2020 British Columbia election

last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 16:20 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
NDP NDP logo
45.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
49.1%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 49.1%
Change since last election: ▲8.8%
53% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
34.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
37.1%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 37.1%
Change since last election: ▼3.3%
40.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
11.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.4%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 12.4%
Change since last election: ▼4.4%
13.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
1.3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 1.3%
Change since last election: ▼1.2%
1.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
NDP NDP logo
45 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
52
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 52
Change since last election: ▲11
61 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Liberal Liberal logo
26 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
33
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 33
Change since last election: ▼10
39 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▼1
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0%
Change since last election: ▲0
0 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown

Trend lines of all regional polls published

(Almost*) All BC election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: NDP Lib. Green Other Poll weight:
Ipsos 2020-10-11 52 34 11 3 0.275
Leger 2020-10-09 50 35 12 3 0.314
Research Co 2020-10-07 48 36 13 3 0.055
Angus Reid 2020-10-03 49 31 14 6 0.181
Mainstreet 2020-09-29 45.2 33.7 15.9 5.3 0.043
Leger 2020-09-28 47 31 12 9 0.009
Ipsos 2020-09-28 51 33 12 4 0
Insights West 2020-09-23 42 29 16 13 0.02
Research Co 2020-09-23 44 37 13 5 0
Angus Reid 2020-09-01 48 29 14 9 0.005
Ekos 2020-08-28 51 25 14 10 0.059
Innovative 2020-07-20 38 36 12 14 0.038
Ekos 2020-07-17 46 29 13 12 0.001
Insights West 2020-06-28 47 29 11 13 0
Innovative 2020-06-23 42.4 32.3 12.1 13.1 0
Innovative 2020-06-01 44.3 35.1 10.3 10.3 0
Research Co 2020-05-25 40.2 32.4 15.7 11.8 0
Angus Reid 2020-05-24 46.5 28.7 11.9 12.9 0
Innovative 2020-05-05 42 36 10 12 0
Angus Reid 2020-02-28 36 31 21 12 0
Angus Reid 2019-12-11 40 33 18 9 0
Insights West 2019-11-09 35 32 14 19 0
Angus Reid 2019-09-18 34.3 31.3 20.2 14.1 0
Insights West 2019-06-12 35 30 18 17 0
Angus Reid 2019-06-04 36.6 27.7 19.8 15.8 0
Research Co 2019-05-22 39 30 21 10 0
Angus Reid 2019-03-24 37 34 16 13 0
Mainstreet 2019-03-21 39.4 32.3 13.1 15.2 0
Justason 2019-03-13 30.3 31.3 16.2 22.2 0
Mainstreet 2019-01-14 37 35 15 13 0

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Notional incumbent NDP Lib. Green Other Projected winner  
Abbotsford—Mission LIB 34 50 10 6 LIB
Abbotsford South LIB 37 51 8 4 LIB
Abbotsford West LIB 37 47 13 4 LIB
Boundary—Similkameen LIB 49 44 0 6 LEANS NDP
Burnaby—Deer Lake NDP 55 37 8 0 NDP
Burnaby—Edmonds NDP 57 33 11 0 NDP
Burnaby—Lougheed NDP 62 28 10 0 NDP
Burnaby North NDP 59 31 9 0 NDP
Cariboo—Chilcoltin LIB 39 50 4 6 LIB
Cariboo North LIB 33 56 12 0 LIB
Chilliwack LIB 40 45 13 2 LIB
Chilliwack—Kent LIB 42 47 10 0 LIB
Columbia River—Revelstoke LIB 43 47 10 0 LEANS LIB
Coquitlam—Burke Mountain LIB 51 40 9 0 NDP
Coquitlam—Maillardville NDP 59 33 8 0 NDP
Courtenay—Comox NDP 50 36 13 0 NDP
Cowichan Valley GRN 41 26 33 0 NDP
Delta North NDP 57 35 9 0 NDP
Delta South LIB 37 49 14 0 LIB
Esquimalt—Metchosin NDP 58 22 19 1 NDP
Fraser—Nicola LIB 44 42 11 3 LEANS NDP
Kamloops—North Thompson LIB 38 45 18 0 LIB
Kamloops—South Thompson LIB 31 53 17 0 LIB
Kelowna—Lake Country LIB 35 53 10 2 LIB
Kelowna—Mission LIB 27 58 14 0 LIB
Kelowna West LIB 31 55 14 0 LIB
Kootenay East LIB 37 54 8 0 LIB
Kootenay West NDP 70 19 11 0 NDP
Langford—Juan de Fuca NDP 60 23 14 2 NDP
Langley LIB 40 39 12 9 LEANS NDP
Langley East LIB 37 49 12 2 LIB
Maple Ridge—Mission NDP 54 35 10 0 NDP
Maple Ridge—Pitt Meadows NDP 58 42 0 0 NDP
Mid Island—Pacific Rim NDP 55 21 17 8 NDP
Nanaimo NDP 56 28 16 0 NDP
Nanaimo—North Cowichan NDP 59 23 18 0 NDP
Nechako Lakes LIB 34 55 5 6 LIB
Nelson—Creston NDP 50 25 25 0 NDP
New Westminster NDP 61 17 20 2 NDP
North Coast NDP 64 31 5 0 NDP
North Island NDP 55 32 11 2 NDP
North Vancouver—Lonsdale NDP 54 33 13 0 NDP
North Vancouver—Seymour LIB 43 43 14 0 TOSS-UP
Oak Bay—Gordon Head GRN 38 22 40 0 LEANS GRN
Parksville—Qualicum LIB 36 44 20 0 LIB
Peace River North LIB 12 65 0 22 LIB
Peace River South LIB 29 71 0 0 LIB
Penticton LIB 39 47 14 0 LIB
Port Coquitlam NDP 63 27 9 1 NDP
Port Moody—Coquitlam NDP 56 35 9 0 NDP
Powell River—Sunshine Coast NDP 60 20 19 0 NDP
Prince George—Mackenzie LIB 41 52 7 0 LIB
Prince George—Valemount LIB 35 57 8 0 LIB
Richmond North Centre LIB 41 50 8 2 LIB
Richmond—Queensborough LIB 50 50 0 0 TOSS-UP
Richmond South Centre LIB 49 36 8 7 NDP
Richmond—Steveston LIB 49 46 0 5 LEANS NDP
Saanich North and the Islands GRN 39 22 40 0 LEANS GRN
Saanich South NDP 52 27 21 0 NDP
Shuswap LIB 37 51 12 0 LIB
Skeena LIB 46 51 0 3 LIB
Stikine NDP 54 36 0 9 NDP
Surrey—Cloverdale LIB 42 48 10 0 LIB
Surrey—Fleetwood NDP 49 42 8 0 NDP
Surrey—Green Timbers NDP 60 33 7 0 NDP
Surrey—Guildford NDP 67 33 0 0 NDP
Surrey—Newton NDP 58 33 7 2 NDP
Surrey—Panorama NDP 68 27 5 0 NDP
Surrey South LIB 57 39 4 0 NDP
Surrey—Whalley NDP 66 27 8 0 NDP
Surrey—White Rock LIB 38 45 12 6 LIB
Vancouver—Fairview NDP 65 25 9 0 NDP
Vancouver—False Creek LIB 47 41 11 1 NDP
Vancouver—Fraserview NDP 57 38 6 0 NDP
Vancouver—Hastings NDP 69 18 13 0 NDP
Vancouver—Kensington NDP 66 26 7 0 NDP
Vancouver—Kingsway NDP 67 25 6 3 NDP
Vancouver—Langara LIB 45 44 11 0 LEANS NDP
Vancouver—Mount Pleasant NDP 74 13 13 0 NDP
Vancouver—Point Grey NDP 67 27 7 0 NDP
Vancouver—Quilchena LIB 35 55 11 0 LIB
Vancouver—West End NDP 68 19 11 2 NDP
Vernon—Monashee LIB 38 44 17 1 LIB
Victoria—Beacon Hill NDP 65 11 23 1 NDP
Victoria—Swan Lake NDP 63 13 24 0 NDP
West Vancouver—Capilano LIB 31 53 16 0 LIB
West Vancouver—Sea to Sky LIB 36 40 24 0 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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