2020 British Columbia election
last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 16:20 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected BC vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
NDP  |
45.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 49.1%
Most likely vote total: 49.1%
Change since last election: ▲8.8% 53%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Liberal  |
34.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 37.1%
Most likely vote total: 37.1%
Change since last election: ▼3.3% 40.1%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
11.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 12.4%
Most likely vote total: 12.4%
Change since last election: ▼4.4% 13.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
1.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 1.3%
Most likely vote total: 1.3%
Change since last election: ▼1.2% 1.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected BC seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| NDP |
45 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 52
Most likely seat total: 52
Change since last election: ▲11 61 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Liberal |
26 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 33
Most likely seat total: 33
Change since last election: ▼10 39 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1 4 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0%
Change since last election: ▲0 0 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Interactive map: Projected election results
click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
Trend lines of all regional polls published
(Almost*) All BC election opinion polls:
*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.
| Polling Firm: | Date: | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 2020-10-11 | 52 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 0.275 |  |
| Leger | 2020-10-09 | 50 | 35 | 12 | 3 | 0.314 | |
| Research Co | 2020-10-07 | 48 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 0.055 | |
| Angus Reid | 2020-10-03 | 49 | 31 | 14 | 6 | 0.181 | |
| Mainstreet | 2020-09-29 | 45.2 | 33.7 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 0.043 | |
| Leger | 2020-09-28 | 47 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 0.009 | |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-28 | 51 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0 | |
| Insights West | 2020-09-23 | 42 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 0.02 | |
| Research Co | 2020-09-23 | 44 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2020-09-01 | 48 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 0.005 | |
| Ekos | 2020-08-28 | 51 | 25 | 14 | 10 | 0.059 | |
| Innovative | 2020-07-20 | 38 | 36 | 12 | 14 | 0.038 | |
| Ekos | 2020-07-17 | 46 | 29 | 13 | 12 | 0.001 | |
| Insights West | 2020-06-28 | 47 | 29 | 11 | 13 | 0 | |
| Innovative | 2020-06-23 | 42.4 | 32.3 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 0 | |
| Innovative | 2020-06-01 | 44.3 | 35.1 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 0 | |
| Research Co | 2020-05-25 | 40.2 | 32.4 | 15.7 | 11.8 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2020-05-24 | 46.5 | 28.7 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 0 | |
| Innovative | 2020-05-05 | 42 | 36 | 10 | 12 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2020-02-28 | 36 | 31 | 21 | 12 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2019-12-11 | 40 | 33 | 18 | 9 | 0 | |
| Insights West | 2019-11-09 | 35 | 32 | 14 | 19 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2019-09-18 | 34.3 | 31.3 | 20.2 | 14.1 | 0 | |
| Insights West | 2019-06-12 | 35 | 30 | 18 | 17 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2019-06-04 | 36.6 | 27.7 | 19.8 | 15.8 | 0 | |
| Research Co | 2019-05-22 | 39 | 30 | 21 | 10 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2019-03-24 | 37 | 34 | 16 | 13 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2019-03-21 | 39.4 | 32.3 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 0 | |
| Justason | 2019-03-13 | 30.3 | 31.3 | 16.2 | 22.2 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2019-01-14 | 37 | 35 | 15 | 13 | 0 | |
BC riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Notional incumbent | NDP | Lib. | Green | Other | Projected winner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford—Mission | LIB | 34 | 50 | 10 | 6 | LIB | |
| Abbotsford South | LIB | 37 | 51 | 8 | 4 | LIB | |
| Abbotsford West | LIB | 37 | 47 | 13 | 4 | LIB | |
| Boundary—Similkameen | LIB | 49 | 44 | 0 | 6 | LEANS NDP | |
| Burnaby—Deer Lake | NDP | 55 | 37 | 8 | 0 | NDP | |
| Burnaby—Edmonds | NDP | 57 | 33 | 11 | 0 | NDP | |
| Burnaby—Lougheed | NDP | 62 | 28 | 10 | 0 | NDP | |
| Burnaby North | NDP | 59 | 31 | 9 | 0 | NDP | |
| Cariboo—Chilcoltin | LIB | 39 | 50 | 4 | 6 | LIB | |
| Cariboo North | LIB | 33 | 56 | 12 | 0 | LIB | |
| Chilliwack | LIB | 40 | 45 | 13 | 2 | LIB | |
| Chilliwack—Kent | LIB | 42 | 47 | 10 | 0 | LIB | |
| Columbia River—Revelstoke | LIB | 43 | 47 | 10 | 0 | LEANS LIB | |
| Coquitlam—Burke Mountain | LIB | 51 | 40 | 9 | 0 | NDP | |
| Coquitlam—Maillardville | NDP | 59 | 33 | 8 | 0 | NDP | |
| Courtenay—Comox | NDP | 50 | 36 | 13 | 0 | NDP | |
| Cowichan Valley | GRN | 41 | 26 | 33 | 0 | NDP | |
| Delta North | NDP | 57 | 35 | 9 | 0 | NDP | |
| Delta South | LIB | 37 | 49 | 14 | 0 | LIB | |
| Esquimalt—Metchosin | NDP | 58 | 22 | 19 | 1 | NDP | |
| Fraser—Nicola | LIB | 44 | 42 | 11 | 3 | LEANS NDP | |
| Kamloops—North Thompson | LIB | 38 | 45 | 18 | 0 | LIB | |
| Kamloops—South Thompson | LIB | 31 | 53 | 17 | 0 | LIB | |
| Kelowna—Lake Country | LIB | 35 | 53 | 10 | 2 | LIB | |
| Kelowna—Mission | LIB | 27 | 58 | 14 | 0 | LIB | |
| Kelowna West | LIB | 31 | 55 | 14 | 0 | LIB | |
| Kootenay East | LIB | 37 | 54 | 8 | 0 | LIB | |
| Kootenay West | NDP | 70 | 19 | 11 | 0 | NDP | |
| Langford—Juan de Fuca | NDP | 60 | 23 | 14 | 2 | NDP | |
| Langley | LIB | 40 | 39 | 12 | 9 | LEANS NDP | |
| Langley East | LIB | 37 | 49 | 12 | 2 | LIB | |
| Maple Ridge—Mission | NDP | 54 | 35 | 10 | 0 | NDP | |
| Maple Ridge—Pitt Meadows | NDP | 58 | 42 | 0 | 0 | NDP | |
| Mid Island—Pacific Rim | NDP | 55 | 21 | 17 | 8 | NDP | |
| Nanaimo | NDP | 56 | 28 | 16 | 0 | NDP | |
| Nanaimo—North Cowichan | NDP | 59 | 23 | 18 | 0 | NDP | |
| Nechako Lakes | LIB | 34 | 55 | 5 | 6 | LIB | |
| Nelson—Creston | NDP | 50 | 25 | 25 | 0 | NDP | |
| New Westminster | NDP | 61 | 17 | 20 | 2 | NDP | |
| North Coast | NDP | 64 | 31 | 5 | 0 | NDP | |
| North Island | NDP | 55 | 32 | 11 | 2 | NDP | |
| North Vancouver—Lonsdale | NDP | 54 | 33 | 13 | 0 | NDP | |
| North Vancouver—Seymour | LIB | 43 | 43 | 14 | 0 | TOSS-UP | |
| Oak Bay—Gordon Head | GRN | 38 | 22 | 40 | 0 | LEANS GRN | |
| Parksville—Qualicum | LIB | 36 | 44 | 20 | 0 | LIB | |
| Peace River North | LIB | 12 | 65 | 0 | 22 | LIB | |
| Peace River South | LIB | 29 | 71 | 0 | 0 | LIB | |
| Penticton | LIB | 39 | 47 | 14 | 0 | LIB | |
| Port Coquitlam | NDP | 63 | 27 | 9 | 1 | NDP | |
| Port Moody—Coquitlam | NDP | 56 | 35 | 9 | 0 | NDP | |
| Powell River—Sunshine Coast | NDP | 60 | 20 | 19 | 0 | NDP | |
| Prince George—Mackenzie | LIB | 41 | 52 | 7 | 0 | LIB | |
| Prince George—Valemount | LIB | 35 | 57 | 8 | 0 | LIB | |
| Richmond North Centre | LIB | 41 | 50 | 8 | 2 | LIB | |
| Richmond—Queensborough | LIB | 50 | 50 | 0 | 0 | TOSS-UP | |
| Richmond South Centre | LIB | 49 | 36 | 8 | 7 | NDP | |
| Richmond—Steveston | LIB | 49 | 46 | 0 | 5 | LEANS NDP | |
| Saanich North and the Islands | GRN | 39 | 22 | 40 | 0 | LEANS GRN | |
| Saanich South | NDP | 52 | 27 | 21 | 0 | NDP | |
| Shuswap | LIB | 37 | 51 | 12 | 0 | LIB | |
| Skeena | LIB | 46 | 51 | 0 | 3 | LIB | |
| Stikine | NDP | 54 | 36 | 0 | 9 | NDP | |
| Surrey—Cloverdale | LIB | 42 | 48 | 10 | 0 | LIB | |
| Surrey—Fleetwood | NDP | 49 | 42 | 8 | 0 | NDP | |
| Surrey—Green Timbers | NDP | 60 | 33 | 7 | 0 | NDP | |
| Surrey—Guildford | NDP | 67 | 33 | 0 | 0 | NDP | |
| Surrey—Newton | NDP | 58 | 33 | 7 | 2 | NDP | |
| Surrey—Panorama | NDP | 68 | 27 | 5 | 0 | NDP | |
| Surrey South | LIB | 57 | 39 | 4 | 0 | NDP | |
| Surrey—Whalley | NDP | 66 | 27 | 8 | 0 | NDP | |
| Surrey—White Rock | LIB | 38 | 45 | 12 | 6 | LIB | |
| Vancouver—Fairview | NDP | 65 | 25 | 9 | 0 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—False Creek | LIB | 47 | 41 | 11 | 1 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—Fraserview | NDP | 57 | 38 | 6 | 0 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—Hastings | NDP | 69 | 18 | 13 | 0 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—Kensington | NDP | 66 | 26 | 7 | 0 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—Kingsway | NDP | 67 | 25 | 6 | 3 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—Langara | LIB | 45 | 44 | 11 | 0 | LEANS NDP | |
| Vancouver—Mount Pleasant | NDP | 74 | 13 | 13 | 0 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—Point Grey | NDP | 67 | 27 | 7 | 0 | NDP | |
| Vancouver—Quilchena | LIB | 35 | 55 | 11 | 0 | LIB | |
| Vancouver—West End | NDP | 68 | 19 | 11 | 2 | NDP | |
| Vernon—Monashee | LIB | 38 | 44 | 17 | 1 | LIB | |
| Victoria—Beacon Hill | NDP | 65 | 11 | 23 | 1 | NDP | |
| Victoria—Swan Lake | NDP | 63 | 13 | 24 | 0 | NDP | |
| West Vancouver—Capilano | LIB | 31 | 53 | 16 | 0 | LIB | |
| West Vancouver—Sea to Sky | LIB | 36 | 40 | 24 | 0 | LIB |
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.