2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia
last updated: Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected BC vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
25.3%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 28.2%
Most likely vote total: 28.2%
Change since last election: ▼6.9% 31%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
30.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 33.5%
Most likely vote total: 33.5%
Change since last election: ▲3.6% 36.9%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
15.5%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 17.2%
Most likely vote total: 17.2%
Change since last election: ▼8.8% 19%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
15.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 16.8%
Most likely vote total: 16.8%
Change since last election: ▲8.6% 18.5%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
3.8%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.3%
Most likely vote total: 4.3%
Change since last election: ▲3.6% 4.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected BC seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
6 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 10
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼7 21 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
11 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 20
Most likely seat total: 20
Change since last election: ▲10 28 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
1 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 8
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▼6 13 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
1 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2 8 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 1
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
BC riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford | Con. | 22 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 2 | CON |
| Burnaby North—Seymour | Lib. | 30 | 31 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Burnaby South | NDP | 29 | 33 | 23 | 0 | 10 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Cariboo—Prince George | Con. | 23 | 43 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 8 | CON |
| Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola | Con. | 32 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Chilliwack—Hope | Con. | 23 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 5 | CON |
| Cloverdale—Langley City | Lib. | 39 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
| Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | Lib. | 30 | 37 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 5 | LEANS CON |
| Courtenay—Alberni | NDP | 14 | 33 | 30 | 0 | 19 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | NDP | 19 | 23 | 28 | 0 | 27 | 4 | TOSS-UP |
| Delta | Lib. | 39 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | NDP | 20 | 21 | 27 | 0 | 30 | 2 | LEANS GRN |
| Fleetwood—Port Kells | Lib. | 42 | 34 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
| Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo | Con. | 23 | 43 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 2 | CON |
| Kelowna—Lake Country | Lib. | 43 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| Kootenay—Columbia | NDP | 12 | 42 | 29 | 0 | 16 | 1 | CON |
| Langley—Aldergrove | Con. | 28 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 4 | CON |
| Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon | Lib. | 31 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 5 | LEANS CON |
| Nanaimo—Ladysmith | NDP | 16 | 27 | 25 | 0 | 29 | 3 | LEANS GRN |
| New Westminster—Burnaby | NDP | 24 | 20 | 35 | 0 | 14 | 7 | NDP |
| North Island—Powell River | NDP | 17 | 31 | 32 | 0 | 18 | 1 | TOSS-UP |
| North Okanagan—Shuswap | Con. | 23 | 45 | 18 | 0 | 14 | 1 | CON |
| North Vancouver | Lib. | 48 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 3 | LIB |
| Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | Lib. | 27 | 37 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 4 | LEANS CON |
| Port Moody—Coquitlam | NDP | 26 | 29 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 3 | TOSS-UP |
| Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies | Con. | 15 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 8 | CON |
| Richmond Centre | Con. | 34 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 1 | CON |
| Saanich—Gulf Islands | Green | 8 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 71 | 3 | GRN |
| Skeena—Bulkley Valley | NDP | 12 | 30 | 44 | 0 | 9 | 6 | NDP |
| South Okanagan—West Kootenay | NDP | 23 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 14 | 4 | TOSS-UP |
| South Surrey—White Rock | Con. | 30 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | CON |
| Steveston—Richmond East | Lib. | 38 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 3 | LEANS CON |
| Surrey Centre | Lib. | 42 | 25 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 4 | LIB |
| Surrey—Newton | Lib. | 52 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LIB |
| Vancouver Centre | Lib. | 51 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 4 | LIB |
| Vancouver East | NDP | 18 | 15 | 41 | 0 | 19 | 8 | NDP |
| Vancouver Granville | Lib. | 28 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 31 | LEANS OTH |
| Vancouver Kingsway | NDP | 23 | 27 | 32 | 0 | 11 | 6 | LEANS NDP |
| Vancouver Quadra | Lib. | 53 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | LIB |
| Vancouver South | Lib. | 44 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 4 | LIB |
| Victoria | NDP | 22 | 20 | 27 | 0 | 26 | 6 | TOSS-UP |
| West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | Lib. | 47 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 2 | LIB |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.