2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Prairies
last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected prairies vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
17%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.9%
Most likely vote total: 18.9%
Change since last election: ▼15.7% 20.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
44.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 49.5%
Most likely vote total: 49.5%
Change since last election: ▲6.6% 54.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
21.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 23.9%
Most likely vote total: 23.9%
Change since last election: ▲4.7% 26.3%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
4.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.5%
Most likely vote total: 4.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.9% 5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
3%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.3%
Most likely vote total: 3.3%
Change since last election: ▲2.5% 3.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected prairies seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 4
Most likely seat total: 4
Change since last election: ▼4 10 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
12 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 20
Most likely seat total: 20
Change since last election: ▲5 27 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 4
Most likely seat total: 4
Change since last election: ▼1 11 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
Manitoba riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon—Souris | CON | 18 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 1 | CON |
| Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley | LIB | 27 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | CON |
| Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | NDP | 20 | 17 | 58 | 0 | 3 | 3 | NDP |
| Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa | CON | 11 | 54 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 13 | CON |
| Elmwood—Transcona | NDP | 17 | 37 | 40 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LEANS NDP |
| Kildonan—St. Paul | LIB | 24 | 50 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | CON |
| Portage—Lisgar | CON | 7 | 70 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 5 | CON |
| Provencher | CON | 16 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 1 | CON |
| Saint Boniface—Saint Vital | LIB | 38 | 39 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
| Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman | CON | 12 | 57 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 5 | CON |
| Winnipeg Centre | LIB | 35 | 22 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Winnipeg North | LIB | 42 | 26 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 2 | LIB |
| Winnipeg South | LIB | 40 | 45 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Winnipeg South Centre | LIB | 39 | 38 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
Saskatchewan riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battlefords—Lloydminster | CON | 6 | 58 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 13 | CON |
| Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | CON | 6 | 69 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | CON |
| Cypress Hills—Grasslands | CON | 4 | 74 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 1 | CON |
| Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | NDP | 21 | 34 | 40 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LEANS NDP |
| Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | CON | 8 | 62 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 3 | CON |
| Prince Albert | CON | 10 | 52 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 1 | CON |
| Regina—Lewvan | NDP | 18 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 4 | TOSS-UP |
| Regina—Qu'Appelle | CON | 12 | 50 | 33 | 0 | 5 | 1 | CON |
| Regina—Wascana | LIB | 43 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Saskatoon West | NDP | 13 | 38 | 41 | 0 | 3 | 4 | LEANS NDP |
| Saskatoon—Grasswood | CON | 15 | 44 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Saskatoon—University | CON | 16 | 46 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 2 | CON |
| Souris—Moose Mountain | CON | 3 | 75 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 1 | CON |
| Yorkton—Melville | CON | 8 | 64 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 1 | CON |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.