 6 1 0
Innovative 2020-06-01 42 28 12 7 7 4 0
Leger 2020-05-31 40 27 18 7 7 1 0
Leger 2020-05-25 41 27 15 7 6 4 0
Angus Reid 2020-05-24 37 31 17 7 5 3 0.079
Leger 2020-05-17 44 25 15 7 7 2 0
Abacus 2020-05-17 39 31 16 7 6 1 0
Leger 2020-05-10 41 28 17 7 6 1 0
Mainstreet 2020-05-07 43.3 29.4 11.5 5.8 5.9 4.1 0
Ekos 2020-05-07 42.7 28.3 10.6 6.7 6.7 5 0.05
Innovative 2020-05-05 41 28 13 6 7 5 0

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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