2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Atlantic Canada

last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Atlantic Canada vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
36.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
40.4%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 40.4%
Change since last election: ▼18.4%
44.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
24.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
27.2%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 27.2%
Change since last election: ▲8.2%
29.9% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
17.3% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
19.2%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 19.2%
Change since last election: ▲1.3%
21.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
10.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
11.2%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 11.2%
Change since last election: ▲7.7%
12.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
1.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2%
Change since last election: ▲1.2%
2.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Atlantic Canada seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
13 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
22
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 22
Change since last election: ▼10
28 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
2 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
7
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 7
Change since last election: ▲7
15 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲3
9 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
4 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
1 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

New Brunswick riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Acadie—Bathurst LIB 46 11 35 0 7 1 LIB
Beauséjour LIB 50 19 18 0 12 2 LIB
Fredericton LIB 32 32 10 0 26 1 TOSS-UP
Fundy Royal LIB 18 44 18 0 17 3 CON
Madawaska—Restigouche LIB 34 31 27 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
Miramichi—Grand Lake LIB 36 41 14 0 8 1 LEANS CON
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe LIB 39 30 18 0 12 2 LEANS LIB
New Brunswick Southwest LIB 25 41 21 0 12 1 CON
Saint John—Rothesay LIB 26 38 19 0 16 1 CON
Tobique—Mactaquac LIB 20 58 10 0 11 1 CON

Newfoundland and Labrador riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Avalon LIB 62 14 13 0 3 8 LIB
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity LIB 62 18 10 0 8 2 LIB
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame LIB 54 27 13 0 5 1 LIB
Labrador LIB 51 23 21 0 5 1 LIB
Long Range Mountains LIB 48 29 13 0 9 2 LIB
St. John's East LIB 34 18 41 0 5 2 LEANS NDP
St. John's South—Mount Pearl LIB 40 10 40 0 8 2 TOSS-UP

Nova Scotia riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Cape Breton—Canso LIB 52 22 16 0 10 1 LIB
Central Nova LIB 32 30 16 0 18 4 TOSS-UP
Cumberland—Colchester LIB 36 41 11 0 9 2 LEANS CON
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LIB 52 17 21 0 9 1 LIB
Halifax LIB 34 14 38 0 10 3 LEANS NDP
Halifax West LIB 46 22 21 0 11 1 LIB
Kings—Hants LIB 48 25 6 0 17 4 LIB
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook LIB 32 24 26 0 17 2 LEANS LIB
South Shore—St. Margarets LIB 49 26 15 0 8 3 LIB
Sydney—Victoria LIB 47 23 15 0 10 5 LIB
West Nova LIB 42 32 13 0 12 1 LEANS LIB

Prince Edward Island (PEI) riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Cardigan LIB 38 21 13 0 24 4 LIB
Charlottetown LIB 34 31 19 0 14 2 LEANS LIB
Egmont LIB 41 33 18 0 7 1 LEANS LIB
Malpeque LIB 41 26 14 0 16 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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