2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Prairies

last updated: Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected prairies vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
22.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
24.8%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 24.8%
Change since last election: ▼9.7%
27.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
43.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
48.7%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 48.7%
Change since last election: ▲5.8%
53.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
14.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
15.7%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 15.7%
Change since last election: ▼3.5%
17.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.5%
Change since last election: ▲4.8%
8.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.3%
Change since last election: ▲2.6%
3.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected prairies seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
6
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 6
Change since last election: ▼2
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
13 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
21
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▲6
27 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▼4
9 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Manitoba riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Brandon—Souris Con. 24 60 4 0 12 1 CON
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley Lib. 32 39 5 0 8 15 LEANS CON
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP 29 18 45 0 5 3 NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa Con. 16 53 10 0 8 12 CON
Elmwood—Transcona NDP 18 37 36 0 7 2 TOSS-UP
Kildonan—St. Paul Lib. 30 49 10 0 6 4 CON
Portage—Lisgar Con. 11 70 5 0 9 6 CON
Provencher Con. 20 67 4 0 8 1 CON
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital Lib. 44 38 10 0 8 1 LEANS LIB
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman Con. 19 55 11 0 10 4 CON
Winnipeg Centre Lib. 42 22 22 0 10 3 LIB
Winnipeg North Lib. 50 25 15 0 8 2 LIB
Winnipeg South Lib. 46 43 4 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Winnipeg South Centre Lib. 45 37 8 0 9 1 LEANS LIB

Saskatchewan riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Battlefords—Lloydminster Con. 11 60 15 0 6 8 CON
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Con. 13 67 12 0 7 2 CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands Con. 10 72 7 0 10 1 CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River NDP 29 33 29 0 7 2 LEANS CON
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Con. 11 65 15 0 6 3 CON
Prince Albert Con. 15 51 27 0 6 2 CON
Regina—Lewvan NDP 27 36 28 0 6 4 LEANS CON
Regina—Qu'Appelle Con. 17 49 24 0 9 1 CON
Regina—Wascana Lib. 52 33 7 0 7 2 LIB
Saskatoon West NDP 18 42 30 0 6 4 CON
Saskatoon—Grasswood Con. 20 43 29 0 6 2 CON
Saskatoon—University Con. 25 43 24 0 5 3 CON
Souris—Moose Mountain Con. 8 73 8 0 10 1 CON
Yorkton—Melville Con. 13 64 14 0 7 2 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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