2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Ontario

last updated: Friday, September 20, 2019 at 07:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Ontario vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
35.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
39.8%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 39.8%
Change since last election: ▼5%
43.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
30.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
34.2%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 34.2%
Change since last election: ▼0.9%
37.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
11.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.8%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 12.8%
Change since last election: ▼3.8%
14% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
8.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
9.1%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 9.1%
Change since last election: ▲6.3%
10% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.2%
Change since last election: ▲3.5%
4.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Ontario seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
50 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
75
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 75
Change since last election: ▼5
84 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
30 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
39
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 39
Change since last election: ▲6
62 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
7
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 7
Change since last election: ▼1
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

Ontario riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Ajax Lib. 52 34 6 0 7 2 LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP 30 24 36 0 8 3 LEANS NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Lib. 38 41 9 0 8 4 LEANS CON
Barrie—Innisfil Con. 30 46 8 0 11 4 CON
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Con. 37 39 7 0 11 6 LEANS CON
Bay of Quinte Lib. 45 33 10 0 8 4 LIB
Beaches—East York Lib. 45 16 26 0 8 4 LIB
Brampton Centre Lib. 43 33 13 0 9 3 LIB
Brampton East Lib. 49 24 18 0 7 3 LIB
Brampton North Lib. 46 31 13 0 8 3 LIB
Brampton South Lib. 48 35 8 0 8 1 LIB
Brampton West Lib. 52 30 9 0 6 3 LIB
Brantford—Brant Con. 34 43 9 0 9 5 LEANS CON
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Con. 32 47 8 0 10 2 CON
Burlington Lib. 44 40 6 0 9 1 LEANS LIB
Cambridge Lib. 37 37 11 0 10 5 TOSS-UP
Carleton Con. 29 56 3 0 9 2 CON
Chatham-Kent—Leamington Con. 31 42 16 0 9 2 CON
Davenport Lib. 40 10 35 0 10 4 LEANS LIB
Don Valley East Lib. 56 27 7 0 9 1 LIB
Don Valley North Lib. 47 37 6 0 8 1 LEANS LIB
Don Valley West Lib. 49 37 3 0 6 4 LIB
Dufferin—Caledon Con. 33 46 5 0 14 2 CON
Durham Con. 30 46 12 0 9 4 CON
Eglinton—Lawrence Lib. 46 39 3 0 8 4 LEANS LIB
Elgin—Middlesex—London Con. 24 48 12 0 10 5 CON
Essex NDP 17 35 38 0 7 3 LEANS NDP
Etobicoke Centre Lib. 46 36 6 0 8 4 LIB
Etobicoke North Lib. 58 23 9 0 7 4 LIB
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lib. 51 30 8 0 8 4 LIB
Flamborough—Glanbrook Con. 33 44 11 0 11 1 CON
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Lib. 49 36 5 0 7 4 LIB
Guelph Lib. 42 25 9 0 18 6 LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk Con. 30 44 10 0 10 6 CON
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Con. 28 44 16 0 11 1 CON
Hamilton Centre NDP 26 13 41 0 12 8 NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Lib. 35 25 28 0 8 4 LEANS LIB
Hamilton Mountain NDP 27 24 32 0 9 8 LEANS NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Lib. 42 31 12 0 12 2 LIB
Hastings—Lennox and Addington Lib. 40 40 10 0 9 1 TOSS-UP
Humber River—Black Creek Lib. 62 19 8 0 7 3 LIB
Huron—Bruce Con. 34 46 9 0 8 3 CON
Kanata—Carleton Lib. 46 38 5 0 9 2 LEANS LIB
Kenora Lib. 31 29 28 0 8 4 LEANS LIB
Kingston and the Islands Lib. 52 21 13 0 11 3 LIB
King—Vaughan Lib. 43 44 4 0 8 1 TOSS-UP
Kitchener Centre Lib. 44 30 13 0 9 4 LIB
Kitchener South—Hespeler Lib. 36 35 13 0 10 7 TOSS-UP
Kitchener—Conestoga Con. 36 43 7 0 9 5 LEANS CON
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Con. 26 49 14 0 10 1 CON
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Con. 27 47 11 0 11 4 CON
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Con. 35 48 5 0 10 2 CON
London North Centre Lib. 45 30 12 0 10 3 LIB
London West Lib. 40 35 11 0 9 4 LEANS LIB
London—Fanshawe NDP 27 25 35 0 9 4 LEANS NDP
Markham—Stouffville Lib. 34 26 0 0 6 33 TOSS-UP
Markham—Thornhill Lib. 52 33 7 0 6 3 LIB
Markham—Unionville Con. 37 50 3 0 9 2 CON
Milton Con. 34 46 8 0 8 4 CON
Mississauga Centre Lib. 53 31 6 0 8 1 LIB
Mississauga East—Cooksville Lib. 50 35 6 0 7 3 LIB
Mississauga—Erin Mills Lib. 46 39 6 0 6 3 LEANS LIB
Mississauga—Lakeshore Lib. 41 40 6 0 9 4 LEANS LIB
Mississauga—Malton Lib. 54 26 9 0 7 4 LIB
Mississauga—Streetsville Lib. 45 37 6 0 9 3 LEANS LIB
Nepean Lib. 47 35 6 0 8 4 LIB
Newmarket—Aurora Lib. 41 42 5 0 8 5 LEANS CON
Niagara Centre Lib. 41 32 14 0 9 4 LEANS LIB
Niagara Falls Con. 29 43 16 0 9 2 CON
Niagara West Con. 27 43 8 0 9 14 CON
Nickel Belt Lib. 38 16 35 0 9 2 LEANS LIB
Nipissing—Timiskaming Lib. 48 29 12 0 8 3 LIB
Northumberland—Peterborough South Lib. 37 39 12 0 10 2 LEANS CON
Oakville Lib. 44 42 3 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
Oakville North—Burlington Lib. 43 40 4 0 8 5 LEANS LIB
Orléans Lib. 56 30 6 0 7 1 LIB
Oshawa Con. 33 45 11 0 8 3 CON
Ottawa Centre Lib. 37 13 34 0 9 6 LEANS LIB
Ottawa South Lib. 54 24 8 0 10 4 LIB
Ottawa West—Nepean Lib. 52 27 6 0 9 6 LIB
Ottawa—Vanier Lib. 51 18 16 0 10 5 LIB
Oxford Con. 27 46 12 0 10 5 CON
Parkdale—High Park Lib. 36 12 36 0 9 7 TOSS-UP
Parry Sound—Muskoka Con. 31 42 7 0 17 3 CON
Perth—Wellington Con. 32 40 11 0 9 8 LEANS CON
Peterborough—Kawartha Lib. 39 34 16 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
Pickering—Uxbridge Lib. 46 38 6 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Con. 22 38 5 0 7 27 CON
Richmond Hill Lib. 42 43 5 0 8 2 TOSS-UP
Sarnia—Lambton Con. 24 38 28 0 9 1 LEANS CON
Sault Ste. Marie Lib. 40 30 19 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
Scarborough Centre Lib. 46 32 8 0 7 6 LIB
Scarborough North Lib. 42 26 19 0 8 5 LIB
Scarborough Southwest Lib. 48 21 19 0 9 2 LIB
Scarborough—Agincourt Lib. 49 35 5 0 7 4 LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib. 55 26 9 0 7 4 LIB
Scarborough—Rouge Park Lib. 56 27 7 0 7 3 LIB
Simcoe North Con. 32 42 8 0 11 7 CON
Simcoe—Grey Con. 31 46 6 0 12 4 CON
Spadina—Fort York Lib. 51 14 24 0 8 3 LIB
St. Catharines Lib. 38 37 14 0 9 2 TOSS-UP
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Con. 33 52 5 0 7 3 CON
Sudbury Lib. 42 20 24 0 10 4 LIB
Thornhill Con. 27 59 3 0 6 5 CON
Thunder Bay—Rainy River Lib. 41 19 26 0 12 1 LIB
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib. 35 15 18 0 30 3 LEANS LIB
Timmins—James Bay NDP 30 20 40 0 7 3 LEANS NDP
Toronto Centre Lib. 52 11 23 0 9 4 LIB
Toronto—Danforth Lib. 38 10 33 0 13 7 LEANS LIB
Toronto—St. Paul's Lib. 53 25 11 0 9 1 LIB
University—Rosedale Lib. 44 16 25 0 10 5 LIB
Vaughan—Woodbridge Lib. 44 44 1 0 6 5 TOSS-UP
Waterloo Lib. 44 31 12 0 9 3 LIB
Wellington—Halton Hills Con. 30 50 5 0 11 3 CON
Whitby Lib. 42 39 7 0 8 3 LEANS LIB
Willowdale Lib. 48 36 5 0 8 3 LIB
Windsor West NDP 38 21 36 0 1 4 LEANS LIB
Windsor—Tecumseh NDP 21 26 40 0 8 4 NDP
York Centre Lib. 42 43 5 0 8 2 LEANS CON
York South—Weston Lib. 41 17 25 0 8 9 LIB
York—Simcoe Con. 32 51 6 0 10 1 CON

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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