2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Quebec

last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Québec vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
29.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.3%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 32.3%
Change since last election: ▼3.4%
35.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
13% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
14.4%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 14.4%
Change since last election: ▼2.3%
15.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
12.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
13.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 13.5%
Change since last election: ▼11.9%
14.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
28.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.7%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 31.7%
Change since last election: ▲12.3%
34.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 5.5%
Change since last election: ▲3.2%
6.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.9%
2.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Québec seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
22 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
33
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 33
Change since last election: ▼7
43 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
9
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 9
Change since last election: ▼3
15 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▼15
9 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
22 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
34
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 34
Change since last election: ▲24
45 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Québec riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou NDP 28 8 24 32 6 2 LEANS BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue NDP 26 6 28 33 5 3 LEANS BQ
Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIB 44 6 18 25 6 2 LIB
Alfred-Pellan LIB 41 10 13 30 5 1 LIB
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIB 40 10 14 31 6 0 LEANS LIB
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia LIB 39 5 14 37 3 2 LEANS LIB
Beauce CON 14 30 3 15 4 35 LEANS OTH
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix CON 23 31 9 31 5 1 TOSS-UP
Beauport—Limoilou CON 23 29 12 26 6 3 LEANS CON
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ 19 9 11 56 5 0 BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CON 18 48 6 21 8 0 CON
Beloeil—Chambly NDP 19 7 18 49 6 1 BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé NDP 18 9 30 43 1 0 BQ
Bourassa LIB 47 7 6 27 5 7 LIB
Brome—Missisquoi LIB 41 10 13 29 6 1 LIB
Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIB 49 11 14 21 5 0 LIB
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CON 20 41 11 23 6 0 CON
Châteauguay—Lacolle LIB 35 10 12 38 5 0 LEANS BQ
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CON 27 29 12 25 6 0 LEANS CON
Compton—Stanstead LIB 33 11 15 33 5 2 TOSS-UP
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIB 52 9 11 20 6 1 LIB
Drummond NDP 23 16 19 37 6 0 BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIB 35 5 20 34 3 2 TOSS-UP
Gatineau LIB 52 7 16 19 5 1 LIB
Hochelaga NDP 28 5 15 47 1 5 BQ
Honoré-Mercier LIB 53 10 7 23 5 1 LIB
Hull—Aylmer LIB 49 6 20 17 5 3 LIB
Joliette BQ 23 8 13 49 6 1 BQ
Jonquière NDP 20 20 17 37 4 2 BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ 23 6 14 49 5 3 BQ
La Prairie LIB 32 10 12 40 5 1 LEANS BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean LIB 34 23 6 22 4 11 LEANS LIB
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB 62 16 3 12 7 0 LIB
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LIB 41 6 17 29 8 0 LIB
Laurentides—Labelle LIB 28 8 14 45 5 0 BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP 33 3 19 39 2 5 LEANS BQ
Laval—Les Îles LIB 45 16 10 23 5 1 LIB
Lévis—Lotbinière CON 18 48 6 22 5 1 CON
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIB 31 8 13 40 7 2 LEANS BQ
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert NDP 26 7 14 40 12 1 BQ
Louis-Hébert LIB 32 25 11 25 7 0 LEANS LIB
Louis-Saint-Laurent CON 18 49 7 20 5 0 CON
Manicouagan BQ 23 8 8 58 4 0 BQ
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIB 37 10 13 35 5 0 LEANS LIB
Mégantic—L'Érable CON 24 34 11 24 6 0 LEANS CON
Mirabel BQ 25 8 14 47 6 0 BQ
Montarville LIB 28 9 13 42 6 4 BQ
Montcalm BQ 21 8 12 52 5 3 BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CON 20 23 13 38 5 2 BQ
Mount Royal LIB 50 17 8 20 5 1 LIB
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIB 56 12 11 12 7 2 LIB
Outremont LIB 31 7 26 19 13 3 LEANS LIB
Papineau LIB 47 4 14 21 7 8 LIB
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ 25 8 14 45 8 0 BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard LIB 58 19 8 10 5 0 LIB
Pontiac LIB 53 12 12 16 5 1 LIB
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CON 18 43 11 22 5 0 CON
Québec LIB 33 17 12 31 7 2 LEANS LIB
Repentigny BQ 21 8 11 49 5 7 BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska CON 21 34 10 29 5 2 LEANS CON
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques NDP 24 10 23 37 4 2 BQ
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles LIB 31 8 13 29 5 13 LEANS LIB
Rivière-du-Nord BQ 22 7 18 47 6 1 BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP 18 3 38 28 8 6 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot NDP 23 15 17 38 6 1 BQ
Saint-Jean LIB 27 6 14 35 5 14 LEANS BQ
Saint-Laurent LIB 59 18 5 11 6 0 LIB
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIB 62 10 6 16 5 1 LIB
Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIB 38 14 10 31 5 1 LEANS LIB
Salaberry—Suroît NDP 25 8 18 43 4 2 BQ
Shefford LIB 35 11 13 35 6 0 TOSS-UP
Sherbrooke NDP 26 8 24 34 5 3 LEANS BQ
Terrebonne BQ 23 9 13 49 5 1 BQ
Thérèse-De Blainville LIB 29 11 13 41 6 0 BQ
Trois-Rivières NDP 26 19 20 29 4 2 LEANS BQ
Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIB 44 12 12 26 6 0 LIB
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LIB 47 10 13 17 11 1 LIB
Vimy LIB 42 12 11 28 6 1 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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