2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
23.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
26.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 26.4%
Change since last election: ▼8.7%
29% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
27.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
30.1%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 30.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
33.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
23.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
26.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 26.2%
Change since last election: ▲0.2%
28.8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
11% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.2%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 12.2%
Change since last election: ▲4%
13.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
4.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.1%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 5.1%
Change since last election: ▲4.4%
5.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼7
19 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
8 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
15
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 15
Change since last election: ▲5
23 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
6 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
15
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 15
Change since last election: ▲1
20 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford CON 19 54 15 0 9 3 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour LIB 32 19 36 0 9 4 LEANS NDP
Burnaby South NDP 22 24 42 0 7 6 NDP
Cariboo—Prince George CON 21 39 26 0 5 10 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CON 32 36 22 0 8 2 LEANS CON
Chilliwack—Hope CON 20 47 19 0 9 5 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City LIB 38 36 17 0 8 1 TOSS-UP
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIB 29 33 23 0 7 8 LEANS CON
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 14 30 40 0 13 2 LEANS NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 17 18 38 0 23 4 NDP
Delta LIB 35 39 17 0 7 2 LEANS CON
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 19 18 37 0 25 2 NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells LIB 37 33 16 0 6 8 LEANS LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CON 20 33 22 0 9 16 CON
Kelowna—Lake Country LIB 44 35 17 0 2 2 LEANS LIB
Kootenay—Columbia NDP 10 39 39 0 11 1 TOSS-UP
Langley—Aldergrove CON 27 48 14 0 8 4 CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon LIB 29 36 17 0 9 8 LEANS CON
Nanaimo—Ladysmith GRN 11 25 31 0 27 7 LEANS NDP
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 21 16 45 0 8 9 NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 14 28 43 0 13 1 NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap CON 22 41 27 0 9 1 CON
North Vancouver LIB 49 28 7 0 14 3 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge LIB 25 34 31 0 6 5 LEANS CON
Port Moody—Coquitlam NDP 25 25 40 0 7 3 NDP
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CON 13 55 16 0 9 8 CON
Richmond Centre CON 32 47 13 0 6 1 CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands GRN 9 17 7 0 65 3 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 10 26 52 0 5 7 NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 22 25 41 0 8 4 NDP
South Surrey—White Rock LIB 29 49 10 0 8 5 CON
Steveston—Richmond East LIB 36 40 14 0 7 3 LEANS CON
Surrey Centre LIB 40 22 27 0 8 3 LIB
Surrey—Newton LIB 48 18 29 0 4 1 LIB
Vancouver Centre LIB 49 14 21 0 10 5 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 19 12 52 0 15 3 NDP
Vancouver Granville LIB 25 23 20 0 6 26 TOSS-UP
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 21 23 40 0 7 9 NDP
Vancouver Quadra LIB 50 29 12 0 6 3 LIB
Vancouver South LIB 44 29 16 0 6 4 LIB
Victoria NDP 19 17 37 0 21 6 NDP
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIB 46 27 11 0 13 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!