2019 Canadian Federal Election
last updated: Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)
Projected nationwide vote totals
| PARTY | VOTE PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
Liberal  |
31.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 34.5%
Most likely vote total: 34.5%
Change since last election: ▼5% 38%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Conservative  |
31.1%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 34.5%
Most likely vote total: 34.5%
Change since last election: ▲2.6% 38%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
NDP  |
10.8%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 12%
Most likely vote total: 12%
Change since last election: ▼7.7% 13.2%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Bloc  |
4.6%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 5.1%
Most likely vote total: 5.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.4% 5.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Green  |
8.7%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 9.6%
Most likely vote total: 9.6%
Change since last election: ▲6.2% 10.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Other  |
3.8%
Lowest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval 4.2%
Most likely vote total: 4.2%
Change since last election: ▲3.4% 4.6%
Highest projected vote total @ 90% confidence interval |
Projected nationwide seat totals
| PARTY | SEAT PROJECTIONS |
|---|---|
| Liberal |
135 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 163
Most likely seat total: 163
Change since last election: ▼21 182 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Conservative |
118 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 138
Most likely seat total: 138
Change since last election: ▲39 158 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| NDP |
11 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 19
Most likely seat total: 19
Change since last election: ▼25 35 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Bloc |
5 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 13
Most likely seat total: 13
Change since last election: ▲3 26 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Green |
1 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 3
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2 13 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
| Other |
0 Lowest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval 2
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲2 7 Highest projected seat total @ 90% confidence interval |
Trend lines of all national polls published
(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:
*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.
| Polling Firm: | Date: | Lib. | Con. | NDP | Bloc | Green | Other | Poll weight: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos | 2019-09-20 | 32 | 36.8 | 13.7 | 5.4 | 9 | 3.1 | 0.191 |  |
| Mainstreet | 2019-09-19 | 36.8 | 34.2 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 0.141 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-19 | 34.2 | 37.4 | 12.8 | 3.5 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2019-09-18 | 37.2 | 34.4 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 0 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-18 | 35 | 37.8 | 11.8 | 4 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0 | |
| Leger | 2019-09-17 | 34 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 0.155 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-17 | 35.5 | 37.2 | 13.6 | 4 | 7 | 2.7 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2019-09-16 | 36.5 | 35 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2019-09-16 | 33 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0.091 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-16 | 34.9 | 35.9 | 15.4 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0 | |
| Innovative | 2019-09-15 | 35 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 0.056 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-15 | 34 | 34.4 | 16.4 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-14 | 35.2 | 32.3 | 16.6 | 3.8 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2019-09-13 | 35 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0.079 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-13 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 15.7 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 3 | 0 | |
| DART | 2019-09-11 | 32 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 0.063 | |
| Forum | 2019-09-11 | 32.4 | 36.3 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 11.6 | 7 | 0.104 | |
| Leger | 2019-09-09 | 34 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 0 | |
| Mainstreet | 2019-09-08 | 37.5 | 34 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 0 | |
| Nanos | 2019-09-06 | 34.6 | 30.7 | 16.5 | 4 | 11 | 3.2 | 0 | |
| Campaign | 2019-09-05 | 34 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 0.073 | |
| Innovative | 2019-09-05 | 33 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nanos | 2019-08-30 | 35.4 | 31.3 | 15.7 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2019-08-29 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 0.047 | |
| Leger | 2019-08-29 | 34 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 0 | |
| Angus Reid | 2019-08-26 | 32 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 0 | |
| Ekos | 2019-08-23 | 33.1 | 34.1 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 0 | |
| Nanos | 2019-08-23 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | |
| Leger | 2019-08-19 | 33 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 0 | |
| Ipsos | 2019-08-19 | 33 | 35 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | |
Interactive map: Projected election results
click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown
Regional projections & riding-level data
What are these numbers?
The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.
The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.