2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Atlantic Canada
last updated: Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected Atlantic Canada vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
37.4%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 41.5%
Most likely vote total: 41.5%
Change since last election: ▼17.3% 45.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
29.2%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 32.5%
Most likely vote total: 32.5%
Change since last election: ▲13.5% 35.7%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
9.9%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 11%
Most likely vote total: 11%
Change since last election: ▼6.9% 12.1%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
11%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 12.2%
Most likely vote total: 12.2%
Change since last election: ▲8.7% 13.4%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
2.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 2.9%
Most likely vote total: 2.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.1% 3.1%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected Atlantic Canada seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
13 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 21
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▼11 27 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
4 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 11
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▲11 17 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 5 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 3 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 0
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0 1 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all regional polls published
New Brunswick riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acadie—Bathurst | Lib. | 44 | 19 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 1 | LIB |
| Beauséjour | Lib. | 52 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 2 | LIB |
| Fredericton | Lib. | 28 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 28 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Fundy Royal | Lib. | 20 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 17 | 3 | CON |
| Madawaska—Restigouche | Lib. | 34 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| Miramichi—Grand Lake | Lib. | 39 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 1 | LEANS CON |
| Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe | Lib. | 39 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| New Brunswick Southwest | Lib. | 25 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 3 | CON |
| Saint John—Rothesay | Lib. | 28 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 2 | CON |
| Tobique—Mactaquac | Lib. | 22 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 1 | CON |
Newfoundland and Labrador riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalon | Lib. | 58 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 11 | LIB |
| Bonavista—Burin—Trinity | Lib. | 66 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
| Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame | Lib. | 57 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | LIB |
| Labrador | Lib. | 56 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 2 | LIB |
| Long Range Mountains | Lib. | 50 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 2 | LIB |
| St. John's East | Lib. | 40 | 18 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 2 | LEANS LIB |
| St. John's South—Mount Pearl | Lib. | 44 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 2 | LIB |
Nova Scotia riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Breton—Canso | Lib. | 55 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 3 | LIB |
| Central Nova | Lib. | 36 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 5 | LEANS CON |
| Cumberland—Colchester | Lib. | 36 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | CON |
| Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | Lib. | 50 | 24 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 1 | LIB |
| Halifax | Lib. | 35 | 21 | 28 | 0 | 12 | 4 | LEANS LIB |
| Halifax West | Lib. | 49 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 3 | LIB |
| Kings—Hants | Lib. | 49 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | LIB |
| Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook | Lib. | 28 | 36 | 24 | 0 | 10 | 2 | LEANS CON |
| South Shore—St. Margarets | Lib. | 48 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 3 | LIB |
| Sydney—Victoria | Lib. | 55 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 5 | LIB |
| West Nova | Lib. | 43 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 3 | LEANS LIB |
Prince Edward Island (PEI) riding-by-riding vote projection
| Riding name: | Incumbent | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Projected winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardigan | Lib. | 41 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 5 | LIB |
| Charlottetown | Lib. | 35 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 2 | TOSS-UP |
| Egmont | Lib. | 42 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 1 | LEANS LIB |
| Malpeque | Lib. | 43 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 2 | LIB |
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.