2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: British Columbia

last updated: Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected BC vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
25.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
28.2%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 28.2%
Change since last election: ▼6.9%
31% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
30.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
33.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 33.5%
Change since last election: ▲3.6%
36.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
15.5% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
17.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 17.2%
Change since last election: ▼8.8%
19% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
15.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
16.8%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 16.8%
Change since last election: ▲8.6%
18.5% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.3%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.3%
Change since last election: ▲3.6%
4.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected BC seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
6 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
10
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 10
Change since last election: ▼7
21 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
11 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
20
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 20
Change since last election: ▲10
28 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
8
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 8
Change since last election: ▼6
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
8 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲1
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

BC riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Abbotsford Con. 22 56 5 0 14 2 CON
Burnaby North—Seymour Lib. 30 31 21 0 14 4 LEANS CON
Burnaby South NDP 29 33 23 0 10 4 LEANS CON
Cariboo—Prince George Con. 23 43 17 0 8 8 CON
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola Con. 32 40 12 0 14 2 LEANS CON
Chilliwack—Hope Con. 23 49 10 0 13 5 CON
Cloverdale—Langley City Lib. 39 39 9 0 12 1 TOSS-UP
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Lib. 30 37 16 0 11 5 LEANS CON
Courtenay—Alberni NDP 14 33 30 0 19 3 LEANS CON
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP 19 23 28 0 27 4 TOSS-UP
Delta Lib. 39 41 7 0 12 1 LEANS CON
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP 20 21 27 0 30 2 LEANS GRN
Fleetwood—Port Kells Lib. 42 34 12 0 9 3 LEANS LIB
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo Con. 23 43 23 0 9 2 CON
Kelowna—Lake Country Lib. 43 40 7 0 8 2 LEANS LIB
Kootenay—Columbia NDP 12 42 29 0 16 1 CON
Langley—Aldergrove Con. 28 50 6 0 12 4 CON
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon Lib. 31 39 11 0 13 5 LEANS CON
Nanaimo—Ladysmith NDP 16 27 25 0 29 3 LEANS GRN
New Westminster—Burnaby NDP 24 20 35 0 14 7 NDP
North Island—Powell River NDP 17 31 32 0 18 1 TOSS-UP
North Okanagan—Shuswap Con. 23 45 18 0 14 1 CON
North Vancouver Lib. 48 29 2 0 18 3 LIB
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Lib. 27 37 21 0 10 4 LEANS CON
Port Moody—Coquitlam NDP 26 29 28 0 13 3 TOSS-UP
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Con. 15 57 7 0 13 8 CON
Richmond Centre Con. 34 49 5 0 11 1 CON
Saanich—Gulf Islands Green 8 17 2 0 71 3 GRN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP 12 30 44 0 9 6 NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP 23 30 30 0 14 4 TOSS-UP
South Surrey—White Rock Con. 30 53 2 0 12 3 CON
Steveston—Richmond East Lib. 38 42 6 0 12 3 LEANS CON
Surrey Centre Lib. 42 25 19 0 11 4 LIB
Surrey—Newton Lib. 52 21 19 0 7 2 LIB
Vancouver Centre Lib. 51 17 12 0 15 4 LIB
Vancouver East NDP 18 15 41 0 19 8 NDP
Vancouver Granville Lib. 28 20 11 0 9 31 LEANS OTH
Vancouver Kingsway NDP 23 27 32 0 11 6 LEANS NDP
Vancouver Quadra Lib. 53 32 2 0 10 3 LIB
Vancouver South Lib. 44 33 7 0 12 4 LIB
Victoria NDP 22 20 27 0 26 6 TOSS-UP
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Lib. 47 29 4 0 17 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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