2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
34.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
38.6%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 38.6%
Change since last election: ▼6.2%
42.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.3%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 32.3%
Change since last election: ▼2.8%
35.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.4%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.4%
Change since last election: ▲1.8%
20.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.3%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.3%
Change since last election: ▲4.5%
8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.5%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.5%
Change since last election: ▲2.8%
3.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
51 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
71
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 71
Change since last election: ▼9
80 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▲4
56 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
13
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 13
Change since last election: ▲5
23 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax LIB 51 27 11 0 5 6 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 27 23 43 0 6 1 NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill LIB 37 40 15 0 5 3 LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil CON 30 44 13 0 10 3 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CON 36 37 13 0 10 4 TOSS-UP
Bay of Quinte LIB 44 32 16 0 6 3 LIB
Beaches—East York LIB 42 16 33 0 6 3 LIB
Brampton Centre LIB 40 32 19 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Brampton East LIB 47 22 25 0 4 2 LIB
Brampton North LIB 45 28 20 0 6 2 LIB
Brampton South LIB 45 33 14 0 6 1 LIB
Brampton West LIB 49 30 15 0 5 1 LIB
Brantford—Brant CON 30 38 13 0 6 13 LEANS CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CON 32 45 13 0 9 2 CON
Burlington LIB 44 37 12 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Cambridge LIB 36 35 18 0 8 4 TOSS-UP
Carleton CON 28 56 8 0 7 1 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington CON 31 51 17 0 0 1 CON
Davenport LIB 41 10 38 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Don Valley East LIB 54 25 13 0 7 1 LIB
Don Valley North LIB 45 36 12 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Don Valley West LIB 52 31 9 0 5 4 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon CON 30 39 15 0 14 1 LEANS CON
Durham CON 29 43 18 0 7 3 CON
Eglinton—Lawrence LIB 46 37 9 0 5 3 LEANS LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London CON 23 46 19 0 8 4 CON
Essex NDP 15 34 44 0 5 2 LEANS NDP
Etobicoke Centre LIB 45 35 11 0 5 3 LIB
Etobicoke North LIB 57 21 14 0 4 4 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIB 50 27 13 0 6 3 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook CON 31 42 18 0 8 1 CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIB 46 36 10 0 5 3 LIB
Guelph LIB 38 22 14 0 22 5 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk CON 29 45 12 0 9 5 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CON 28 40 23 0 9 1 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 23 11 51 0 9 6 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIB 32 24 35 0 6 3 LEANS NDP
Hamilton Mountain NDP 24 22 39 0 6 9 NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIB 41 29 18 0 11 2 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington LIB 40 36 16 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Humber River—Black Creek LIB 59 18 15 0 5 3 LIB
Huron—Bruce CON 32 45 15 0 6 1 CON
Kanata—Carleton LIB 44 38 10 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Kenora LIB 32 27 33 0 5 3 TOSS-UP
Kingston and the Islands LIB 51 18 19 0 9 2 LIB
King—Vaughan LIB 41 42 10 0 6 1 TOSS-UP
Kitchener Centre LIB 39 24 12 0 21 4 LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler LIB 33 33 18 0 8 7 TOSS-UP
Kitchener—Conestoga CON 35 46 6 0 8 4 CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CON 26 45 20 0 8 1 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CON 26 45 18 0 8 3 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON 33 47 11 0 8 1 CON
London North Centre LIB 43 29 18 0 9 2 LIB
London West LIB 40 32 16 0 8 4 LEANS LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 26 22 42 0 7 3 NDP
Markham—Stouffville LIB 36 27 3 0 5 29 LEANS LIB
Markham—Thornhill LIB 49 32 14 0 4 1 LIB
Markham—Unionville CON 35 49 8 0 7 1 CON
Milton CON 38 41 9 0 7 5 LEANS CON
Mississauga Centre LIB 52 29 12 0 6 1 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville LIB 48 33 12 0 5 2 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills LIB 43 39 12 0 5 1 LEANS LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore LIB 40 39 11 0 7 4 TOSS-UP
Mississauga—Malton LIB 53 24 14 0 5 3 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville LIB 45 35 12 0 6 3 LIB
Nepean LIB 46 33 11 0 6 4 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora LIB 38 41 11 0 6 4 LEANS CON
Niagara Centre LIB 39 30 21 0 7 3 LEANS LIB
Niagara Falls CON 30 40 18 0 7 4 CON
Niagara West CON 27 41 14 0 7 12 CON
Nickel Belt LIB 34 14 44 0 6 2 NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming LIB 45 29 19 0 6 1 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South LIB 35 37 18 0 8 1 LEANS CON
Oakville LIB 44 40 8 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Oakville North—Burlington LIB 44 37 10 0 6 4 LEANS LIB
Orléans LIB 54 29 11 0 6 1 LIB
Oshawa CON 31 44 17 0 6 2 CON
Ottawa Centre LIB 39 17 31 0 7 6 LEANS LIB
Ottawa South LIB 54 22 13 0 8 4 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean LIB 52 25 12 0 7 5 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier LIB 49 16 23 0 7 4 LIB
Oxford CON 25 44 18 0 7 6 CON
Parkdale—High Park LIB 32 10 44 0 7 7 NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka CON 30 39 11 0 16 3 LEANS CON
Perth—Wellington CON 32 37 18 0 7 6 LEANS CON
Peterborough—Kawartha LIB 37 32 23 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge LIB 44 38 12 0 6 1 LEANS LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CON 23 47 10 0 6 14 CON
Richmond Hill LIB 42 41 10 0 6 2 TOSS-UP
Sarnia—Lambton CON 23 34 35 0 7 1 TOSS-UP
Sault Ste. Marie LIB 37 28 27 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre LIB 44 28 14 0 7 8 LIB
Scarborough North LIB 39 25 26 0 5 4 LIB
Scarborough Southwest LIB 47 19 25 0 7 2 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt LIB 48 32 11 0 5 3 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood LIB 53 24 15 0 5 3 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park LIB 53 27 13 0 5 1 LIB
Simcoe North CON 31 37 12 0 14 6 LEANS CON
Simcoe—Grey CON 31 44 11 0 11 3 CON
Spadina—Fort York LIB 50 12 30 0 6 2 LIB
St. Catharines LIB 36 35 21 0 7 2 TOSS-UP
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CON 31 51 11 0 6 1 CON
Sudbury LIB 39 18 32 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Thornhill CON 27 57 7 0 4 4 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIB 40 17 33 0 10 1 LEANS LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North LIB 34 14 26 0 24 2 LEANS LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 27 20 46 0 5 1 NDP
Toronto Centre LIB 48 10 31 0 7 4 LIB
Toronto—Danforth LIB 35 8 40 0 11 6 LEANS NDP
Toronto—St. Paul's LIB 52 23 17 0 7 1 LIB
University—Rosedale LIB 41 15 33 0 7 4 LEANS LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge LIB 41 43 7 0 4 5 LEANS CON
Waterloo LIB 45 23 18 0 12 2 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills CON 29 48 10 0 10 2 CON
Whitby LIB 42 36 13 0 6 2 LEANS LIB
Willowdale LIB 47 35 10 0 6 2 LIB
Windsor West NDP 35 20 42 0 0 2 LEANS NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh NDP 31 23 28 0 6 12 LEANS LIB
York Centre LIB 47 40 10 0 2 2 LEANS LIB
York South—Weston LIB 40 15 32 0 6 7 LEANS LIB
York—Simcoe CON 30 49 12 0 8 1 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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