2019 Canadian Federal Election

last updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 16:05 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected nationwide vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
28.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.9%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 31.9%
Change since last election: ▼7.7%
35.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
28.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
31.8%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 31.8%
Change since last election: ▼0.2%
35% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
16.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
18.5%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 18.5%
Change since last election: ▼1.3%
20.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
6.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.4%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 7.4%
Change since last election: ▲2.7%
8.1% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
6.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
7.3%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 7.3%
Change since last election: ▲3.9%
8% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
2.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
3.1%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 3.1%
Change since last election: ▲2.5%
3.4% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected nationwide seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
111 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
142
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 142
Change since last election: ▼42
157 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
106 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
122
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 122
Change since last election: ▲23
143 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
24 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
37
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 37
Change since last election: ▼7
54 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
22 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
34
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 34
Change since last election: ▲24
45 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
1
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 1
Change since last election: ▲0
10 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲2
6 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all national polls published

(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Nanos 2019-10-20 31.7 32.5 20.8 7.2 6 1.8 0.112
Mainstreet 2019-10-20 31.6 32.2 18.3 7.9 6.1 3.9 0.094
Research Co. 2019-10-20 32 31 19 7 8 3 0.094
Ekos 2019-10-20 34.2 30 18.3 5 8.1 4.4 0.067
Campaign 2019-10-20 31.4 31.3 17.8 6.6 9.1 3.8 0.094
Ipsos 2019-10-19 31 33 18 7 6 5 0.08
Abacus 2019-10-19 34 32 16 8 8 2 0.087
Nanos 2019-10-19 31 31.5 18.8 7 9.5 2.2 0
Campaign 2019-10-19 31.7 31.4 17.4 6.6 9.1 3.8 0
Forum 2019-10-18 31.7 29.9 17.5 9 8.3 3.6 0.094
Leger 2019-10-18 33 33 18 8 6 2 0.113
Mainstreet 2019-10-18 32.8 31.9 18.3 7.2 5.5 4.3 0
Nanos 2019-10-18 32.6 30.3 18.4 7.1 9.3 2.3 0
Campaign 2019-10-18 31 31 18 7 9 4 0
Innovative 2019-10-17 34 30 19 6 8 3 0.044
Innovative 2019-10-17 33 31 14 9 8 5 0
Ekos 2019-10-17 31 32.5 17.6 5.5 7.9 5.5 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-17 32.1 31.9 18.8 7.6 5.8 3.8 0
Nanos 2019-10-17 31.5 31.6 19 6.2 9.5 2.2 0
DART 2019-10-16 29 33 21 8 7 2 0.062
Forum 2019-10-16 30 29 20 7 8 6 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-16 31.9 30.9 18.6 7.6 7 4 0
Nanos 2019-10-16 31.5 32.5 18.9 6 9.2 1.9 0
Ekos 2019-10-15 31.2 31.8 18.4 6.4 6.8 0.8 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-15 30.9 30.6 18.3 7.9 7.7 4.6 0
Nanos 2019-10-15 31.9 32.5 18.8 5.9 9.4 1.5 0
Angus Reid 2019-10-15 29 33 19 8 8 3 0.06
Mainstreet 2019-10-14 30.7 31.1 17.2 8.1 8.5 4.4 0
Ipsos 2019-10-13 30 32 20 7 8 3 0
Mainstreet 2019-10-13 30.7 32.3 16.6 7.8 8.3 4.3 0

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

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