2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Prairies

last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected prairies vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
17% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 18.9%
Change since last election: ▼15.7%
20.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
44.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
49.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 49.5%
Change since last election: ▲6.6%
54.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
21.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
23.9%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 23.9%
Change since last election: ▲4.7%
26.3% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
4.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.5%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 4.5%
Change since last election: ▲1.9%
5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.3%
Change since last election: ▲2.5%
3.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected prairies seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
4
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 4
Change since last election: ▼4
10 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
12 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
20
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 20
Change since last election: ▲5
27 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
4
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 4
Change since last election: ▼1
11 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Manitoba riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Brandon—Souris CON 18 63 10 0 8 1 CON
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley LIB 27 40 13 0 5 14 CON
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP 20 17 58 0 3 3 NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CON 11 54 17 0 6 13 CON
Elmwood—Transcona NDP 17 37 40 0 4 1 LEANS NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul LIB 24 50 18 0 4 4 CON
Portage—Lisgar CON 7 70 12 0 6 5 CON
Provencher CON 16 68 11 0 5 1 CON
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital LIB 38 39 18 0 4 1 TOSS-UP
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CON 12 57 19 0 6 5 CON
Winnipeg Centre LIB 35 22 34 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Winnipeg North LIB 42 26 24 0 5 2 LIB
Winnipeg South LIB 40 45 11 0 3 1 LEANS CON
Winnipeg South Centre LIB 39 38 16 0 6 1 TOSS-UP

Saskatchewan riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Battlefords—Lloydminster CON 6 58 20 0 3 13 CON
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CON 6 69 20 0 4 1 CON
Cypress Hills—Grasslands CON 4 74 15 0 5 1 CON
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River NDP 21 34 40 0 4 1 LEANS NDP
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CON 8 62 24 0 4 3 CON
Prince Albert CON 10 52 34 0 4 1 CON
Regina—Lewvan NDP 18 37 37 0 3 4 TOSS-UP
Regina—Qu'Appelle CON 12 50 33 0 5 1 CON
Regina—Wascana LIB 43 36 16 0 4 1 LEANS LIB
Saskatoon West NDP 13 38 41 0 3 4 LEANS NDP
Saskatoon—Grasswood CON 15 44 36 0 3 1 LEANS CON
Saskatoon—University CON 16 46 33 0 3 2 CON
Souris—Moose Mountain CON 3 75 15 0 5 1 CON
Yorkton—Melville CON 8 64 22 0 4 1 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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