2019 Canadian Federal Election

last updated: Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:00 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Projected nationwide vote totals

PARTYVOTE PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
31.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
34.5%
Liberal logo
Most likely vote total: 34.5%
Change since last election: ▼5%
38% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
31.1% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
34.5%
Tory logo
Most likely vote total: 34.5%
Change since last election: ▲2.6%
38% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
10.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
12%
NDP logo
Most likely vote total: 12%
Change since last election: ▼7.7%
13.2% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
4.6% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
5.1%
Bloc logo
Most likely vote total: 5.1%
Change since last election: ▲0.4%
5.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
8.7% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
9.6%
Green logo
Most likely vote total: 9.6%
Change since last election: ▲6.2%
10.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
3.8% Lowest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval
4.2%
All other parties
Most likely vote total: 4.2%
Change since last election: ▲3.4%
4.6% Highest projected vote total
@ 90% confidence interval

Projected nationwide seat totals

PARTYSEAT PROJECTIONS
Liberal Liberal logo
135 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
163
Liberal logo
Most likely seat total: 163
Change since last election: ▼21
182 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Conservative Tory logo
118 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
138
Tory logo
Most likely seat total: 138
Change since last election: ▲39
158 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
NDP NDP logo
11 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
19
NDP logo
Most likely seat total: 19
Change since last election: ▼25
35 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Bloc Bloc logo
5 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
13
Bloc logo
Most likely seat total: 13
Change since last election: ▲3
26 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Green Bloc logo
1 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
3
Green logo
Most likely seat total: 3
Change since last election: ▲2
13 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
Other All other parties
0 Lowest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval
2
All other parties
Most likely seat total: 2
Change since last election: ▲2
7 Highest projected seat total
@ 90% confidence interval

Trend lines of all national polls published

(Almost*) All Canadian federal election opinion polls:

*Some polls are behind a paywall and cannot be republished on this website.
These polls are currently represented as N/A to indicate that they are used in the projection.

Polling Firm: Date: Lib. Con. NDP Bloc Green Other Poll weight:
Nanos 2019-09-20 32 36.8 13.7 5.4 9 3.1 0.191
Mainstreet 2019-09-19 36.8 34.2 10.1 4.7 9.8 4.4 0.141
Nanos 2019-09-19 34.2 37.4 12.8 3.5 9.3 2.8 0
Mainstreet 2019-09-18 37.2 34.4 9.8 4.4 10.1 4.1 0
Nanos 2019-09-18 35 37.8 11.8 4 7.7 3.7 0
Leger 2019-09-17 34 33 12 5 11 5 0.155
Nanos 2019-09-17 35.5 37.2 13.6 4 7 2.7 0
Mainstreet 2019-09-16 36.5 35 9.6 4.3 9.9 4.7 0
Angus Reid 2019-09-16 33 36 13 5 9 4 0.091
Nanos 2019-09-16 34.9 35.9 15.4 4.7 6.5 2.6 0
Innovative 2019-09-15 35 32 14 4 11 4 0.056
Nanos 2019-09-15 34 34.4 16.4 4.4 7.8 3 0
Nanos 2019-09-14 35.2 32.3 16.6 3.8 9.6 2.5 0
Ipsos 2019-09-13 35 35 14 4 9 3 0.079
Nanos 2019-09-13 35.4 32.8 15.7 3.6 9.5 3 0
DART 2019-09-11 32 35 15 6 8 4 0.063
Forum 2019-09-11 32.4 36.3 8.6 4.1 11.6 7 0.104
Leger 2019-09-09 34 35 11 5 11 4 0
Mainstreet 2019-09-08 37.5 34 8.4 3.6 10.8 5.7 0
Nanos 2019-09-06 34.6 30.7 16.5 4 11 3.2 0
Campaign 2019-09-05 34 34 12 4 12 4 0.073
Innovative 2019-09-05 33 34 13 5 11 4 0
Nanos 2019-08-30 35.4 31.3 15.7 4.4 10.3 2.9 0
Ekos 2019-08-29 37.2 32.9 7.2 5.5 10.4 6.8 0.047
Leger 2019-08-29 34 33 12 5 12 4 0
Angus Reid 2019-08-26 32 36 14 4 9 5 0
Ekos 2019-08-23 33.1 34.1 10.4 5.1 11.2 6.1 0
Nanos 2019-08-23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0
Leger 2019-08-19 33 33 11 4 13 6 0
Ipsos 2019-08-19 33 35 18 3 9 2 0

Interactive map: Projected election results

click on any riding to see projected vote breakdown

What are these numbers?

The data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data. CalculatedPolitics.ca is not a polling firm itself.

The accuracy of these projections is dependent upon the overall accuracy of the polling industry and we make no assurances of the polling industry’s accuracy in this or any other election.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!