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last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2020 at 08:45 (Eastern Daylight Time)

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Vote projections

[dylan_page_title title=”Projected BC vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
NDP NDP logo
43.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
47.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 47.5%
Change since last election: ▲7.2%
51.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
33.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
36.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 36.6%
Change since last election: ▼3.8%
39.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
13.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
14.4%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 14.4%
Change since last election: ▼2.4%
15.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
1.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 1.5%
Change since last election: ▼1%
1.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Seat projections

[dylan_page_title title=”Projected BC seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
NDP NDP logo
43 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
50
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 50
Change since last election: ▲9
59 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
26 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
34
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 34
Change since last election: ▼9
41 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0%
Change since last election: ▲0
1 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Interactive map

[dylan_page_title title=”Interactive map: Projected election results” subtitle=”click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

Trend lines

[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

BC polls

[dylan_page_title title=”(Almost*) All BC election opinion polls:” subtitle=”*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Polling Firm: Date: NDP Lib. Green Other Poll weight:
Mainstreet 2020-10-23 51 31 16 3 0.164
Research Co 2020-10-23 49.75 34.75 12.75 2.75 0.141
Ipsos 2020-10-22 51 34 13 2 0.094
Leger 2020-10-21 47 36 14 3 0.267
Angus Reid 2020-10-20 45 35 16 4 0.208
Angus Reid 2020-10-15 48.75 32.75 13.75 4.75 0.008
Insights West 2020-10-14 47 33 14 6 0.023
Ipsos 2020-10-11 52 34 11 3 0
Leger 2020-10-09 50 35 12 3 0.008
Research Co 2020-10-07 48 36 13 3 0
Angus Reid 2020-10-03 49 31 14 6 0.005
Mainstreet 2020-09-29 45.2 33.7 15.9 5.3 0
Leger 2020-09-28 47 31 12 9 0.008
Ipsos 2020-09-28 51 33 12 4 0
Insights West 2020-09-23 42 29 16 13 0
Research Co 2020-09-23 44 37 13 5 0
Angus Reid 2020-09-01 48 29 14 9 0.004
Ekos 2020-08-28 51 25 14 10 0.05
Innovative 2020-07-20 38 36 12 14 0.018
Ekos 2020-07-17 46 29 13 12 0
Insights West 2020-06-28 47 29 11 13 0
Innovative 2020-06-23 42.4 32.3 12.1 13.1 0
Innovative 2020-06-01 44.3 35.1 10.3 10.3 0
Research Co 2020-05-25 40.2 32.4 15.7 11.8 0
Angus Reid 2020-05-24 46.5 28.7 11.9 12.9 0
Innovative 2020-05-05 42 36 10 12 0
Angus Reid 2020-02-28 36 31 21 12 0
Angus Reid 2019-12-11 40 33 18 9 0
Insights West 2019-11-09 35 32 14 19 0
Angus Reid 2019-09-18 34.3 31.3 20.2 14.1 0

Riding-by-riding vote projection

[dylan_page_title title=”BC riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]
Riding name: Notional incumbent NDP Lib. Green Other Projected winner  
Abbotsford—Mission LIB 33 51 12 4 LIB
Abbotsford South LIB 36 52 10 3 LIB
Abbotsford West LIB 35 47 15 2 LIB
Boundary—Similkameen LIB 49 46 0 5 LEANS NDP
Burnaby—Deer Lake NDP 54 36 10 0 NDP
Burnaby—Edmonds NDP 55 33 12 0 NDP
Burnaby—Lougheed NDP 61 28 12 0 NDP
Burnaby North NDP 57 31 11 0 NDP
Cariboo—Chilcoltin LIB 39 51 5 4 LIB
Cariboo North LIB 31 55 14 0 LIB
Chilliwack LIB 39 45 15 1 LIB
Chilliwack—Kent LIB 46 2 10 42 LEANS NDP
Columbia River—Revelstoke LIB 42 47 11 0 LEANS LIB
Coquitlam—Burke Mountain LIB 49 41 11 0 NDP
Coquitlam—Maillardville NDP 58 33 9 0 NDP
Courtenay—Comox NDP 48 37 16 0 NDP
Cowichan Valley GRN 35 25 40 0 LEANS GRN
Delta North NDP 55 35 10 0 NDP
Delta South LIB 35 49 16 0 LIB
Esquimalt—Metchosin NDP 56 23 21 0 NDP
Fraser—Nicola LIB 43 41 14 2 LEANS NDP
Kamloops—North Thompson LIB 36 45 20 0 LIB
Kamloops—South Thompson LIB 29 52 19 0 LIB
Kelowna—Lake Country LIB 33 54 11 2 LIB
Kelowna—Mission LIB 26 58 16 0 LIB
Kelowna West LIB 29 55 15 0 LIB
Kootenay East LIB 36 54 10 0 LIB
Kootenay West NDP 68 19 13 0 NDP
Langford—Juan de Fuca NDP 59 23 17 1 NDP
Langley LIB 40 40 14 6 TOSS-UP
Langley East LIB 35 49 14 1 LIB
Maple Ridge—Mission NDP 52 36 12 0 NDP
Maple Ridge—Pitt Meadows NDP 57 43 0 0 NDP
Mid Island—Pacific Rim NDP 55 21 19 5 NDP
Nanaimo NDP 54 28 18 0 NDP
Nanaimo—North Cowichan NDP 56 23 21 0 NDP
Nechako Lakes LIB 34 55 7 4 LIB
Nelson—Creston NDP 48 24 27 0 NDP
New Westminster NDP 59 17 22 2 NDP
North Coast NDP 63 30 7 0 NDP
North Island NDP 54 32 13 1 NDP
North Vancouver—Lonsdale NDP 52 33 14 0 NDP
North Vancouver—Seymour LIB 41 43 16 0 LEANS LIB
Oak Bay—Gordon Head GRN 34 22 44 0 GRN
Parksville—Qualicum LIB 34 43 23 0 LIB
Peace River North LIB 12 71 0 17 LIB
Peace River South LIB 28 71 0 0 LIB
Penticton LIB 36 48 16 0 LIB
Port Coquitlam NDP 62 27 11 0 NDP
Port Moody—Coquitlam NDP 54 35 11 0 NDP
Powell River—Sunshine Coast NDP 58 20 22 0 NDP
Prince George—Mackenzie LIB 39 52 9 0 LIB
Prince George—Valemount LIB 34 57 9 0 LIB
Richmond North Centre LIB 39 50 9 1 LIB
Richmond—Queensborough LIB 46 38 11 6 NDP
Richmond South Centre LIB 50 49 0 0 LEANS NDP
Richmond—Steveston LIB 49 47 0 3 LEANS NDP
Saanich North and the Islands GRN 36 22 42 0 GRN
Saanich South NDP 50 27 23 0 NDP
Shuswap LIB 35 51 14 0 LIB
Skeena LIB 46 51 0 3 LIB
Stikine NDP 56 36 0 7 NDP
Surrey—Cloverdale LIB 40 48 11 0 LIB
Surrey—Fleetwood NDP 47 43 10 0 LEANS NDP
Surrey—Green Timbers NDP 59 41 0 0 NDP
Surrey—Guildford NDP 67 33 0 0 NDP
Surrey—Newton NDP 57 34 8 2 NDP
Surrey—Panorama NDP 67 27 7 0 NDP
Surrey South LIB 56 39 5 0 NDP
Surrey—Whalley NDP 64 26 9 0 NDP
Surrey—White Rock LIB 37 46 14 4 LIB
Vancouver—Fairview NDP 63 26 11 0 NDP
Vancouver—False Creek LIB 45 41 13 1 NDP
Vancouver—Fraserview NDP 55 38 7 0 NDP
Vancouver—Hastings NDP 67 17 15 0 NDP
Vancouver—Kensington NDP 64 27 9 0 NDP
Vancouver—Kingsway NDP 66 24 7 2 NDP
Vancouver—Langara LIB 43 44 13 0 LEANS LIB
Vancouver—Mount Pleasant NDP 73 12 15 0 NDP
Vancouver—Point Grey NDP 65 27 8 0 NDP
Vancouver—Quilchena LIB 33 54 12 0 LIB
Vancouver—West End NDP 67 19 13 1 NDP
Vernon—Monashee LIB 36 44 19 1 LIB
Victoria—Beacon Hill NDP 62 11 26 0 NDP
Victoria—Swan Lake NDP 61 13 27 0 NDP
West Vancouver—Capilano LIB 29 53 18 0 LIB
West Vancouver—Sea to Sky LIB 34 40 26 0 LIB
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What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Calculated Politics