2019 Canadian Federal Election Region: Atlantic Canada

last updated: Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected Atlantic Canada vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
37.4% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
41.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 41.5%
Change since last election: ▼17.3%
45.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
29.2% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
32.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 32.5%
Change since last election: ▲13.5%
35.7% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
9.9% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
11%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 11%
Change since last election: ▼6.9%
12.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
11% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12.2%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 12.2%
Change since last election: ▲8.7%
13.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
2.9%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 2.9%
Change since last election: ▲2.1%
3.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected Atlantic Canada seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
13 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
21
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 21
Change since last election: ▼11
27 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
4 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
11
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 11
Change since last election: ▲11
17 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
5 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
3 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
0
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 0
Change since last election: ▲0
1 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all regional polls published

New Brunswick riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Acadie—Bathurst Lib. 44 19 27 0 9 1 LIB
Beauséjour Lib. 52 23 9 0 13 2 LIB
Fredericton Lib. 28 36 6 0 28 2 LEANS CON
Fundy Royal Lib. 20 50 10 0 17 3 CON
Madawaska—Restigouche Lib. 34 38 17 0 9 2 LEANS CON
Miramichi—Grand Lake Lib. 39 42 8 0 10 1 LEANS CON
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe Lib. 39 35 10 0 13 2 LEANS LIB
New Brunswick Southwest Lib. 25 49 10 0 14 3 CON
Saint John—Rothesay Lib. 28 44 10 0 15 2 CON
Tobique—Mactaquac Lib. 22 62 4 0 10 1 CON

Newfoundland and Labrador riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Avalon Lib. 58 19 6 0 5 11 LIB
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity Lib. 66 22 3 0 8 2 LIB
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame Lib. 57 31 3 0 6 3 LIB
Labrador Lib. 56 28 9 0 6 2 LIB
Long Range Mountains Lib. 50 32 6 0 11 2 LIB
St. John's East Lib. 40 18 32 0 7 2 LEANS LIB
St. John's South—Mount Pearl Lib. 44 16 30 0 8 2 LIB

Nova Scotia riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Cape Breton—Canso Lib. 55 26 5 0 11 3 LIB
Central Nova Lib. 36 38 4 0 18 5 LEANS CON
Cumberland—Colchester Lib. 36 50 1 0 10 3 CON
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Lib. 50 24 15 0 10 1 LIB
Halifax Lib. 35 21 28 0 12 4 LEANS LIB
Halifax West Lib. 49 27 9 0 13 3 LIB
Kings—Hants Lib. 49 30 0 0 17 4 LIB
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook Lib. 28 36 24 0 10 2 LEANS CON
South Shore—St. Margarets Lib. 48 30 9 0 9 3 LIB
Sydney—Victoria Lib. 55 22 8 0 10 5 LIB
West Nova Lib. 43 38 3 0 13 3 LEANS LIB

Prince Edward Island (PEI) riding-by-riding vote projection

Riding name: Incumbent Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Projected winner
Cardigan Lib. 41 26 4 0 24 5 LIB
Charlottetown Lib. 35 35 15 0 13 2 TOSS-UP
Egmont Lib. 42 37 11 0 9 1 LEANS LIB
Malpeque Lib. 43 30 6 0 20 2 LIB

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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