2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Prairies

last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)

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[dylan_page_title title=”Projected prairies vote totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

PARTY	VOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal	17% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 18.9% Most likely vote total: 18.9% Change since last election: ▼15.7% 20.7% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	44.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 49.5% Most likely vote total: 49.5% Change since last election: ▲6.6% 54.4% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	21.5% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 23.9% Most likely vote total: 23.9% Change since last election: ▲4.7% 26.3% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	4.1% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.5% Most likely vote total: 4.5% Change since last election: ▲1.9% 5% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	3% Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 3.3% Most likely vote total: 3.3% Change since last election: ▲2.5% 3.6% Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval

[dylan_page_title title=”Projected prairies seat totals” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

PARTY	SEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 4 Most likely seat total: 4 Change since last election: ▼4 10 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Conservative	12 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 20 Most likely seat total: 20 Change since last election: ▲5 27 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
NDP	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 4 Most likely seat total: 4 Change since last election: ▼1 11 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Green	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval
Other	0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0 Most likely seat total: 0 Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval

[dylan_page_title title=”Trend lines of all regional polls published” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

[dylan_page_title title=”Manitoba riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

Riding name:	Incumbent	Lib.	Con.	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Brandon—Souris	CON	18	63	10	8	1	CON
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley	LIB	27	40	13	5	14	CON
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	NDP	20	17	58	3	3	NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa	CON	11	54	17	6	13	CON
Elmwood—Transcona	NDP	17	37	40	4	1	LEANS NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul	LIB	24	50	18	4	4	CON
Portage—Lisgar	CON	7	70	12	6	5	CON
Provencher	CON	16	68	11	5	1	CON
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital	LIB	38	39	18	4	1	TOSS-UP
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman	CON	12	57	19	6	5	CON
Winnipeg Centre	LIB	35	22	34	6	3	LEANS LIB
Winnipeg North	LIB	42	26	24	5	2	LIB
Winnipeg South	LIB	40	45	11	3	1	LEANS CON
Winnipeg South Centre	LIB	39	38	16	6	1	TOSS-UP

[dylan_page_title title=”Saskatchewan riding-by-riding vote projection” font_weight=”font-weight-400″]

Riding name:	Incumbent	Lib.	Con.	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Battlefords—Lloydminster	CON	6	58	20	3	13	CON
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek	CON	6	69	20	4	1	CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands	CON	4	74	15	5	1	CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	NDP	21	34	40	4	1	LEANS NDP
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan	CON	8	62	24	4	3	CON
Prince Albert	CON	10	52	34	4	1	CON
Regina—Lewvan	NDP	18	37	37	3	4	TOSS-UP
Regina—Qu'Appelle	CON	12	50	33	5	1	CON
Regina—Wascana	LIB	43	36	16	4	1	LEANS LIB
Saskatoon West	NDP	13	38	41	3	4	LEANS NDP
Saskatoon—Grasswood	CON	15	44	36	3	1	LEANS CON
Saskatoon—University	CON	16	46	33	3	2	CON
Souris—Moose Mountain	CON	3	75	15	5	1	CON
Yorkton—Melville	CON	8	64	22	4	1	CON